There is no change to our fundamental view on Noble Group, which will be consolidating its share capital from 10 shares to 1 share, effective May 9, 2017. With the share price already having gone ex-consolidation exercise on May 5, our fair value estimate is adjusted to SGD 1.84 from SGD 0.18. Our uncertainty rating on no-moat-rated Noble remains extreme, given the company's sensitivity to its working-capital needs and risk in correctly ascertaining the value of the company’s hedged commodity ...
No-moat Noble Group has raised new debt of USD 1.75 billion over the past month, which is within our expectation given that there was around USD 1.8 billion in net debt repayment in 2016. Given our revenue and working capital assumptions, we think Noble can manage without raising further significant debt this year but we anticipate a net addition of around USD 1 billion in new debt per year going forward in our explicit forecast period to 2021. While we had already factored in the debt raising, ...
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