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Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Anticipated deterioration on normalising energy contributi...

>Normalising results on lower energy contribution - Uninspiring Q1 2024 results following the extraordinary contribution from the energy activities in Q4 2023 with the low prices of energy forcing the group to moderate the production at the gas cogeneration plant in the period. Results reflect the normalisation in demand patterns in paper (reactivation of demand and production in Europe after the sharp destocking process experienced in 2023) and a recovery in paper pr...

Andreas Riemann
  • Andreas Riemann

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 03/11/2024 Date Performance sin...

Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...

Andreas Riemann
  • Andreas Riemann

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/03/2024 Date Performance dep...

Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Resilient business model at historical discount

>Outperform rating maintained on attractive valuation - We are fine-tuning our estimates following the release of 2023 accounts and some recent corporate announcements (dividend, investments). We reiterate our Outperform rating based on its attractive valuation (3.2x EV/ EBITDA 2024e) and integrated (250kt paper, 240kt pulp, 60MW power) and flexible business model which continues to allow the group to adapt to a volatile market environment (paper and pulp demand and ...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Results beat expectations on collapsing energy costs

>Extraordinary margin on energy cost collapse - Iberpapel’s results were significantly better than expected with an EBITDA margin in Q4 2023 of 25% compared to our 10% estimate and 13.6% for 9M 2023. Lower operating costs explain the significant improvement in profitability driven by much cheaper natural gas costs. Total supply costs for natural gas and electricity in 2023 declined by 63% largely reflecting the price variation and lower cogeneration volumes as the com...

Fatma Manaa ... (+2)
  • Fatma Manaa
  • Nicolas David

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/30/2023

Since begin July 2023 Triodos Bank (TB) has been quoted at the multilateral trading facility (MTF) Captin, where each week on a Wednesday a price is being determined. For the next few years, we estimate an EPS of about € 5.5, a circa 6.0% ROE and an IFRS book value per share of about € 91 end 2023. TB is quoting at a PE of about 4.5x and a P/B of about 0.25x. For the fair value PE of TB, we take a material discount on the bank peer group PE which is now at 5-8x. We identified five dis...

Fatma Manaa ... (+2)
  • Fatma Manaa
  • Nicolas David

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/10/2023

Since begin July 2023 Triodos Bank (TB) has been quoted at the multilateral trading facility (MTF) Captin, where each week on a Wednesday a price is being determined. For the next few years, we estimate an EPS of about € 5.5, a circa 6.0% ROE and an IFRS book value per share of about € 91 end 2023. TB is quoting at a PE of about 4.5x and a P/B of about 0.25x. For the fair value PE of TB, we take a material discount on the bank peer group PE which is now at 5-8x. We identified five dis...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Operating results slightly above estimates, higher cash in...

>Operating results slightly above estimates - Iberpapel’s 9M 2023 results came in slightly above our estimates with EBITDA of € 26.3m (+3.3% vs our estimates, +60% y-o-y) despite the sharp contraction in revenues (-19%) on lower production and selling volumes in paper and a sharp decline in electricity sales (CCGT plant not operating at full capacity given high natural gas prices and declining electricity prices). The European paper industry has operated at capacity u...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

ODDO : Switching preferences towards pulp over paper

We are updating our view on the Pulp and Paper sector in Iberia and switch our preference to pulp over paper producers on price cycle fundamentals. We have consequently upgraded our recommendation on Altri from Underperform to Neutral (TP € 5.1, -12% vs a previous € 5.8) while we maintain our Outperform recommendation on Ence (TP € 3.9). We have also downgraded our recommendation on Navigator (from Outperform to Underpeform, TP € 3.9: -17% vs a previous € 4.7) while we stick to ...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Increasing margins in Q2 2023 on successful production dis...

>Higher margins on resilient paper prices and lower natural gas consumption - Iberpapel’s results significantly topped our estimates (>20%) at the EBITDA level in Q2 2023 (€ 11.3m), benefitting from resilient average prices and a sharp reduction in operating expenses following the relaxation in energy costs (partially offset by lower electricity revenues). The deceleration in paper demand in Europe and the increase in imports from Asia has forced an adjustment in cap...

Luis de Toledo Heras
  • Luis de Toledo Heras

Iberpapel : Q1 2023 results in line with estimates, value creation pot...

>Results in line with estimates in a deteriorating environment for paper and continued challenging conditions for cogeneration - Iberpapel results were in line with our implied estimates (annual EBITDA of € 33m) with weaker revenues on lower volumes in Paper and Electricity. Paper sales (88% of total) grew by +18% despite lower volumes due to the resilience of selling prices in a context of weakening demand and rising Asian imports. Electricity sales declined by -72%...

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