EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: solid, good, 3Q24 results in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 3Q24 in line, but we may be at the peak NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, 2% above consensus on one-offs; EBITDAaL excluding one-offs in line; 2024E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: full 3Q24 results below preliminaries NEGATIVE • CEZ: Babis promoting a buyout of the CEZ minorities POSITIVE • Eurowag: solid 3Q24 trading update POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG keeps ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October) • PKO BP: PLN 994m of CHF mortgage saga provisions in 3Q24E NEUTRAL • AmRest/Sphera Group: Wendy’s entering CEE NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • Santander Bank Polska: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Komercni Banka: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October)
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 2Q24 NEGATIVE • GEK Terna: 1H24 EBITDA climbs 7%, to EUR 269m, as broadly expected NEUTRAL • Jumbo: 1H24 results in line, EGM approves share buyback plan NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the 2Q24 results call POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: appoints Marcin Zygmanowicz and dismisses Magdalena Zmitrowicz from the management board NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Solorz announces plans to dismiss his children from the company NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: signs new PLN 12.2m contract for “e...
A director at Med Life SA sold 1,500,000 shares at 5.710RON and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: room for further rerating (stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: writes down remaining goodwill on retail banking fully in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • Text: 1Q24-25 (calendar 2Q24) results – EBITDA down 2% yoy, but 5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Sphera Group: strong 2Q24 results, as expected NEUTRAL • MedLife: 2Q24 confirms operational earnings recovery, net profits still weak NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q24 results – weak net income, due to one-off costs NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: earnings cal...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: posts strong 2Q24 and upgrades medium-term COR outlook POSITIVE • Alior Bank: management board nominations POSITIVE • Erste Banks: books solid 2Q24; guides for 2024E DPS at an attractive level; awaiting opening conclusions from the new CEO POSITIVE • Tofas: highly weak set of results in 2Q24 NEGATIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q24 highlights – positive 2H24E, with guidance upgrade • NLB Group: solid print in 2Q24, beating estimates, due to release of provisions POSITIVE...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: Hungarian government working on extra industry charges to aid budget deficit NEGATIVE • OMV: 2Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • NLB Group: Alta Pay withdraws request to acquire qualifying holding in Addiko Bank POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 July) • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24E preview (due on 24 July) • Alior Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • ING BSK: 2Q24E preview (due on 7 August)
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) results – EBITDA down 12% yoy, 11% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: giving credit where credit is due, but keep realistic lags in mind • PKO BP: partial resolutions of AGM, dividend approved, AGM paused • Poland macro: CPI well-behaved, wage growth still soaring • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24 CHF mortgage saga charges of PLN 1,109m NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: calls to improve Air Traffic Control in Europe in wake of delays NEGATIVE • Public Power Cor...
HEADLINES: • EME Strategy: Türkiye - inflation accounting - demystifying the enigma • Greek refiners: Finance Ministry to impose an unexpected windfall tax on refiners • GEK Terna: agrees to sell Terna Energy to Masdar of Abu Dhabi • LPP: the Prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation against Hindenburg Research • Uzbekistan macro: notes from our recent trip • Short news (MTELEKOM)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how big should the political risk premium in Europe be? • Lamda Development: 1Q24 – with the wind in its sails • BIM: strong set of results in 1Q24 POSITIVE • LPP: 1Q24 strong, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • CCC: 1Q24 results in line with prelims; positive trends maintained in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • US macro: Fed pushes back on rate cuts • Jahez: announces SAR 150m real estate purchase NEUTRAL • Text: 4Q23-24E preview – 1% yoy EBITDA drop expected (due...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: strong capital position, strong returns (stays BUY) • NLB Group: presentation of offer to Addiko shareholders – takeaways NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: concludes conditional agreement to acquire Romanian travel e-commerce business POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling JV increases its stake in Gordon Technologies POSITIVE • Richter: Mithra declares bankruptcy, Richter talks continue NEUTRAL • OMV: starts up co-processing biofuels plant at Schwechat refinery NEUTRAL • LPP: 1Q24E result...
A director at Hellenic Bank sold 1,686,245 shares at 2.560EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
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