The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...
Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...
>Paper volumes and lower costs expand margins - Good results, in line with our implied estimates (EBITDA 2024e € 34.4m, EBITDA margin 2024e of 13.5%) with Paper sales up by +4.6% y-o-y sustained by higher volumes (+27%) which offset lower Pulp prices (-18%) and weak Energy revenues (-27%, mainly on poor electricity prices). The group has maintained a low level of production at its natural gas cogeneration plant (35% downtime), similar to the levels achieved in 9M 2023...
The Platform Group (TPG) is a software company that is active across 20 industries through its digital platform solutions. Via its four segments (consumer goods, freight goods, industrial goods, service and retail goods), it serves both B2B and B2C customers. Given the growing revenues (2023-2026e CAGR +14.7%) and adjusted EBITDA margins (+270bp to 7.8% in 2026e vs 2023), as well as a solid financial profile (equity ratio >30%, average positive FCF of c.€ 8m for 2024e to 2026e) and un...
The Platform Group (TPG) is a software company that is active across 20 industries through its digital platform solutions. Via its four segments (consumer goods, freight goods, industrial goods, service and retail goods), it serves both B2B and B2C customers. Given the growing revenues (2023-2026e CAGR +14.7%) and adjusted EBITDA margins (+270bp to 7.8% in 2026e vs 2023), as well as a solid financial profile (equity ratio >30%, average positive FCF of c.€ 8m for 2024e to 2026e) and un...
>Volumes offset decline in average paper prices - Iberpapel’s Q2 2024 results came somewhat above estimates (EBITDA margin of 16% vs 15% estimated) with higher production volumes (H1 2024 volumes increased by +26%) largely offsetting the decline in prices (H1 2024 average prices decreased by 22%) as demand of European UWF paper recovered favoured by the lower level of stocks (restocking throughout H1 24) and the rise in pulp prices. The drop in average prices from th...
Deutz is a leading non-captive engine manufacturer for a wide range of customer industries with a strong and very well-known brand. The company will enter a profitable growth period soon (CAGR 2023-26e sales 8%, EPS 18%). We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 7.9, reflecting >40% upside from here. - ...
Deutz is a leading non-captive engine manufacturer for a wide range of customer industries with a strong and very well-known brand. The company will enter a profitable growth period soon (CAGR 2023-26e sales 8%, EPS 18%). We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 7.9, reflecting >40% upside from here. - ...
>Normalising results on lower energy contribution - Uninspiring Q1 2024 results following the extraordinary contribution from the energy activities in Q4 2023 with the low prices of energy forcing the group to moderate the production at the gas cogeneration plant in the period. Results reflect the normalisation in demand patterns in paper (reactivation of demand and production in Europe after the sharp destocking process experienced in 2023) and a recovery in paper pr...
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
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