reports
- Stephen Ellis
Intesa is the second-largest Italian lender and is focused on increasi...
Intesa Sanpaolo reported good underlying first-quarter results as the group improves its nonperforming loans portfolio but continues to suffer from legacy resolution and restructuring charges. Net inflow of assets under management of EUR 5 billion and a stock increase of EUR 6 billion were a positive this quarter, lifting net fee and commission income 10% to EUR 1.9 billion year over year. In combination with stable operating costs, Intesa increased its operating margin slightly by 1.5%. The eff...
- Stephen Ellis
Intesa Sanpaolo Reports Promising 1Q Results; Legacy Issues Remain a N...
Intesa Sanpaolo reported good underlying first-quarter results as the group improves its nonperforming loans portfolio but continues to suffer from legacy resolution and restructuring charges. Net inflow of assets under management of EUR 5 billion and a stock increase of EUR 6 billion were a positive this quarter, lifting net fee and commission income 10% to EUR 1.9 billion year over year. In combination with stable operating costs, Intesa increased its operating margin slightly by 1.5%. The eff...
- Stephen Ellis
We Believe Current Bid Speculation Surrounding Generali Is Unlikely
There has been a lot of speculation in the media over the past few days surrounding a potential bid for Generali Assicurazioni; during this time, Generali shares have rallied 13%. In defence against a potential bid from Intesa Sanpaolo in a possible combination with Allianz, Generali has bought 3.01% of Intesa shares in a move that protects it from a bid approach under cross-holding rules. At present, we believe a successful takeover approach is unlikely, and we therefore maintain our fair value...
- Stephen Ellis
Monte dei Paschi Private Solution Fails; Italy to Nationalize Weakest ...
The private plan to rescue Monte dei Paschi di Siena has failed, and the Italian government has moved to nationalize the bank while also arranging reimbursement for Italian savers who would otherwise suffer losses. We plan to maintain our fair value estimates and moat ratings for the Italian banks we cover. MPS was only able to raise about EUR 2.5 billion in private capital, short of the EUR 5 billion needed, after Qatar backed away from being an anchor investor. The still-in-process sale of EUR...
- Stephen Ellis
Italian Banks Need to Be Aggressive in Wake of 'No' Vote and Renzi Res...
Italy voted no by a 20-point margin in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional changes. Given the magnitude of the loss, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would resign. We see this as neither a Brexit nor a Trump moment for European investors, as Italian politicians have been aware of this possible outcome since the summer, and they have been clear on the next steps needed. Given the reduced uncertainty and expectation that the Italian status quo will be maintained (Italy has had 63 government...
- Stephen Ellis
Momentous Days Are Ahead for Italy as No Vote Looms Large
Italians are poised to vote on Dec, 4 on reforms to the country’s constitution, with the idea of simplifying the parliamentary system to reduce bureaucratic delays while also centralizing power with the government versus regional powers. Broadly though, no matter the outcome of the vote, our central thesis for the Italian banking system remains unchanged: the current system is broken, but events are encouraging the banking system to reform, benefiting all participants over the long run. We see...
- Stephen Ellis
Intesa Sanpaolo Continues to Make Very Slow Progress; Outlook Remains ...
Intesa Sanpaolo reported acceptable third-quarter results, and we plan to maintain our EUR 1.75/$12 fair value estimate and no-moat rating. The bank’s progress with resolving its nonperforming loans remains very slow, and we believe it would be wise to raise capital to accelerate the disposal of its bad-loan book. We anticipate that the bank will consider more changes after the upcoming Italian referendum in early December, when we also expect to gain clarity into how the insolvent Monte Dei P...
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