reports
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBK PW; BHW PW; DOM PW; TPE PW; BDX PW; BFT PW; INPST NA; ...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – mBank: bid or no bid?
UniCredit has issued a statement, announcing the launch of a voluntary exchange offer for Commerzbank shares, aimed at exceeding a 30% stake in the German bank. UniCredit added, in the statement, that its intention is not to achieve a controlling stake. This bid may have material implications for Commerzbank’s subsidiary, mBank. Looking at mBank’s share price performance today, we see that the market is trying to price in a potential mandatory bid for up to a 100% stake in mBank, as the stock is...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy – EEMEA; BDX PW; WPL PW; EWG LN; KZ Mac...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA • Budimex: PKP PLK cancels selection of the company’s offer in PLN 1.1bn rail tender NEGATIVE • Budimex: offer selected in PLN 300m PSE tender for expansion of Gdańsk Błonia substation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: write-down of Szallas Group assets reduces WPL's operating result by PLN 150m NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: accounting policy change increases dividend capacity by c.PLN 518m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25E preview upda...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BIMAS TI; ENA PW; TPE PW; PGE PW; GPW PW; FTSHP CP; MOL HB...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Enea: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 25% below expectations on Supply one-offs; adjusted EBITDA 2% below forecast NEUTRAL • Enea / Tauron: URE orders additional payments to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • PGE: completes acquisition of 350 MW Bałtyk II offshore wind project from RWE NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 10.7m impairment losses to spoil otherwise strong quarter (due on 23 March) NEGATIVE • Footshop: preliminary 4Q25 resul...
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
CTPNV CTP NV
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
SPLUS SHOPPER PARK PLUS ZRT
FTSHP FOOTSHOP A.S.
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; BDX PW; APR PW; DIA PW; CEZ CP; BELA GA; MA...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: oil price spike negative NEGATIVE • Budimex: PLN 2.59bn rail contract signed with PKP PLK NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: February sales growth of 3.4% yoy NEGATIVE • Diagnostyka: 4Q25E preview – 8% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 20 April) NEUTRAL • CEZ: 4Q25E earnings preview (due on 12 March) • Jumbo: February sales growth slows to 3% yoy on tough comps, as expected NEUTRAL • Mavi: 4Q25E earnings preview (due on 17 March) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (27 Febru...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MDV PW; BDX PW; CBF PW; SHO PW; VRC PW; PGE PW; RBW PW; OT...
HEADLINES: • Modivo Group: the role of a serial disruptor is never easy (stays BUY) • Budimex: built on solid ground, priced for perfection (HOLD - transfer of coverage) • Budimex: 4Q25 conference highlights NEUTRAL • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call POSITIVE • Vercom: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call POSITIVE • PGE: PLN 12.1bn loan impairment recognised in stand-alone accounts NEGATIVE • Rainbow Tours: summer 2026E season pre-sales accelerate to +10.9% yo...
- Jakub Bronicki
- Jakub Caithaml
Budimex: built on solid ground, priced for perfection (HOLD - transfer...
We transfer coverage of Budimex (BDX) and downgrade our rating to HOLD (from Buy), with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 853 (vs. PLN 750 previously), implying 9% upside. After two years of relatively flat results in 2024-25, we expect 2026-27E to mark a return to double-digit yoy growth in both revenues and the order backlog. We forecast a solid EBIT CAGR of 11% for 2025-28E, supported by accelerating public infrastructure spending and improving contract flow. At the same time, we believe the cur...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCOLA TI; PGE PW; TPE PW; CDR PW; AQ RO; GEKTERNA GA; TL A...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q25 results – operational recovery masked by higher tax expenses NEUTRAL • PGE: recognises deferred tax asset of c.PLN 2bn in the Conventional Generation Segment POSITIVE • Tauron: PLN 392m positive impact from impairment reversal in stand-alone accounts; no impact on consolidated results NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Cyberpunk 2077 available on Xbox Game Pass on 10 March POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 4Q25 earnings beat, on slowing opex POSITIVE • GEK Terna: surpr...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE back in the lead
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
RBW RAINBOW TOURS S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
DVL DEVELIA SA
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
CTPNV CTP NV
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
BOROUGE BOROUGE
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
PE RO PREMIER ENERGY
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TL Food Retailers; BDX PW; ALE PW; HU Macro; RICHT HB; NRP...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: resilient in transition (BIM and Migros stay BUY, Sok Marketler stays HOLD) • Budimex: 4Q25 preliminary results in line with the January guidance NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25E results preview – adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by 13% yoy (due on 12 March) NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB delivers long-awaited rate cut • Richter: 4Q25E preview (due on 27 February) NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H25 results at the top of the guided range NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: 4Q25E...
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: NLBR SV; PL Banks; DAT PW; ALE PW; INPST NA; CDR PW; ACP P...
HEADLINES: • NLB Group: 4Q25 net profit materially ahead of expectations • Polish banks: CJEU rules on WIBOR case, in line with the General Attorney's opinion, issued on 11 September 2025 NEUTRAL • DataWalk: issues shares worth PLN 116.3m POSITIVE • Allegro: changes in MOV are negative for lockers NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 2026-29 incentive programme net profit condition set at PLN 5.0bn NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q25E preview – 11% yoy organic net profit growth expected (due on 31 March) • OPAP: Al...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OPAP GA; WPL PW; BDX PW; PKN PW; INPST NA; ENA PW; TPE PW;...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: only 6.7% of shares elect for cash exit; free float to remain above all-important 20% level POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: TUI renews cooperation with Wakacje.pl POSITIVE • Budimex: signs PLN 481m contract with GAZ-SYSTEM NEUTRAL • Orlen: 4Q25E results preview (due on 19 February) NEUTRAL • InPost: 4Q25E preview – flattish adjusted EBITDA expected (due on 18 March) NEUTRAL • Enea: 4Q25E preview – 11% EBITDA drop on weaker Generation and Mining (prelims due on 23 March; full due ...
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
NLBR NLB GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; ING PW; MBK PW; CAR PW; VGO PW; GEKTERNA GA; DIGI ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: grow baby, grow! (BUY - transfer of coverage) • ING BSK: 4Q25 results beat; solid DPS guidance; recent share price rally might have consumed part of the upside • mBank: solid 4Q25; rather cautious on the 2026E revenue outlook NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales increase by 4.0% yoy NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 4Q25E results preview – solid yoy adjusted EBITDA improvement expected (due on 16 March) • GEK Terna: seals c.EUR 1bn of Romanian railway projects – positive, b...
- Jovan Sikimic
- Lukasz Wachelko
- CFA
- Marek Szymański
Benefit Systems: grow baby, grow! (BUY - transfer of coverage)
We transfer coverage of Benefit Systems (BFT), maintaining our BUY on the stock. We set our 12-month price target (PT) at PLN 5,000 (from PLN 4,300), 32% potential upside. After solid results in 2025E, we expect BFT to maintain its earnings momentum and deliver an adjusted EBIT CAGR of 18% in 2025-27E. We turn more optimistic on the operations in Türkiye, as we expect the addition of sports cards to accelerate from 2026E-onwards, and the Fitness segment to remain highly profitable. As a result, ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ORSTED ORSTED
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
VK VALLOUREC SA
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
INPST INPOST S.A.
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
TEN TENARIS S.A.
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