reports
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
Solid Start to 2018, but Heineken's Opportunities Look Priced In
Heineken reported a solid start to 2018, with first-quarter volume growth that slightly beat our estimates thanks to a strong performance in the Americas segment. We are raising our fair value estimate slightly to EUR 85 from EUR 83 due to the impact of the time value of money. We have slightly raised our near-term volume assumptions for the Americas and Asia segments, but the impact of this is offset by slightly lower volume forecasts in Europe and the continued strength in the euro. This volum...
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
Heineken is well positioned to capture above-industry growth.
Heineken reported a strong end to the year, slightly beating our estimates thanks to a strong volume performance. Management guided below our estimate for EBIT margin expansion next year, and we estimate the two factors to be largely offsetting. We do not, therefore, expect to make material changes to our EUR 83 fair value estimate beyond the time value of money, and we regard Heineken as being fairly valued. These results confirm our thesis that this narrow moat company is set to benefit from m...
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
Heineken is well positioned for premiumisation.
Heineken’s first-quarter trading update was broadly in line with our forecasts, although the composition of the firm’s 0.6% organic volume growth was slightly more skewed to Asia than we had expected. With limited granularity in the release, and because the group-level performance in the first quarter keeps Heineken on track to meet our full-year forecasts, we are maintaining our narrow moat rating and our EUR 79 fair value estimate for the Amsterdam-traded ordinary shares. Reported first-qu...
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
No Change to Our Thesis or Estimates Following Heineken’s 1Q Update
Heineken’s first-quarter trading update was broadly in line with our forecasts, although the composition of the firm’s 0.6% organic volume growth was slightly more skewed to Asia than we had expected. With limited granularity in the release, and because the group-level performance in the first quarter keeps Heineken on track to meet our full-year forecasts, we are maintaining our narrow moat rating and our EUR 79 fair value estimate for the Amsterdam-traded ordinary shares. Reported first-qu...
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
Heineken Rebounds in Q3 With a Solid Volume Performance; Shares Fairly...
Heineken reported in its third-quarter trading update that performance is recovering from a slightly disappointing first half to the year. Organic revenue growth, driven by improving volumes, slightly beat our expectations, although the negative impact of currency movements appears to be worse than we had anticipated. The two factors offset each other from a valuation perspective, and we are maintaining our EUR 79 and $44 fair value estimates for the Amsterdam-traded ordinary shares and the ADRs...
- Philip Gorham
- CFA
- FRM
Heineken Rebounds in Q3 With a Solid Volume Performance; Shares Fairly...
Heineken reported in its third-quarter trading update that performance is recovering from a slightly disappointing first half to the year. Organic revenue growth, driven by improving volumes, slightly beat our expectations, although the negative impact of currency movements appears to be worse than we had anticipated. The two factors offset each other from a valuation perspective, and we are maintaining our EUR 79 and $44 fair value estimates for the Amsterdam-traded ordinary shares and the ADRs...
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