Chemical tanker spot rates are rebounding

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK480.00) - Attractive Tankers-driven cocktai...

Tanker rates are healthy, and the outlook is solid on a record-high tanker fleet age and limited 2025e deliveries. We believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as attractive, trading at an average 2025–2026e adj. P/E of 4.3x (tanker peers 5.5x), despite other segments with more stable revenues accounting for c40% of our 2026e EBIT, which should allow for a premium, in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK480 (540).

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Stolt-Nielsen Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q4 report, adjusted near-term guidance and announced growth projects. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK540 target price. Stolt-Nilsen still screens as highly appealing exposure to the tanker market, in our view, with a favourable outlook for 2025 on prospects for volume growth, limited 3% deliveries, an aging fleet and >10% of the today’s fleet facing sanctions. Hence, ...

Dividends could lift valuation

ABGSC Shipping Daily 30 January

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG up, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.75x, BW LPG: Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates, SNI Q1: Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK540.00) - Highly appealing tanker exposure

We see solid prospects for tanker markets in 2025, based on volume growth, deliveries of just 3%, an ageing fleet, and >10% of today’s fleet facing sanctions, all supporting freight rates beyond the near term. We calculate a 24% earnings yield for Stolt-Nielsen on our 2025e rates and the stock is trading at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.7x (versus 4.0x for the tanker peer group). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK540 (530).

Downside to '25e consensus, but upside to DPS

Chemical tanker rates down 34% since peak; '25e-'26e down on lower rate assumptions; TP NOK 411 (515), BUY

Stolt-Nielsen Limited: 1 director

A director at Stolt-Nielsen Limited bought 50,000 shares at 276.610NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK530.00) - Bullish sentiment to reawaken

We believe the tanker market should improve from recent softness and see solid rates towards end-2024e and into 2025–2026e, with chemical tanker rates to be fuelled by improving chemical trade, a still healthy orderbook, and reduced swing tonnage. We calculate a 19% average 2025–2026e earnings yield, and believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as an appealing tanker exposure, trading at a 2025–2026e average EV/EBITDA of 4.1x (tanker peer group: 4.6x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...