Vicore Pharma: KOL & Mgmt Takeaways, buloxibutid's IPF positioning upd...

Yesterday, we attended a lunch organized by Vicore’s management with Dr. Francesco Bonella, an IPF specialist based in Germany who has advised companies such as Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Galapagos, and BMS in the development of compounds for rare lung diseases. Dr. Bonella is also an investigato

Vicore Pharma: Phase 2b ASPIRE trial making good progress

Vicore Pharma reported its Q1'25 results which mainly focused on balance sheet items and a recap of corporate achievements for the quarter, with notably i) a cash position at SEK1,049m, and ii) opex stable at SEK91.5m (vs SEK99.3m). We are encouraged to see the good progress in the phase 2b ASPIRE

Q1: Good progress with ASPIRE

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - In hope they trust

Q1 revenue missed consensus by 29% and our estimate by 38%. Despite industry-wide challenges, Nel remains optimistic on new orders – although it last booked a sizeable order in late-2022. On the positive side, cash of NOK2.1bn provides investors with decent time optionality awaiting a better market (we do not expect a liquidity injection), added to which it has a good technology track record and know-how. We reiterate our SELL and NOK1.5 target price.

Full stop in Alkaline

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Nel: poor Q1 results

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2025 revenue at NOK155m (-63% QoQ, -44% YoY), 37% below cons. at NOK245m. The quarter was impacted by temporary production halts, with a significant slowdown in the alkaline division negatively impacting (-69% YoY) the scale and the revenue mix. EBITDA loss stood a

Q1 weaker, no improvements in sight

Avance Gas (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Avance Gas, as it no longer has any assets, and does not plan to make any new investments. According to the company, remaining funds after its final USD0.74 DPS, to be paid on 7 May (ex-date 24 April), are expected to be used to settle any outstanding obligations to creditors, including liquidation fees, and the stock is expected to be delisted in June/July 2025. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - No signs of life on the horizon

With no meaningful orders secured since late 2022, weak backlog coverage for 2025e, production facility shut-ins, an uncertain market outlook, and further uncertainties related to its US expansion plans, challenging times are set to remain. While we are in line with consensus ahead of the Q1 report, our 2025e revenues and EBTIDA are 30% and 52% below consensus, respectively, with weak backlog coverage even on our estimates. Focus ahead should be on maintaining the liquidity runway and any equity...

Hafnia (Buy, TP: NOK77.00) - Sentiment reinforces attractive entry po...

In our view, tanker markets remain attractive, with healthy supply/demand fundamentals and potential positive catalysts in increasing OPEC+ volumes and a successful phasing out of the shadow fleet. Coupled with overdone market concerns, leaving the implied value of a 5-year-old MR in Hafnia at ~USD30m (broker quotes were last at this level in Q1 2022, when rates averaged ~USD10k/day), we believe risk is skewed to the upside. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK77 (85), ...

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

In a tough spot