reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
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GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
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1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
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ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
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Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
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Austria ARGENTINA
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IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
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CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
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LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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ASIA REPUBLIC OF
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Portugal REPUBLIC OF
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EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
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1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
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1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
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ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
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CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
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1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
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CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
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TOPL PORTUGAL
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REPUBLIC OF
- Julia Specht
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AAA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Michael Heydt
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 U...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
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GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
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1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
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ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z LATVIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z ESTONIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
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1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1110Z KINGDOM OF
1266Z CYPRUS
IRELAND REPUBLIC OF
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
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344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
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ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
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EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
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REPUBLIC OF
CHILE
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: September 2022 ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
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GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
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1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
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ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
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COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
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1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
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1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
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1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
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344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
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TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
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REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns: June 2022 Updat...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • 2022 growth projections have deteriorated in recent months, dri...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns March 2022 Updat...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary updating our Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • Baseline forecasts have deteriorated in rec...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
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EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
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INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AAA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Michael Heydt
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns December 2021 Up...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. DBRS Morningstar's baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for DBRS Morningstar's ratings. When our baseline scenarios were last published 3 months ago (September 8, 20...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
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CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns
This commentary introduces an updated approach to monitoring macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on DBRS Morningstar ratings. Although the COVID-19 pandemic remains a source of uncertainty, the most affected sectors (e.g., travel, hospitality, etc.) are already plainly evident. For other sectors, the future macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is no longer expected to exceed the parameters of a normal economic downturn. Consequently, with this commentary, we are retiring our mode...
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GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
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1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
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ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
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ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
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3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
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IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
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CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios - June 2021 Update
This commentary provides the latest update to DBRS Morningstar's Global Macroeconomic Scenarios, which were first published on April 16, 2020. These scenarios have been regularly updated to reflect the most recent developments relating to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its economic consequences. A global recovery is underway, led by advanced economies that have made substantial progress in vaccinating the adult population and have reduced mobility restrictions. However, the globa...
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1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
Belgium GOVERNMENT OF
111136Z UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
EMKT UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
NI BELGIUM
TOPEM KINGDOM OF
TOPL AUSTRIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria NORWAY
1233Z KINGDOM OF
NORWAY SPAIN
1841Z KINGDOM OF
1004Z HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1266Z IRELAND
EUROPE REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND SWEDEN
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SWEDEN ITALY
2103Z REPUBLIC OF
Japan JAPAN
1319293D FRANCE
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1533Z THE NETHERLANDS
1174Z KINGDOM OF
Portugal PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
UK: A Trade Deal with Australia, With Limited Economic Implications
The UK government has reached an agreement on the core elements of a free-trade deal with Australia. If signed, it would be the first free-trade agreement (FTA) the UK government has negotiated "from scratch" after Brexit. Moreover, it has been negotiated relatively quickly without major disagreements. DBRS Morningstar views the trade deal with Australia as broadly favourable, although with very limited economic implications for now. Australia is only the 21st largest market for the UK, behind m...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: March 2021 Update
DBRS Morningstar first published a set of macroeconomic scenarios for select economies in April 2020. These scenarios have been regularly updated to reflect the most recent developments relating to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its economic consequences. The commentary below provides an update to our latest assessment of the economic recovery and labor market impact.
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
Belgium GOVERNMENT OF
111136Z UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
EMKT UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
NI BELGIUM
TOPEM KINGDOM OF
TOPL AUSTRIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria NORWAY
1233Z KINGDOM OF
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1004Z HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1266Z IRELAND
EUROPE REPUBLIC OF
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Japan JAPAN
1319293D FRANCE
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1533Z THE NETHERLANDS
1174Z KINGDOM OF
Portugal PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: January 2021 Update
DBRS Morningstar first published a set of macroeconomic scenarios for select economies in April 2020. These scenarios have been regularly updated to reflect the most recent developments relating to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its economic consequences. This commentary provides our latest assessment of the economic recovery and labor market impact.
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
Belgium GOVERNMENT OF
111136Z UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
EMKT UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
NI BELGIUM
TOPEM KINGDOM OF
TOPL AUSTRIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria NORWAY
1233Z KINGDOM OF
NORWAY SPAIN
1841Z KINGDOM OF
1004Z HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1266Z IRELAND
EUROPE REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND SWEDEN
1179Z KINGDOM OF
SWEDEN ITALY
2103Z REPUBLIC OF
Japan JAPAN
1319293D FRANCE
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Portugal REPUBLIC OF
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Australia at AAA, Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AAA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Commonwealth of Australia’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Michael Heydt
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