Strong collection set to continue

Solid secured and unsecured collection

Over-collection in both unsecured (109%) and secured (~200%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 975m, +2% vs ABG and +1% vs cons; Stock flat to just up; Cons est rev. minor (ERC neg vs collection pos)

Sustainable high dividends and investments

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Frontline Plc: 1 director

A director at Frontline Plc bought 5,000 shares at 171.050NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Frontline Minor model adjustments

We have trimmed our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 1% after updating our forecasts for the Q4 report and Q1 guidance, and introduce our 2027 estimates. We remain positive on tanker fundamentals, particularly for VLCCs, with ~4% deliveries in 2025–2026e against ~23% of the fleet aged 20+ years at end-2026e. Along with potential catalysts such as sanctions and stricter enforcement (13% of the crude fleet is under sanctions, 11% for VLCCs), and Frontline’s current P/NAV of 0.88x (historical average ~1.2x), w...

Expect a high 60% total yield until '27e

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Supportive distribution outlook

Despite pressure on earnings from one-off costs in Q4, B2 Impact continues to report collection performance comfortably above 100%, while targeting a further ramp-up of NPL investments in 2025. We believe the aim of keeping DPS at NOK1.50 for 2025 supports our investment case, with the stock trading at a 2026e P/ B of ~0.7x. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, reiterating our BUY and NOK12 target price.

Secured miss, but solid dividends

Over-collection in unsecured (110%), under in secured (89%); Cash EBITDA of NOK 933m, -11% vs ABG and -9% vs cons (secured); Stock up 1-4% (inv./DPS), as cons est rev. 0-2% (Inv/fin)

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK305.00) - Sun breaking through the mist

We see strong fundamentals in the tanker space, particularly for VLCCs, driven by limited deliveries and an ageing fleet. Meanwhile, factors such as sanctions and disruption to Iranian oil flows could potentially further benefit compliant shipowners. We believe this leaves Frontline’s modern fleet in a strong position, and if a bull-market were to materialise, we see significant upside potential to our 14–21% dividend yields for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to ...