reports
- Pedro Echeguren
CAF: 1H17 results analysis
CAF reported 1H17 sales of 756mn (+20%), driven by higher manufacturing, a positive. The EBITDA is €86mn (+33%) and the EBITDA margin advanced to 11.4% from 10.2% in 1H16. The EBIT is €68mn (+34%). The backlog increased by 1% yoy to €5,927mn but has declined –5% YTD. CAF took a –€13mn forex loss on BRL debt and net interest costs increased +60% to –€43mn. As a consequence, the growth rate for the PBT is only +3% to €25mn. The net profit is €16mn (+8%) and compares poorly against a consensus est...
- Pedro Echeguren
CAF: 1H17e results preview
We expect first-half sales to increase by +16% to €730mn. This implies 2Q17e sales of €390mn, up from €340mn in 1Q17 as the increase in manufacturing seen in 1Q17 should continue in the second quarter. We continue to recommend to Buy. Our target price of €39.5 (a +4% potential) is unchanged.
Excellent operating performance in 1Q 2017
Better than expected 1Q17 operating results, with an impressive +21% increase in sales from 1Q16 and +18% in EBITDA, beating our estimates and the consensus. EBIT (+21%) was also robust. This strong performance should continue in the next quarters. The orderbook declined slightly as new contract take up fell from €789mn in 1Q16 to €232mn in 1Q17, not enough to compensate work completed. This must not be seen as a negative as contracts won in 2016 ensure a strong manufacturing activity for at l...
2016 Results: In-line
The 2016 results are in-line with our estimates but somehow below consensus. Key points are the jump ahead in orders received (3x from 2015), something that was seen along the year. Positives were the improvement in OWC from 35% of sales to 19% and a –45% decline in net debt. Open the report for the results summary. The results are not far from consensus figures, we judge the difference to be too small to trigger negative comments by who had overestimated the earnings. We see the start of a new...
2016 Results Preview
For the year 2016e, we are expecting a +2% increase in sales and lower operating results (this is in-line with the first nine months): –18% for EBITDA and –21% for EBIT. Lower financial expenses reflecting Forex gains should see the PBT declining by only –1% and the net profit unchanged at €43mn. Following an excellent performance in 2016, the recent share price weakness (-7.1% relative to the Ibex-35 in the last 30 days) that we believe was caused by Kutxabank scaling down its stake in CAF fro...
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