Key Message Romgaz reported a solid quarter with RON 1581 mn EBITDA, down 16% YoY andup 43.8% QoQ. The company was able to improve QoQ profitability despite significantly lower gas prices, primarily due to a substantial reduction in windfall taxes from RON 477 mn to RON 77 mn from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024. Other parametersremained relatively stable.
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (18-24 March) • Richter: proposes dividend of HUF 423/share POSITIVE • Romgaz: makes two dividend proposals NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: notes from the Uzbekistan webinar POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: AGM convocation NEUTRAL • Short News (HUG)
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary results in line with the January guidance, strong gross margin of 14.4% NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: HyperPIC selected for PLN 453.6m co-financing under the European Funds for a Modern Economy 2021-2027 POSITIVE • Polish banks: PLN 1,563m of sector contributions to resolution fund in 2024E, guarantee fund contributions still suspended • PZU: most of the Management Board dismissed, but CFO stays • OMV Petrom: signs financing agreement through recovery plan for ...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: incorporating lower power prices (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: publishes 4Q23 results, guides for CZK 9 of 2023 DPS, upgrades 2024-28E EPS guidance NEUTRAL • Akbank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance highlights Kazatomprom: 4Q operational update and guidance NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: SocGen may be mulling over potential sale of its Romanian subsidiary NEUTRAL • Kruk: invests EUR 212m in 1Q24E in Italy,...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: PIC(k) tech, made in Poland (stays BUY) • ING BSK: posts solid 4Q23 and delivers big positive surprise on dividend recommendation POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 4Q23 results and regular dividend in line with estimates, intends to pay special dividends NEUTRAL • OMV: 4Q23 results – net income well below estimates, EUR 5.05/share dividend proposal NEUTRAL • OMV: agrees to sell its Malaysian upstream business to Total Energies NEUTRAL • Borouge: 4Q23 results – net income ab...
HEADLINES: • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: exclusivity in a growing market (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: publishes neutral 4Q23 results, supporting continuation of high ROEs, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts preliminary 4Q23 results, guides for 2023 EUR 1.25 DPS and shares initial 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Romgaz: preliminary figures in line with estimates, conservative 2024E budget NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: full-year 2023 operational results...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q23; how quickly FX mortgage saga costs can drop is key for the future NEUTRAL • Garanti Bank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance – flat 2024E margin, despite headwinds • Romgaz: 4Q23 trading update NEUTRAL • Richter: takes 9.08% stake in Formycon via capital increase NEUTRAL • Short News (AQ)
• Turkey macro: the real assessment begins now • Macro Europe: ECB baby steps, as expected • Krka: 4Q23 earnings hit by an unspecified one-off • Richter: new pharma levy, but this can be offset against the Global Minimum Tax • PCF Group: over 30 people laid off, related to Project Gemini • Hidroelectrica: 2023 preliminary figures and 2024E budget to be published today, after the close • Petrom: 4Q23E earnings preview (due out on 1 February)
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