After publication of first-quarter 2018 results, we maintain our EUR 12 fair value estimate and no-moat rating for Leonardo. The company recorded good revenue (up 380 basis points year on year), mainly due to increased new helicopter deliveries. In the quarter, 29 helicopters, mainly higher-margin AW139s, were delivered to the end customer, compared with 12 in first-quarter 2017. Leonardo’s EBITA margin in the quarter declined 130 basis points as strong profitability gains in helicopters (EBI...
We lower Leonardo’s fair value estimate to EUR 12 from EUR 14 per share as we rebase our expectations for revenue, costs, and capital expenditures for our 2017-21 forecast period. We maintain our no-moat rating. Insights from Leonardo’s 2018 Industrial plan suggest that the A169 helicopter's production issues are more structural than previously assumed and result from internal issues, especially poor bid control. To win contracts in challenging civil and military helicopter markets (30% of L...
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