Stolt-Nielsen Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q4 report, adjusted near-term guidance and announced growth projects. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK540 target price. Stolt-Nilsen still screens as highly appealing exposure to the tanker market, in our view, with a favourable outlook for 2025 on prospects for volume growth, limited 3% deliveries, an aging fleet and >10% of the today’s fleet facing sanctions. Hence, ...

Dividends could lift valuation

ABGSC Shipping Daily 30 January

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG up, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.75x, BW LPG: Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates, SNI Q1: Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Q4 beat, guides for lower TCE in Q1

Lower terminal fees imply upside to rates

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK540.00) - Highly appealing tanker exposure

We see solid prospects for tanker markets in 2025, based on volume growth, deliveries of just 3%, an ageing fleet, and >10% of today’s fleet facing sanctions, all supporting freight rates beyond the near term. We calculate a 24% earnings yield for Stolt-Nielsen on our 2025e rates and the stock is trading at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.7x (versus 4.0x for the tanker peer group). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK540 (530).

Downside to '25e consensus, but upside to DPS

Chemical tanker rates down 34% since peak; '25e-'26e down on lower rate assumptions; TP NOK 411 (515), BUY

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Strong potential at a discount

We see solid VLGC market prospects on limited deliveries and with the US adding close to 40% terminal capacity by end-2026e, supporting growth and the shipowners’ share of the 2025 USD60k/day arbitrage. Applying the arbitrage as our spot rate estimate results in a 26% earnings yield for 2025e. Thus, we believe BW LPG screens attractively, trading at a 0.7x EV/GAV, which values a 5-year-old VLGC 7% below the historical mean. We reiterate our BUY and NOK200 target price.

BW LPG Ltd: 1 director

Two Directors at BW LPG Ltd bought/maiden bought 3,000 shares at 10.000USD. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...

Stolt-Nielsen Limited: 1 director

A director at Stolt-Nielsen Limited bought 50,000 shares at 276.610NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...

Short-term estimates down, still a HOLD

Q3 above, Q4 guidance below

EBITDA of USD 190m (79% vs. ABGSC, 43% vs. cons.). Q4 guidance slightly below cons, but timing of AGAS deliveries could matter. Share price up 2-4%.s

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK530.00) - Bullish sentiment to reawaken

We believe the tanker market should improve from recent softness and see solid rates towards end-2024e and into 2025–2026e, with chemical tanker rates to be fuelled by improving chemical trade, a still healthy orderbook, and reduced swing tonnage. We calculate a 19% average 2025–2026e earnings yield, and believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as an appealing tanker exposure, trading at a 2025–2026e average EV/EBITDA of 4.1x (tanker peer group: 4.6x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...

Q4 tanker estimates down on lower guidance

Q4 tanker estimates down on lower guidance. ABGSCe in line with cons. for '25e EBITDA. TP NOK 515 (521), BUY.

Q3 miss and guides for lower TCE in Q4

Adj. EBITDA of USD 208m 4% below cons, 7% below ABGSCe. Segments: Terminals and Containers above expectations, Tankers and Sea Farm below. Guides for "lower" Tanker TCE, share to trade down 2-4%.