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Emmanuel Matot ... (+3)
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean Danjou
  • Oliver Metzger

ODDO BHF Small & MIDC AP MORNING NEWS - 07/02/2024

The ‘quality growth’ ODDO BHF London Forum took place last week with 20 companies from Germany, Benelux, Spain and France in attendance. We organised 289 meetings, with around 100 investors. Going into the Q2 2024 earnings season, the stance was, unsurprisingly, largely in line with recent statements. But we were favourably impressed by CIE Automotive, ID Logistics (target price raised to € 410 vs € 380), Spie, TKH, Fugro and Lectra. We have adjusted our forecasts for five companies (...

Emmanuel Matot ... (+3)
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean Danjou
  • Oliver Metzger

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/07/2024

Le ODDO BHF London Forum ‘quality growth’ s’est déroulé la semaine dernière avec 20 sociétés allemandes, du Bénélux, espagnoles ou françaises. Nous avons organisé 289 meetings, avec une centaine d’investisseurs. A l’approche des résultats du T2 2024, les discours ont, sans surprise, peu dévié des communications récentes. Mais, nous avons été favorablement impressionnés par CIE Automotive, ID Logistics (OC relevé à 410 € vs 380 €), Spie, TKH, Fugro et Lectra. Nous avons modifié nos pré...

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

SIF : New factory start-up in July: harvesting season to start in 2025

>2025e/26e EBITDA estimates up by 5%/12% - Following last weeks’ site visit to the factory expansion project at the Maasvlakte, near Rotterdam, and the confirmation that Sif now has signed a new large transition piece contract for 2025 (100 TPs for Baltyk 2&3 = 30 kt), and expects to sign new monopile contracts for 2026 before end of the year, we today are upgrading our estimates for the coming years.Prime reason for the rise in our 2024e earnings estimates is th...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+3)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Thijs Berkelder
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/01/2024

By calling a snap election in the hope of bringing a majority of voters back to a centrist bloc, Emmanuel Macron has gambled with the Constitution. And he lost. Yesterday's election, marked by a jump in turnout (+20pt vs 2022), confirmed the dominance of the National Rally (RN). There are now two possible scenarios. One is an absolute majority for the RN, enabling it to "conduct the nation's policy"... until a possible dissolution in a year's time. The other is a divided parliament, f...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+3)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Thijs Berkelder
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 01/07/2024

En provoquant des élections anticipées dans l’espoir de ramener une majorité d’électeurs vers un bloc centriste, Emmanuel Macron a joué avec la Constitution. Il a perdu. L’élection d’hier marquée par un bond de la participation (+20pts vs 2022) a confirmé la domination du Rassemblement National. Deux scénarios subsistent. L’un est une majorité absolue pour le RN lui permettant de "conduire la politique de la nation"… jusqu’à une possible dissolution dans un an. L’autre est une parleme...

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

SIF : Expansion project still on track

>Feedback site visit + management Q&A - On Friday June 28 Sif organised a sell-side analyst site visit to the newly expanded factory on the Maasvlakte near Rotterdam, starting up with a presentation by CEO Fred van Beers, CFO Ben Meijer, project integration manager Jeroen Talsma and IR Fons van Lith. Main topics discussed: Order intake. Sif indicates it is very close to signing a large transition piece contract with will fill the occupancy of the Roermond plant in 202...

Jeremy Garnier
  • Jeremy Garnier

ODDO : ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum: Feedback from day three

>Feedback from 52 companies present on day three - Our 13th edition of the ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum takes place on June 4 and 5 in Paris, and on June 6 virtually. Following the third day, which took place yesterday virtually at our Paris office with 52 companies in attendance, we publish hereafter feedback for those companies present:Aedas HomesLhyfeAfyrenMaisons Du MondeAltamirMcPhy EnergyAltriMister SpexAtresmediaNein...

Jeremy Garnier
  • Jeremy Garnier

ODDO : ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum : Feedbacks 3ème journée

>Feedback de 52 sociétés présentes le 3ème jour - Notre 13ème édition du ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum a lieu les 4 et 5 juin en physique à Paris et le 6 juin en virtuel. Suite à la troisième journée qui a eu lieu hier en virtuel avec 53 de sociétés présentes, nous publions ci-après un feedback pour chacune des sociétés couvertes :Aedas HomesLhyfeAfyrenMaisons Du MondeAltamirMcphy EnergyAltriMister SpexAtresmediaNeinor Homes§...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/17/2024

Growth momentum remains solid, and the publication of Q1 sales bodes well for the future (12.5% organic growth, including 27% for Aerospace). Margins are set to pick up in 2024 (by an estimated 110bp), with the underlying operating profit expected to jump 33%. With good visibility for Aerospace, medium-term potential for Automotive and profitable growth for Medical, we estimate the potential for margin improvement at no less than 500bp in the medium term. We are raising our underlying...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/05/2024

La dynamique de croissance reste solide et la publication du CA T1 est de bon augure (croissance organique de 12.5% dont 27% pour l’Aerospace). 2024 devrait voir un redressement des marges (+110 pb estimés) pour un ROC attendu en hausse de 33%. A l’appui d’une bonne visibilité pour l’aéronautique, d’un potentiel MT pour l’automobile et d’une croissance profitable pour le Médical, nous estimons le potentiel d’amélioration des marges à au moins 500 pb à MT. Nous relevons nos estimations...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Walmart 1Q24/25 results. Azelis: Share placement by EQT and PSP. Belgian telcos: Digi mobile prices to be well below competition, targets 10% mkt share. EVS: Slow start, sales guidance held on strong pipeline, EBIT guidance below consensus. Exmar: Stable start to the year. Prosus: Fabricio Bloisi (CEO iFood) appointed as group CEO. Sif Group: 1Q24 pretty much in line, timing shifts a bit

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

SIF : Weaker than expected Q1 performance

>Production down 13% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA down 26% - Production in 24Q1 is down 13% y-o-y to 42kt from 48kt, indicating it is on track for 165kt for FY24, in-line with previous guidance and down 14% from 192kt in 2023. Monopiles and transition pieces were manufactured for Dogger Bank C. In addition, SIF manufactured smaller diameter components for offshore steel structures, mostly gas jackets and substations.Contribution margin is down 1.2% y-o-y to € 33.6m (fr...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: Busy BEES. Ahold Delhaize: Small beat, comforting confirmation of 2024 guidance. AMG: 1Q24 better than expected, FY guidance intact, strategic projects on schedule. Bekaert: Soft start to the year with 7% sales miss, FY guidance maintained. Euronav: Transformation at full speed. Marel: Another lacklustre quarter. Montea: 2025 guidance raised, valuations moving into positive territory. SBM Offshore: In-line Q1 trading update. Sif Group: Preview - normal quarter e...

Anthony Dick ... (+4)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Joan Sehim
  • Michael Foundoukidis
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/15/2024

After a terrible start to the year with the fall in gas prices and interest rate pressures, utilities have staged a slight recovery since the second half of February thanks to an uptick in electricity prices and slight decline in long rates. The most recent US macro figures support our scenario of higher long rates in the coming months, stymieing a sector recovery. A recovery will have to wait for a hypothetical collapse in consumer spending in Europe and the first policy rate cuts by...

Anthony Dick ... (+4)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Joan Sehim
  • Michael Foundoukidis
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 15/03/2024

Après un début d’année horribilis avec la chute des prix du gaz et les tensions sur les taux, les Utilities ont marqué un léger rebond depuis la deuxième moitié de février grâce à un rebond des prix de l’électricité et un léger reflux des taux longs. Les derniers chiffres macro US soutiennent notre scénario de taux longs plus hauts dans les mois qui viennent, empêchant le rebond du secteur. Celui-ci devra attendre un hypothétique effondrement de la consommation en Europe et les premiè...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

GBL: NAV better, record discount, new private investments rather expected in 2025-26. Sif Group: 4Q EBITDA in line, 2024 outlook 22% below. Vonovia: Results in line, write-offs decelerated, DPS up, new dividend policy announced

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

SIF : Better than expected profit delivery

>2023 production below but profitability above our expectation - Production: 192 kton (AAOB 196 kt; 169kt in 2022); 141 monopiles and 182 transition pieces (130 monopiles and 126 transition pieces in 2022)Contribution margin up 14% y-o-y to EUR 149.0m (AAOB EUR 146.2m; 2022: EUR 130.5m)Adjusted EBITDA up 1% to EUR 42.4m (AAOB EUR 39.8m, 2022: EUR 41.5m)Reported net earnings up 51% to EUR 10.9m (AAOB adj. Net results EUR 9.2m; 2022 EUR 7.2m - adjusted EU...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

JDE Peet's: No Fool. Sif Group: Preview – all eyes on new facility. Staffing: French data - January weaker as expected but February outlook better. Staffing: US temp volume trend stabilizing, job market data strong but not broadly based. Vopak: Banyan becoming even more multifunctional

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