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Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 02 May 2024

2nd May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Smartspace Software (SMRT.L) has delisted from the AIM Market What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is pr...

Accsys Technologies: 2 directors

Two Directors at Accsys Technologies bought 74,205 shares at between 0.673EUR and 0.681EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Accsys Technologies - Updating estimates for guidance and capital rais...

In September 2023, Accsys warned of weaker market conditions in the building materials and construction markets and in November, it stated not to expect trading conditions to improve materially until mid-CY24. For FY24–25, we have lowered our revenue estimates by 8–18% and EBITDA by 68–79%. The construction of the Accoya plant in the US is on schedule for operation by mid-CY24 and management will undertake a review of the viability of the Tricoya project in the UK in early CY24. Accsys raised €2...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : New financing solves near term issues, Neutr...

We reiterate our Neutral rating, price target to €0.80 per share. The material additional investment requirements for Accoya USA caught us by surprise. The proceeds of the share issue and the convertible loan plus the amendment of the RCF and term loan ensure that the Accoya USA plant can be completed (>80% done) and that sufficient sales and marketing power can be applied to develop demand in the US to ensure that sales match the envisaged output. In a scenario where demand in E...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : A new chair supporting a new culture?

>New senior executive leadership across the board - Yesterday, (interim executive) chairman Stephen Odell informed the markets that he will not seek re-election on the September 20 AGM. With the appointment of a new CFO (April 1st 2023), CEO (1 July 2023) and a new chair, the senior leadership team of Accsys will have been completely revamped, including some senior hires just below the board. This revamp is understandable given the developments at Tricoya UK as well a...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Accsys Technologies - Warning of lower demand

In its trading update for the first four months of FY24, Accsys warned of weaker building materials and construction markets, caused by the higher interest rates and high inflation environment. Distributors are facing significantly lower volumes and high levels of destocking, which is now also felt by Accsys. Assuming market uncertainty continues, Accsys expects FY24 revenue to be below consensus and EBITDA to be significantly below consensus. We contacted the company and according to management...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : A profit warning that makes the alarm bells ...

>Kitchen sinking or something else? - The profit warning of last week, citing lower demand, may have included a kitchen sinking component by incoming CEO Arsic van Os but it also begged the question whether demand for the premium priced Accoya and Tricoya is as strong as always assumed. We lower our 2024 and 2025 sales and EBITDA estimates materially but, for now, assume that end market demand has not weakened structurally. Based on that assumption and these estimate...

Andreas Riemann ... (+3)
  • Andreas Riemann
  • Jean Danjou
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/01/2023 Date Performance sin...

Unlike the US, where the consensus has begun to revise up its 2023 EPS very modestly, the earnings season in Europe has not resulted in any positive revision.  From a sector standpoint, in Europe, autos & parts, utilities, banks, travel & leisure saw the consensus revise up its 2023 EPS growth estimates by more than 5 points. Conversely, telecoms, oil & gas, chemicals and basic resources saw the consensus lower its 2023 EPS growth estimates by more than 5 points; this has rarely guide...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : Trading update: softer demand experienced, 2...

>Unexpected trading update with negative news flow (softening demand) - Accsys has just issued a trading update for the first four months of fiscal FY24. The company says that sales and volumes in the first four months have been ahead of the prior year, which is positive and in line with our expectations. However, Accsys continues by saying that trading conditions have softened due to rising interest rates and higher inflation, resulting in lower construction activity...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Accsys Technologies - FY23 results better than expected

Accsys’s FY23 results were slightly better than expected, with mainly higher pricing making the difference. Revenue growth of 34% y-o-y was driven by volume growth of 6% and higher average sales prices. EBITDA was +120% y-o-y and clearly benefited from higher prices, more than offsetting the input pressure. There was no further news on the construction of the Accoya plant in the United States (on track and planned to be operational mid-2024) or the Tricoya plant in Hull (construction is still on...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : Strong Accoya operations allow for optionali...

Although we retain our Neutral rating and DCF based PT of € 1.15 per share, which is based on the current and future Accoya operations, there are scenarios in which additional value can be created, although a strategic partner for Tricoya UK is required. For now, we assume that the company will continue to defer making a go/no go decision about the Tricoya project and will focus on optimising Accoya operations in the Netherlands and completing the Accoya USA project without furth...

Maxime Kogge
  • Maxime Kogge

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 06/27/2023 Date Performance sin...

In the first half of the year, small and midcaps underperformed major indices in almost all regions, amid concerns over inflation, rising interest rates and lack of liquidity/momentum. We now believe midcaps can be reweighted: i/ valuations (2023 P/E: 14.2x - 2023 EV/EBITDA: 7x) offer at least one-off opportunities (discount close to 30% vs large caps), ii/ growth anticipated in 2023 is 4% higher and almost 7pts above the 169 large cap companies we cover, iii/ the imminent end to the ...

Maxime Kogge
  • Maxime Kogge

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 27/06/2023 Date Performance dep...

Au 1er semestre, affectées par les craintes de l’inflation, la remontée des taux et un manque de liquidités/momentum, les S&Midcap ont sous-performé les grands indices sur à peu près toutes les zones. A présent, il nous semble que l’on peut repondérer les midcap : i/ les valorisations (PE 23e : 14,2x - VE/EBITDA 23e : 7x) offrent ponctuellement au moins, des opportunités (décote proche de 30% par rapport au Large Cap), ii/ la croissance attendue est 4% supérieure pour le CA 23e et prè...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

Accsys Technologies plc : 2023 results better than expected, mixed new...

>Better than expected 2023 sales and EBITDA - Although Accsys already pre-released produced volumes and net debt, the company has today issued the full preliminary results. Sales beat our estimate by 8%, mainly due to higher than expected sales prices (including an energy surcharge) and higher volumes in Acoya Colour (4,000 m3 versus 2,000 m3 expected). Underlying EBITDA came in at €22.9m, beating our estimate by 8% while EBITDA was also higher than guided for (nearl...

Toby Thorrington
  • Toby Thorrington

Accsys Technologies - Stronger than expected volume growth in Q4

Accsys showed stronger than expected volume growth of 6% in FY23, beating our 1% estimate. Reactors 1–3 in Arnhem are in full production and the fourth is ramping up faster than we expected. There was no news on the Tricoya project in Hull, but construction of the Accoya plant in the US is delayed by four to five months and faces cost inflation. The company’s EBITDA guidance is now ‘moderately ahead’ of doubling to €20.8m previously. Our DCF value still points at €1.15 per share, including >€0.2...

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