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Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : Results in line with our estimates and showing a good cash ...

>Working capital improvement offsets the previous deterioration - Hochtief’s Q4 2023 results were in line with the consensus and with our estimates (EBITDA 3% below Bloomberg consensus and 1.5% below our estimates), showing contained deviations throughout the P&L: revenues € 7,394 m (0.9% below css; € 293m or 3.8% below our € 7,687m estimate), EBITDA € 322m (3% below css; € 5m or 1.5% below our € 327m estimate), EBIT € 228m (0.3% above css; € 15m or 7% above our € 21...

Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : Fine-tuning valuation to € 69 per share from € 67

>TP increased after updating our Abertis valuation… - We are revisiting our valuation of Abertis to include the latest traffic data as well as the latest FX evolution. Despite this increase, we continue to see our valuation of Abertis, or any valuation, for that matter, as maintaining a high risk, mainly for two reasons: 1/ financial leverage remains extremely high, with € 25bn net debt expected for FY 2023; and 2/ we continue to give credit to the AP-7 compensat...

Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : P&L results in line with estimates but the challenge in cas...

>Working capital deterioration increases pressure on positive Q4 seasonality - Hochtief’s Q3 2023 results were in line with our estimates, with no significant P&L deviations: revenues € 7,346m (€ 107m or 1% above our € 7,239m estimate), EBITDA € 309m (€ 6m or 2% below our € 316m estimate), EBIT € 227m (€ 5m or 2% above our € 222m estimate) and net profit € 119m (€ 4m or 3% below our € 123m estimate) as the lower D&A was more than offset by higher taxes. Net debt, ho...

Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : In-line results on P&L, with a positive quarter on cash flo...

>A partial working capital recovery that narrows down the challenge for H2 - Hochtief’s Q2 2023 results were in line with our estimates, with no significant P&L deviations: revenues € 6,827m (€ 6m or 0% below our € 6,833m estimate), EBITDA € 303m (€ 2m or 1% below our € 305m estimate), EBIT € 235m (€ 12m or 6% above our € 223m estimate) and net profit € 134m (€ 3m or 2% above our € 132m estimate due to lower D&A and financial expenses being almost fully offset by high...

Aurelien Sivignon ... (+2)
  • Aurelien Sivignon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - Date1

Nous pensons que nous sommes à veille d’un rebond des Small Caps relativement aux Large Caps. Leur valorisation relative au Large Caps n’a jamais été aussi attractive, et leurs perspectives de croissance des BPA sont bien plus enthousiasmantes (47% en 2024e vs 2022) que celles des Large Caps (+6%). De plus, les Small Caps pricent un niveau de stress du marché excessif. Leurs ratios de crédit restent moins solides que ceux des Large Caps mais se sont nettement améliorés. Cette stratégi...

Aurelien Sivignon ... (+2)
  • Aurelien Sivignon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/10/2023

We think that we are on the verge of a rebound in small caps relative to large caps. Their valuation relative to large caps has never been so attractive, and their EPS growth prospects are far more exciting (47% in 2024e vs 2022) than those of the large caps (+6%). In addition, small caps have an excessively high level of market stress incorporated in their valuations. Their credit ratios are still less solid than those of the large caps but have improved significantly. This small cap...

Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : Cash conversion again in the spotlight; another demanding t...

>P&L in line with our estimates, with higher cash consumption to be recovered later in the year - Hochtief’s Q1 2023 results were in line with our estimates, with no significant P&L deviations: revenues € 6,189m (€ 250m or 4% above our € 5,939m estimate), EBITDA € 296m (€ 1m or 0% above our € 295m estimate), EBIT € 220m (completely in line with our € 220m estimate) and net profit € 128m (€ 21m or 20% above our estimate of € 106m due to higher financial income). Net de...

Alfredo del Cerro
  • Alfredo del Cerro

ACS: SOLID 1Q’23 RESULTS FROM HOCHTIEF, ALTHOUGH WORSE IN CASH GENERAT...

Hochtief (70% ACS; ~67% of ACS’s EBITDA; 40% of our T.P.) has just released its 1Q’23 results, which were very much in line in sales (although +3.4% vs. consensus; +16% vs. 1Q’22) and in EBITDA (+10% vs. 1Q’22 to 4.8% margin; -20bps vs. 1Q’22), and better in Operating Net Profit (+7% vs. BS(e) and consensus). The latter totaled € 138 M, meaning +16% growth vs. 1Q’22 (vs. between -2% and +5% guidance for the full year). Thanks to the +20% EBITDA in Abertis, its contribution improved greatly to € ...

Alfredo del Cerro
  • Alfredo del Cerro

ACS: RDOS. 1T’23 DE HOCHTIEF BUENOS, AUNQUE PEORES EN GENERACIÓN DE CA...

Hochtief (70% ACS; ~67% EBITDA de ACS; 40% P.O. de ACS) acaba de publicar unos Rdos. 1T’23 que han estado muy alineados en ventas (aunque +3,4% vs consenso; +16% vs 1T’22) y en EBITDA (+10% vs 1T’22 hasta 4,8% de margen; -20 pbs vs 1T’22) y mejores en BDI operativo ((+7% vs BS(e) y consenso). Este último alcanza los 138 M euros, que supone un crecimiento del +16% vs 1T’22 (vs entre -2% y +5% del guidance para todo el año). Gracias al +20% de EBITDA en Abertis, la contribución de esta última mejo...

Ana Arjona-Martinez ... (+2)
  • Ana Arjona-Martinez
  • Antonio Rodriguez Vicens

HOCHTIEF : Higher cash flow generation overshadows an in line P&L

>P&L in line with our estimates but better cash flow generation; guidance for 2023 also in line - Hochtief’s Q4 2022 results were in line with our estimates, with no significant P&L deviations: revenues € 7,096m (€ 72m or 1% above our € 7,024m estimate), EBITDA € 321m (€ 6m or 2% above our € 315m estimate), EBIT € 223m (€ 2m or 1% below our estimate of €225m) and net profit € 126m or 3% below our estimate (€ 130m). Guidance of € 510-550m operational net profit in 2023...

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