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Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Roy Külter ... (+3)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
DHL DHL GROUP
AKE ARKEMA ... (+25)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/06/2024

Our baseline scenario materialised last night: Donald Trump seems to be on course to win the US presidential election, and the choice of the electorate is unlikely to be challenged. He could end up with a majority in both houses of Congress. US equities will be the first to benefit from this development. In European equities, the biggest winners will be Energy, Media, Metals, Construction & Materials, Financial Services and Insurance. More at risk, however, are the Utilities, Spirits,...

Roy Külter ... (+3)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
DHL DHL GROUP
AKE ARKEMA ... (+25)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/11/2024

Notre scénario central s’est concrétisé dans la nuit : Donald Trump remporte la présidentielle américaine, et le choix des électeurs ne devrait pas être contesté. Il pourrait disposer d’une majorité dans les deux assemblées. Les actions américaines en seront les premières bénéficiaires. Sur les actions européennes, les secteurs les plus gagnants seront l’Energie, les Médias, les Métaux, Construction & Materials, Financial Services, Insurance. Sont en revanche plus à risque Utilities, ...

Manuel Martin ... (+3)
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Vonovia SE : Q3 2024 figures are in line with expectations – growth st...

>Q3 2024 figures in line with our estimates – 2024 guidance confirmed - Vonovia (VNA) this morning published Q3 2024 figures which were overall in line with our estimates and confirmed its FY 2024 adjusted EBT guidance at the upper end of € 1.7bn-1.8bn. VNA provided an initial adjusted EBT guidance for FY 2025 of € 1.75bn-1.85bn which was in line with our estimate of € 1.8bn and the Visible Alpha consensus of € 1.8bn.Rental income increased +2.6% y-o-y to € 828.0...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Uniper, Vonovia

Utilities - Uniper: Weaker 9M24 results, as expected

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: A strong 3Q24, driven by Europe. CFE: 3Q24 preview - able to keep net profit outlook? CTP: Good results, guidance reiterated. DEME Group: 3Q24 preview - keeping the FY outlook. Exor: Ferrari hitting Chinese wall. IBA: Contract win for E-beam sterilisation solution in the Dominican Republic. Kendrion: 3Q24 preview - harsh end markets but easy comps. Proximus: 2025 price increases on the high side, more asset sales in the pipeline. Solvay: 3Q24 results beat by 4% bu...

 PRESS RELEASE

EQS-News: Vonovia resumes growth trajectory, doubling investments to €...

EQS-News: Vonovia SE / Key word(s): Quarter Results Vonovia resumes growth trajectory, doubling investments to €2 billion 06.11.2024 / 07:02 CET/CEST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Results as of September 30, 2024 Vonovia resumes growth trajectory, doubling investments to €2 billion Target: approx. 30% EBITDA increase by 2028; growth driven primarily by additional business segments, with 20–25% EBITDA contribution from new construction, value-added residential services, and sales. Plans to double annual investments by 2028 in c...

 PRESS RELEASE

EQS-News: Vonovia setzt wieder auf Wachstum und verdoppelt Investition...

EQS-News: Vonovia SE / Schlagwort(e): Quartalsergebnis Vonovia setzt wieder auf Wachstum und verdoppelt Investitionen auf 2 Milliarden Euro 06.11.2024 / 07:02 CET/CEST Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich. Ergebnis zum 30. September 2024 Vonovia setzt wieder auf Wachstum und verdoppelt Investitionen auf 2 Milliarden Euro Zirka 30 % mehr EBITDA bis 2028 angestrebt; Wachstum vor allem durch ergänzende Geschäftsbereiche; 20 bis 25 % EBITDA-Beitrag aus Neubau, wohnungsnahen Dienstleistungen und Verkäufen. Bis 2028 Verdopplung der In...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+4)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Youssef Besbes
FP TOTAL SE
BN DANONE SA ... (+5)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 03/10/2024

We hosted our 4th ODDO BHF Iberian Forum on the 1st and 2nd of October 2024, virtually. In total, 63 companies were present. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback from the companies on day 2. - ...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+4)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Emira Sagaama
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Youssef Besbes
FP TOTAL SE
BN DANONE SA ... (+5)

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/03/2024

Si aucun des deux candidats ne semble préoccupé par le creusement du déficit budgétaire, le projet de Donald Trump est, sur le papier, plus inflationniste que celui de Kamala Harris. Nous conservons notre allocation stratégique favorable aux actions américaines pour bénéficier de la baisse de l’incertitude politique post élections. Au sein du Stoxx 600, l’élection de Donald Trump favoriserait les secteurs Médias, Oil & Oil Services, Metals et mettrait à risque les Spiritueux, Energéti...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: The Saga continues. ASM International: KKR reportedly interested in ASM PT. D'Ieteren: Belron €8.1bn debt financing at better rates than expected. Elia: Challenges ahead, CEO appointment necessary. Gimv: €150-250m bond issue by Gimv controlling anchor investor WorxInvest. PostNL: Preparation letter on future of Dutch mail market sent to Parliament. Vonovia: Good progress on disposals

Manuel Martin ... (+3)
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Vonovia SE : Vonovia continues to deliver on its disposal programme an...

>Signed disposals of development properties and a share of the nursing homes - Yesterday evening (2 October) after market, Vonovia (VNA) announced that it had signed two transactions for an aggregate volume of c.€ 0.8bn bringing VNA´s YTD disposal volumes to more than € 2.3bn and reiterated the achievement of its € 3.0bn disposal target for FY 2024e. Furthermore, VNA announced a next step in preparing a domination agreement on Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI).One transacti...

 PRESS RELEASE

EQS-News: Three Transactions for Combined Liquidity Generation of € 1....

EQS-News: Vonovia SE / Key word(s): Disposal Three Transactions for Combined Liquidity Generation of € 1.8 billion 02.10.2024 / 17:45 CET/CEST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Three Transactions for Combined Liquidity Generation of € 1.8 billion Following sales revenue of € 1.5 billion in the first half of the year, Vonovia has secured a further € 1.8 billion in liquidity. Total liquidity inflow of € 4 billion expected by the end of the year. Bochum, October 2, 2024 – Vonovia remains well on track and has gained a further € 1.8 bill...

 PRESS RELEASE

EQS-News: Vonovia realisiert drei Transaktionen mit einem Liquiditätsz...

EQS-News: Vonovia SE / Schlagwort(e): Verkauf Vonovia realisiert drei Transaktionen mit einem Liquiditätszufluss von 1,8 Mrd. € 02.10.2024 / 17:45 CET/CEST Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich. Vonovia realisiert drei Transaktionen mit einem Liquiditätszufluss von 1,8 Mrd. €   Nach Verkaufserlösen von 1,5 Mrd. € zum Halbjahr hat sich Vonovia weitere 1,8 Mrd. € an Liquidität gesichert. Insgesamt 4 Mrd. € Liquiditätszufluss bis Jahresende erwartet. Bochum, 2. Oktober 2024 – Vonovia hält Kurs und hat weitere 1,8 Mrd. € an Liquidität ...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

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