reports
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024
Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
GSK GSK PLC
FER FERROVIAL SA
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/30/2024
The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
BAS BASF SE
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
GSK GSK PLC
FER FERROVIAL SA
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : 9M 2024 results in line with estimates, regulatory milestones...
>Results broadly in line with estimates. Growth excluding regulatory effects - Results were in line with our estimates (-0.6% at EBITDA, -2% vs consensus) marked by the end of the regulatory useful life of the pre-1998 assets with an estimated impact of € 260m in 2024 (€ 187m impact in 9M 2024). Excluding this effect, revenues grew by +1.9%. Domestic electricity transmission accounted for 76% of revenues and 71% of EBITDA in 9M 2024 with sales and EBITDA declining by,...
- Nicolas David
ODDO : Iberian Forum – Day 2
We hosted our 4th ODDO BHF Iberian Forum on the 1st and 2nd of October 2024, virtually. In total, 63 companies were present. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback from the companies on day 2. - >ACS (=): good operating momentum maintained, Abertis and its dividends on the front page - Atresmedia (=): Q3 should be challenging but outlook reiterated - Befesa (=): zinc prices held up well, offsetting the negative impact of maintenance on Q3 volumes - CaixaBank ...
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
NVG NAVIGATOR COMPANY SA
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
A3TV ATRESMEDIA CORPORACION DE MEDIOS DE COMUNICACION SA
MAP MAPFRE SA
ENC ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
FER FERROVIAL SA
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Konrad Zomer
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
BN DANONE SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
LI KLEPIERRE SA
ORA ORANGE SA
RXL REXEL SA
SCR SCOR SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
OR L'OREAL SA
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
FRE FRESENIUS SE & CO. KGAA
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
SOLB SOLVAY SA
BOL BOLLORE SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
LDO LEONARDO SPA
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
GSK GSK PLC
FER FERROVIAL SA
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : H1 24 results in line with estimates, investment acceleration...
>H1 results aligned with FY 24 guidance - Decent set of results, slightly above our estimates (+2% in Q2 24 EBITDA), which reflect the end of the regulatory life of pre-1998 assets (with an estimated annual impact in revenues of € 260m: H1 24 Sales decline by -11.5%) and well positioned to meet the group’s annual guidance (EBITDA H1 24 of € 681m, -13.7% y-o-y, vs FY 24 guidance of > € 1.3bn and net profit H1 24e of € 269m, -24% y-o-y, vs FY 24 guidance). As we expecte...
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
LUFTHANSA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
DAI DAIMLER AG
RXL REXEL SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RAA RATIONAL AG
AENA AENA SME SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024
We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...
LUFTHANSA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
DAI DAIMLER AG
RXL REXEL SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RAA RATIONAL AG
AENA AENA SME SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : Well aligned to meet annual targets, regulatory newsflow expe...
>Results in line with estimates, adequate progress towards FY guidance - Results in line with our estimates marked by the loss of pre-1998 regulated assets (end of the useful remunerative life of the pre-98 assets with a FY impact estimated at € 260m in 2024) as widely anticipated. Domestic electricity infrastructure accounted for 76% of total revenues and 70% of total EBITDA recording a decline of 16% and 22% compared to last year levels in each category, fully expla...
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
EDEN EDENRED SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BN DANONE SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
SRT3 SARTORIUS AG PREF
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
EZJ EASYJET PLC
REP REPSOL SA
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
SGSN SGS SA
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
EDEN EDENRED SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BN DANONE SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
SRT3 SARTORIUS AG PREF
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
EZJ EASYJET PLC
REP REPSOL SA
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
SGSN SGS SA
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : Regulatory impact kicking in
>Regulatory impact drives results decline - Redeia will release Q1 2024 results on 30 April. Results are marked by the loss of pre-1998 regulated assets (estimated annual impact of € 260m in 2024: € 307m remuneration impact, partially offset by € 47m revenues from the start of extension of useful life of those assets) as widely anticipated by the company and consensus estimates. As a result, domestic electricity infrastructure is expected to reduce its contribution to...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/03/2024
L’année 2024 sera marquée par l’élection présidentielle américaine et l’annonce des rabais pour les 10 médicaments dont les prix sont dorénavant négociés directement par Medicare dans le cadre de l’IRA. Nous tablons sur une croissance des BPA 24e de 8% et relevons nos OC de 1% en moyenne. Nous privilégions GSK (Surperformance) qui allie valorisation attractive, croissance et newsflow. Nous maintenons notre recommandation Surperformance sur Sanofi qui devrait bénéficier d’un catalyseur...
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
EOAN E.ON SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ZAL ZALANDO SE
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Baptiste Salaville
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/13/2024
2024 is set to be marked by the US presidential election and the announcement of rebates for the 10 drugs for which prices are now negotiated directly through Medicare under the IRA. We forecast EPS 24e growth of 8% and lift our target prices by 1% on average. We prefer GSK (Outperform) which combines an attractive valuation, growth and clinical newsflow. We maintain our Outperform rating on Sanofi which should benefit from a transformative clinical catalyst in H1. We lower our rating...
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
EOAN E.ON SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ZAL ZALANDO SE
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : Remaining cautious on the 2024 regulatory impact
>Fine-tuning estimates following the 2024 guidance release - We are updating our estimates on Redeia following the annual accounts publication and the release of the 2024 guidance consisting of EBITDA above € 1.3bn and net profit of around € 500m. These references are 9% and 12% below our previous estimates respectively, which considered an EBITDA margin of 72% at the domestic electricity infrastructure business for 2024 and 71% in 2025, and we are now lowering this ...
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/28/2024
Double materiality, climate transition plan, the value chain: the CSDR is set to revolutionise ESG reporting as of 2025. It should accelerate the sustainable transformation of the most committed companies and act as a weapon against greenwashing for the most reticent. The audit requirements guarantee a level of quality for data, but it will take several years before investors begin to reap all of the benefits. - ...
RNO RENAULT SA
ZURN ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP LTD
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
UCB UCB S.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
FER FERROVIAL SA
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/02/2024
Double matérialité, transition climat, chaîne de valeur : la CSRD va révolutionner le reporting ESG, dès 2025. Elle devrait accélérer la transformation des entreprises les plus engagées et servir d’arme anti-greenwashing à l’encontre des plus réticentes. Les exigences d’audit garantissent une certaine qualité des données, mais il faudra patienter quelques années pour que les investisseurs en tirent tous les bénéfices. - ...
RNO RENAULT SA
ZURN ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP LTD
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
UCB UCB S.A.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AENA AENA SME SA
WLN WORLDLINE SA
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
FER FERROVIAL SA
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Luis de Toledo Heras
Redeia : FY 2023 results to pass unnoticed, focus on potential regulat...
>Results in line with estimates, net profit beat on lower taxes and financing costs - Redeia FY 2023 results were broadly in line with our estimates at the operating level and somewhat above at the net profit level considering lower tax rate (20.9% vs 22.5%e and 21.7% in 2022) and better financial results. Results were supported by the contribution of International Infrastructure activities (consolidation of Argo in Brazil and good performance of TEN in Chile) and res...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/02/2024
3 valeurs sortent aujourd’hui de notre liste de Convictions Large Caps européennes. Nous prenons nos profits sur ASML (+ 30% depuis son entrée dans la liste) après sa forte hausse post publication de son T4 2023. Inversement, nous coupons notre position sur RWE (-15% depuis son entrée) après de bons résultats 2023 mais une guidance 2024 revue en baisse. Nous conservons Sodexo dans son nouveau périmètre mais sortons Pluxee. - ...
FME FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE AG
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
ENG ENAGAS SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
- Marc Lavaud
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/05/2024
We are removing three stocks from the ODDO BHF European Large Caps Convictions List today. We are taking our profits on ASML (+30% since its inclusion in the list) after its strong gains since the publication of its Q4 2023 results. Conversely, we are reducing our position on RWE (-15% since its inclusion in the list) following a good set of 2023 results but a downward revision to 2024 guidance. We maintain Sodexo in its new scope in the list but withdraw Pluxee - ...
FME FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE AG
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
ENG ENAGAS SA
CABK CAIXABANK SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
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