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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist

Volvo AB: 3 directors

A director at Volvo AB maiden bought 15,000 shares at 262.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 91/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK125.00) - Order beat, earnings miss

We view the Q1 results as soft despite strong order growth of 16% organically YOY, with all divisions contributing to the beat. A miss on adj. EBITA was driven by lower sales and a weak Facade Access (FA) margin of 9.5% due to legacy projects and lower utilisation. Alimak stated that investment decisions for new tall buildings would continue to be postponed, and legacy projects phased out through 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK125 (140), having lowered our 2025–...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Volvo (Sell, TP: SEK240.00) - Margin starting to crack

Q1’s punchy order intake was a positive. However, soft US Truck margins, “slightly” negative pricing, mix headwinds for VCE and FX all point to earnings pressure still not being reflected in consensus (we are c15–16% below on 2025–2026e adj. EBIT after lowering our estimates by another c7%). Although the stock is starting to look attractive fundamentally, we expect sentiment to get worse before it gets better, reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to SEK240 (280).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Hannes Thorstensson
  • Hannes Thorstensson

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Mean reversion

We are in line with post-Q4 consensus on Q1 sales and adj. EBITA, as we forecast sales of SEK1,800m and an adj. EBITA margin of 18.2% (Q1 2024 16.4%). We expect a sequential decline in the Facade Access adj. EBITA margin, as it was boosted by contingency releases booked in Q4, but a recovery in Construction. We have lowered our 2025–2027e sales by 5% and adj. EBITA by 7% on average due to FX. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
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