reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: RO Oil & Gas; AKCNS TI; EME Macro/Strategy – Dividends; HU...
HEADLINES: • Romanian oil & gas: just have a little patience (OMV Petrom stays BUY, Romgaz downgraded to HOLD – transfer of coverage) • Akcansa: recovery on the horizon (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – if growth is in doubt, opt for payout • Huuuge Games: 3Q24 broadly in line with our expectations, slightly above the consensus NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: 3Q24 results – slow quarter; FY24E guidance confirmed NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: CBT signals a dovish turn • Cyfrowy Polsat:...
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (21 November 2024)
HEADLINES: • PZU: 3Q24 not as weak as feared – once the special claims end, should deliver a very strong profitability profile POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 13% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, 3% above our forecast and 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • OPAP: 3Q24 earnings beat expectations, as EBITDA jumps 24% yoy POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Elbit Syste...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EXAE GA; EME Macro/Strategy – Central Asia and the Caucasu...
HEADLINES: • Athens Exchange Group: set sail to dividend wonderland (BUY - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Central Asia and the Caucasus – USD 1,000bn GDP by 2030! • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year-Ahead issue • Graphisoft Park: 3Q24 – on course for another good year POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: rather neutral set of 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher CASKX alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel CASK (in line with the consensus) • Bank of...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OTP HB; CCC PW; DNP PW; INPST NA; MOL HB; WIZZ LN; EUROB G...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...
MOL MOL NYRT
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
CCC CCC SA
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
NLBR NLB GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PEO PW; PKO PW; WIZZ LN; BVB RO; TBCG LN; CTPNV NA; AIRA L...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts strong 3Q24; one of the cheapest among the Polish banks, but remains hostage to merger risk • PKO BP: 3Q24 results – no major surprises • Wizz Air: 2Q FY25 – small miss, with better fuel, but higher ex-fuel cask than we expected NEUTRAL • Bucharest Stock Exchange: weak 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 3Q24 results and conference call POSITIVE • CTP: 3Q24 in line; development-led growth continues NEUTRAL • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 EBITDA up by 10% yoy, exceeding the ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ILRA CZ; MGROS TI; KLKIM TI; FROTO TI; TUPRS TI; THYAO TI;...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: ADRs growth pace cools, cost inflation persists (NOT RATED) • Migros: good set of operating results in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Kalekim: strong bottom-line performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 3Q24 results – quarterly margin improvement tempered by lower export guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q24 results – net income beats the consensus; comment on the fire at the Izmit refinery NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – strong cargo and investments offset steep growth in staff cost...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
ILRA-R-A ILIRIJA D.D.
CTPNV CTP NV
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
SHO SHOPER SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MTELEKOM HB; SHO PW; THYAO TI; CCOLA TI; TOASO TI; AIRA LI...
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: another record strong year ahead (stays BUY) • Shoper: 3Q24 adjusted EBITDA up 28% yoy, broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – EBIT and EBITDA in line with our estimates, 4-5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: weak results in 3Q24, revenue growth guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Tofas: highly weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • Isbank: 3Q24 highlights – core bank still loss makin...
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
SHO SHOPER SA
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only the Czech Republic in the bla...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
R22 R22
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EBS AV; MBK PW; ING PW; JMT PL; KOMB CP; MCOVB SS; TKNSA T...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 3Q24 results – strong NII delivery • mBank: underlying 3Q34 business delivery in line; beat on headline net profit due to tax charges NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24 results – minor miss on high credit risk charges, as corporate NPL ratio surges NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 3Q24, Biedronka at -2% lfl and stable margin erosion; price war continues POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: 3Q24 results – net profit largely in line with expectations • Medicover: 3Q24 operating numbers in l...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MIL PW; SPL PW; OMV AV; SNP RO; BDX PW; EUR PW
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E strategy implies a return to growth and more of a focus on the corporate segment POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: 3Q24 results in line; key focus on 2025-28E strategic update • Santander Bank Polska: posts solid 3Q24 profits, as NII peaks and FX mortgage saga costs are very low for the quarter • OMV: 3Q24 results – CCS EBIT in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 results in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Budimex: key takea...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E stra...
Millennium has published its 2025-28E strategic targets, with a 2028E reported ROE of a minimum of 18%. Our current explicit forecasts for Bank Millennium end in 2026E and imply a headline ROE of 15.5% and an adjusted ROE of 20.7%, with headline 2026E net profit of PLN 1.44bn and adjusted net profit of PLN 1.94bn. It is hard to compare our current forecasts with the bank’s targets, which reach out two years ahead, but we believe that our 2024-26E forecasts lay out a sensible path to achieving a ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ACP PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; GE Macro; ARCLK TI; SOL...
HEADLINES: • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound slower than expected (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (21-27 October) • Georgia macro: early takes following the parliamentary election • Arcelik: weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: 3Q24 EBIT marginally above our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 3Q24 conference call takeaways • PKO BP: three of four largest minority shareholders act jointly to call EGM...
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
SNP PETROM S.A.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – PKO BP: 2024-27E strategic targets
PKO BP has published its 2024-27E strategic targets, communicating a minimum 2027E ROE target of 18%. Management has also committed to dividend payments/buybacks. The strategy is based on seven business pillars, many of them targeting market share increases. The current strategic KPIs are just a notch above our current financial forecasts for PKO BP and, thus, we see some minor upside risk for our current medium-term forecasts for the bank. We note that our current explicit forecasts reach out o...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MONET CP; ALR PW; OPL PW; KTY PW; CEZ CP; WPS LN; GE Macro...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: solid, good, 3Q24 results in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 3Q24 in line, but we may be at the peak NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, 2% above consensus on one-offs; EBITDAaL excluding one-offs in line; 2024E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: full 3Q24 results below preliminaries NEGATIVE • CEZ: Babis promoting a buyout of the CEZ minorities POSITIVE • Eurowag: solid 3Q24 trading update POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG keeps ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: FTSHP CP; PL Macro; SAR GA; HU Macro; PKO PW; WPL PW; MYTI...
HEADLINES: • Footshop (FTSHP CP): a sneakerhead’s dream – soft coverage (NOT RATED) • Poland macro: weaker consumption boosts prospects for early rate cuts • Sarantis: 3Q trading update in line, FY24E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB signals a longer pause • PKO BP: CEO Midera gives the gist of key strategic directions in Puls Biznesu interview NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: Wakacje.pl and Itaka extend cooperation NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 9M24 trading update preview (due ou...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; LPP PW; GEV CP; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KSPI US; ALARABIA AB; SOLUTION AB; HTO GA; GR macro/banks;...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: agrees to acquire Türkiye's Hepsiburada NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q24 highlights - on track to meet guidance NEUTRAL • Al Arabia: MBC Group sells 4.9% of shares of Al Arabia NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: establishment of JV with Jedco completed NEUTRAL • OTE: ANAF imposes EUR 33.5m in additional tax charges related to alleged VAT and CIT miscalculations NEGATIVE • Greece macro/banks: BOG increases the countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0.25%, with effect from October 2025E N...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ASELS TI; KTY PW; KAP LI; SHO PW; MIL PW; BHW PW; VRC PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ELPE GA; MOH GA; VGO PW; ALE PW; INPST NA; OPL PW; CPS PW;...
HEADLINES: • Greek oil refiners: need a little time to shake things up (HELLENiQ Energy downgraded to HOLD, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q24 sales down 5% yoy, to PLN 15.7m NEGATIVE • Allegro: announces another change in CEO post NEGATIVE • InPost: acquisition of remaining 70% stake in Menzies for GBP 60m POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • Polish media: TVN put on sale for PLN 5bn, according to Newsweek NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24E prev...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; PKO PW; EAT PW; SFG RO; ALR PW;...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October) • PKO BP: PLN 994m of CHF mortgage saga provisions in 3Q24E NEUTRAL • AmRest/Sphera Group: Wendy’s entering CEE NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • Santander Bank Polska: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Komercni Banka: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October)
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