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Victor Dima
  • Victor Dima

Dangote Sugar (BUY, TP NGN 8.80/share) - Price increases drive Q1 17A ...

Price increases (>100%) drive 83% y/y sales growth in Q1 17A, despite 19% y/y drop in volumes. Margins remain subdued on raw sugar price inflation. Global sugar prices trending lower (down 21% YTD) which may start impacting sales growth in H2 17e, and as a result we expect positive top line momentum to turn negative in H2 17e (to -20% y/y in H2 17e vs. +50% y/y in H1 17e). Low raw sugar price to aid gross margin, provided FX remains stable. We increase our FY 17e/18e EPS by 19%/12% driven by hig...

Victor Dima
  • Victor Dima

Dangote Sugar (BUY, TP NGN 7.80/share) - Q4 16A: Sales double y/y but ...

Q4 16A revenue almost doubled y/y to NGN 54.5bn; 29% above consensus and 40% above ACe. Revenue increase was driven by price increase as volumes remained flat Gross margin expanded 30bps y/y to 7.3% but compressed 400 bps q/q, missing consensus est. by 990bps and ACe by 120bps as FX continues to impact raw material prices. EBIT margin disappointed at 3.8%, the lowest in last four quarters (consensus at 15.6% and ACe: 2.8%) Q4 16A EPS at NGN 0.36/share was 8% above consensus (NGN 0.33/share) and...

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