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Henry Heathfield ... (+2)
  • Henry Heathfield
  • CFA

Diversification is AXA's biggest strength and greatest weakness.

AXA has announced the takeover of XL Group for $15.3 billion, or EUR 12.4 billion. The deal represents a 33% premium to XL Group’s closing share price on March 2 and is subject to regulator and shareholder approval. It is expected to close at the end of the third quarter and is a major shift in AXA's strategic direction. We are very surprised to see this announcement and are pretty unnerved by the acquisition. In terms of corporate activity, we felt management would focus on strengthening its...

Henry Heathfield ... (+2)
  • Henry Heathfield
  • CFA

AXA's diversification is its biggest strength and greatest weakness.

AXA reported pretty flat first-quarter results. Solvency II remains at the top end of the business' range at 196%. The surprise came in the announcement of the intention to partially IPO its U.S. operations along with its AllianceBernstein stake in the first half of 2018. While we understand the business' desire to focus its insurance operations outside the U.S. and establish more North America visibility, we think the decision to IPO AllianceBernstein deprives the group of a long-term opportuni...

Stephen Ellis
  • Stephen Ellis

AXA Reports Flat 1Q Results and Announces Intention to Partially IPO I...

AXA reported pretty flat first-quarter results. Solvency II remains at the top end of the business' range at 196%. The surprise came in the announcement of the intention to partially IPO its U.S. operations along with its AllianceBernstein stake in the first half of 2018. While we understand the business' desire to focus its insurance operations outside the U.S. and establish more North America visibility, we think the decision to IPO AllianceBernstein deprives the group of a long-term opportuni...

Stephen Ellis
  • Stephen Ellis

We Believe Current Bid Speculation Surrounding Generali Is Unlikely

There has been a lot of speculation in the media over the past few days surrounding a potential bid for Generali Assicurazioni; during this time, Generali shares have rallied 13%. In defence against a potential bid from Intesa Sanpaolo in a possible combination with Allianz, Generali has bought 3.01% of Intesa shares in a move that protects it from a bid approach under cross-holding rules. At present, we believe a successful takeover approach is unlikely, and we therefore maintain our fair value...

Stephen Ellis
  • Stephen Ellis

AXA Reports Unsurprising Nine-Month 2016 Results

On Nov. 4, AXA reported third-quarter and nine-month earnings with no surprises. We plan to maintain our EUR 24 fair value estimate and no-moat rating. The life and savings business reported flat new business value and margin at EUR 1,824 million and 38%, respectively. Premium also showed no change from prior year. The composition of premium and new business value continues to be driven geographically by the business' push into emerging markets, with mature markets draining the top line by 4%. W...

Stephen Ellis
  • Stephen Ellis

AXA Reports Steady First Half

AXA reported steady net income of EUR 3.2 billion and a decline in return on equity to 14.6%. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 24 per share and no-moat rating because we do not see a material change in the business strategy. In life and savings, the new business value margin was stable at 37% and average premium earned declined 2% as higher Chinese New Year sales of single premium and whole life savings products were offset by lower sales in Switzerland and France. Overall, AXA...

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