SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK142.00) - Back to positive NII tre...

Helped by a NOK15m gain from the Fremtind/Eika merger and renewed QOQ NII tailwinds, HELG reported a strong Q3 ROE of 12.9%. Loan losses were 17bp. With the report, the bank guided for a ~1%-point CET1 ratio benefit from the upcoming implementation of Basel IV, adding to its already generous dividend capacity. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2% and our target price to NOK142 (139). That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~10.0x, we continue to find the valuation fair and re...

SpareBank 1 Helgeland: Update following rating upgrade, outlook change...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its improved profitability and strong capitalisation, balanced against geographical concentration and some asset quality volatility.

YTD dry bulk rates are up 40%

Moody's Ratings upgrades SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit rat...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit and issuer ratings to A2 from A3. At the same time, we upgraded the Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA to baa1 from baa2, its short-term deposit ratings to P-1 from P-2, and its long-term Counterpar...

Still-encouraging profitability outlook

Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.

Golden Ocean (Sell, TP: NOK98.00) - Testing times ahead

Asset values are diverging from softer freight markets, with broker quotes for a 5-year Capesize vessel implying an 11x EV/EBITDA on current 1-year TCs. Further, we estimate that average Capesize index rates for 2025 would be required to be ~USD27k/day (48% above our estimate, 22% above current 1-year TCs) for Golden Ocean to reach a decent ~12% dividend yield on the current share price. Thus, we believe risk remains skewed to the downside and we reiterate our SELL. We have cut our target price ...

Dry bulk trade grows amid China worries

Short-term estimates down on lower guidance. ABGSCe 84% above consensus on '25e EBITDA. TP of NOK 199 – P/NAV 0.78x.

Q2 beat, but weak Q3 guiding

EBITDA USD 121m (ABGSC at USD 112m, cons at USD 116m). Q3'24 guidance below cons and ABGSCe. Stock down ~1-2% relative to peers.

2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising

While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...

SpareBank 1 Helgeland: 1 director

A director at SpareBank 1 Helgeland sold 80,000 shares at 127.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Buy, TP: NOK136.00) - Low loan losses, but marg...

Aided by low loan losses, HELG reported a solid Q2 ROE of 11.7% (>11% target) and pre-tax profit of ~6% above our estimate, despite somewhat elevated cost inflation. Meanwhile, with strong lending growth offset by margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell by 1.5% QOQ. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~4%, driven by lower NII and higher costs, and trimmed our target price to NOK136 (138). That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x and generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the va...

Q2e EBITDA up 16%

Short-term estimates up, long-term unchanged. ABGSCe 86% above cons. on '25e EBITDA. TP of NOK 199 (200) – P/NAV 0.84x.

Golden Ocean (Sell, TP: NOK136.00) - Still going strong

We maintain our negative view on dry bulk shipping, derived from what we believe are numerous unsustainable demand impulses seen in recent months centred on China. As we see demand resetting, we find asset valuations elevated and believe downside risks outweigh any upside potential medium-term. We reiterate our SELL on Golden Ocean, and have trimmed our target price to NOK136 (140).