Bravida Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Bravida Holding AB maiden bought 3,360 shares at 87.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK112.00) - Performing well; recovery in H2e

Bravida navigated the slow Nordic installation market well in Q4, with the market demand forecast turning positive for 2025–2026. We focus on the strong FCF generation and financials, attractive capital allocation, and market consolidation opportunities. With management seeing its 7% EBITA margin target as realistic for 2026 (our estimate 6.6%), the risk/reward looks attractive to us, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK112 target price.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK112.00) - Attractive case for 2025–2026e

Q3 was mixed, but Bravida navigated the slow Nordic installation market well, with the market demand forecast turning positive for 2025–2026. We focus on the strong FCF generation, attractive capital allocation, and market consolidation opportunities. With management seeing its 7% EBITA margin target as realistic for 2026 (our estimate 6.6%), the risk/reward looks attractive, with the starting point close to a record-low forward valuation. We reiterate our BUY and SEK112 target price.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK112.00) - Focus back on opportunities

Q2 met our estimates, with the market demand forecast turning positive into 2025–2026 and the own corporate governance issue seemingly well handled. This returns focus to the model’s strong FCF generation, attractive capital allocation and market consolidation opportunities. We have tweaked our forecasts, and reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK112 (97).

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Quality discount an opportunity

Bravida’s Q1 was mixed, with EBIT down 21% YOY, but still-solid order intake and FCF generation. While the Region Skåne governance failure seems to have been handled properly, we believe Bravida needs to rebuild its quality brand name. We still see a normalisation of the current valuation discount, and reiterate our BUY and SEK97 target price.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Q4 back on better form

Bravida’s Q4 was mixed, with still-solid order intake and much-improved FCF generation clouded by project write-downs in Denmark, but net-net positive. We still see Bravida having the financial resources to increase its share of the weaker construction market, and have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 6–8% following the Q4 report. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK97 (83).

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK83.00) - Working capital headwinds

Q3 was mixed, with still-solid sales growth and order intake being clouded by project reservations and weak cash conversion, with new payment patterns raising questions. We still see Bravida having the financial resources to grow its share in a weaker construction market, despite the Q3 report leading to 5–11% cuts to our 2023–2025e EPS. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK83 (130), now using the NTM exit multiples from peer Caverion as our basis.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Strong consolidator at a discount

Q2 surprised with record order intake but slightly weaker profit than expected, implying that Bravida has increased its share of the weaker construction market. We expect the asset-light business to continue to generate strong FCF, providing funds to drive further market consolidation (10 acquisitions YTD). We have tweaked our forecasts, and with the valuation close to an all-time low, we reiterate our BUY. That said, we have trimmed our target price to SEK130 (135).

Northern Lights

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Uncertain market an opportunity

Bravida reported strong profitable growth in Q1 (EBIT up 25% YOY), with Service and Installation and all countries contributing. We see the asset-light model still generating strong FCF and, combined with a de-geared balance sheet, providing funds to drive further market consolidation. We like the business model and market opportunity, and find the stock attractive. We reiterate our BUY and SEK135 target price.

Northern Lights

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Continued strong execution

Q4 was solid with a good read-across for the coming quarters, which has led to a 4–3% increase in our 2023–2024e EPS. We see the asset-light business model still generating strong FCF and, combined with a de-geared balance sheet, providing funds to drive further market consolidation. We like the business model and market opportunity, and find the stock attractive. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK135 (125).

Northern Lights

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK125.00) - Still-solid quarter and outlook

Q3 saw another solid combination of growth in orders, sales and profit, highlighting the operational model’s strength, with the demand and production outlook seen as still good into 2023. We expect the asset-light business model to continue generating strong FCF and, with a de-geared balance sheet, provide funds to drive market consolidation. We have tweaked our forecasts 2022–2024e and reiterate BUY and SEK125 target price.

Nothern Ligths

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK125.00) - High acquisition pace

Q2 was a solid combination of growth in orders, sales, and profit, highlighting the strength of Bravida’s operational model, with its acquisition pace YTD already beating that of 2021. We expect the asset-light business model to continue generating strong FCF and, combined with a de-geared balance sheet, provide funds to drive market consolidation. We have tweaked our forecasts and we reiterate our BUY, but we have cut our target price to SEK125 (140) on lower multiples.

Northern Lights

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Solid business model

Bravida’s Q1 was a solid combination of growth in orders, sales, and cash generation, highlighting the strength of its operational and financial model. We expect the asset-light business model to continue generating strong FCF and, combined with a balance sheet now in net cash, providing funds to drive further market consolidation. We appreciate the business model and market opportunity, and find the stock attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY and SEK140 target price.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - CEO “proud but not satisfied”

Q4 was solid with a good read-across to coming quarters, which has led to a 4–5% increase in our EPS forecasts. We see the asset-light business model continuing to generate strong FCF and, combined with a de-geared balance sheet, providing funds to drive further market consolidation. We like the business model and market opportunity, and find the stock attractively valued. Thus, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK140 (135).

Bravida (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Building a record-high order backlog

Bravida’s Q3 report was in line with expectations, with growing service sales and an expanding order backlog supporting forecasts but meaning limited forecast changes. The company’s asset-light business model should continue to generate strong FCF, combined with a de-geared balance sheet, providing funds to drive market consolidation. We like Bravida’s business model and market opportunity, but find the stock fairly valued; thus, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK135 target price.