Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Carrefour, Fnac Darty, Casino

Brewers: FY results review and key themes for 2023

The two key investment themes for brewers in 2023 are the re-opening of on-trade in China and sliding production costs in the second half of the year:The re-opening of Chinese on-trade (after the Covid lockdown-policy was abolished) and souring consumer confidence, could spell good news for brewers

Morningstar | Asia Outperforms Again for Carlsberg in 1Q; Raising FVE ...

Carlsberg beat our sales estimates again in the first quarter, posting 6.4% organic growth, supported by volume tailwinds in Asia. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 785 from DKK 750 for the B-shares and to $23.50 from $23 for the ADRs, entirely as a result of raising our revenue growth estimates for the Asia segment for this year and next. After a strong rally in the stock year-to-date, we believe Carlsberg is now slightly overvalued, although we acknowledge that the business is perf...

Morningstar | Asia Outperforms Again for Carlsberg in 1Q; Raising FVE ...

Carlsberg beat our sales estimates again in the first quarter, posting 6.4% organic growth, supported by volume tailwinds in Asia. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 785 from DKK 750 for the B-shares and to $23.50 from $23 for the ADRs, entirely as a result of raising our revenue growth estimates for the Asia segment for this year and next. After a strong rally in the stock year-to-date, we believe Carlsberg is now slightly overvalued, although we acknowledge that the business is perf...

Asia Outperforms Again for Carlsberg in 1Q; Raising FVE But Shares App...

Carlsberg beat our sales estimates again in the first quarter, posting 6.4% organic growth, supported by volume tailwinds in Asia. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 785 from DKK 750 for the B-shares and to $23.50 from $23 for the ADRs, entirely as a result of raising our revenue growth estimates for the Asia segment for this year and next. After a strong rally in the stock year-to-date, we believe Carlsberg is now slightly overvalued, although we acknowledge that the business is perf...

Morningstar | CABGY Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 18 Mar 2019

Carlsberg has its fair share of challenges, but we think it is embarking on the right strategies to improve execution in a highly competitive industry. The company's largest market is Russia, which has been in a multi-year decline due to macroeconomic volatility, a decade-long government clampdown on the availability and affordability of beer, and a shrinking drinking age population (although the market appreared to stabilize in 2018). Even in Western Europe, the emergence of craft, the shift to...

Morningstar | Carlsberg Playing Its Hand Well but Is Lower Quality Tha...

Carlsberg has its fair share of challenges, but we think it is embarking on the right strategies to improve execution in a highly competitive industry. The company's largest market is Russia, which has been in a multi-year decline due to macroeconomic volatility, a decade-long government clampdown on the availability and affordability of beer, and a shrinking drinking age population (although the market appreared to stabilize in 2018). Even in Western Europe, the emergence of craft, the shift to...

Carlsberg Playing Its Hand Well but Is Lower Quality Than Some Competi...

There were few surprises in Carlsberg's fourth-quarter results, with key metrics very much in line with our forecasts. The big news from the press release is an increase in returns of capital to shareholders, with the announcement of a DKK 4.5 billion share repurchase program this year and an increased dividend. We are maintaining our DKK 743 fair value estimate for the ordinary shares, but will raise this in due course to account for the time value of money. We also reiterate our no-moat rating...

Morningstar | Another Strong Quarter for Carlsberg Shows Rationale of ...

There were few surprises in Carlsberg's fourth-quarter results, with key metrics very much in line with our forecasts. The big news from the press release is an increase in returns of capital to shareholders, with the announcement of a DKK 4.5 billion share repurchase program this year and an increased dividend. We are maintaining our DKK 743 fair value estimate for the ordinary shares, but will raise this in due course to account for the time value of money. We also reiterate our no-moat rating...

Another Strong Quarter for Carlsberg Shows Rationale of Asia Investmen...

There were few surprises in Carlsberg's fourth-quarter results, with key metrics very much in line with our forecasts. The big news from the press release is an increase in returns of capital to shareholders, with the announcement of a DKK 4.5 billion share repurchase program this year and an increased dividend. We are maintaining our DKK 743 fair value estimate for the ordinary shares, but will raise this in due course to account for the time value of money. We also reiterate our no-moat rating...

Morningstar | Carlsberg Emerges the Winner in 3Q With Strong Performan...

Carlsberg beat our forecasts for third-quarter revenue growth, reaping the rewards of its execution of its cost-saving programs and favourable weather in some key markets. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 743 from DKK 705 to account for the time value of money and slightly more optimistic near-term assumptions. We are reiterating our no-moat rating but acknowledge that this performance is likely to improve Carlsberg's returns on invested capital. Organic revenue growth was 9%, ahea...

Morningstar | Carlsberg Emerges the Winner in 3Q With Strong Performan...

Carlsberg beat our forecasts for third-quarter revenue growth, reaping the rewards of its execution of its cost-saving programs and favourable weather in some key markets. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 743 from DKK 705 to account for the time value of money and slightly more optimistic near-term assumptions. We are reiterating our no-moat rating but acknowledge that this performance is likely to improve Carlsberg's returns on invested capital. Organic revenue growth was 9%, ahea...

Carlsberg Emerges the Winner in 3Q With Strong Performance in Asia

Carlsberg beat our forecasts for third-quarter revenue growth, reaping the rewards of its execution of its cost-saving programs and favourable weather in some key markets. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 743 from DKK 705 to account for the time value of money and slightly more optimistic near-term assumptions. We are reiterating our no-moat rating but acknowledge that this performance is likely to improve Carlsberg's returns on invested capital. Organic revenue growth was 9%, ahea...

Morningstar | Strong 2Q for Carlsberg but Margin Expansion Already Pri...

Carlsberg performed well in the first half of the year and in line with our forecasts. However, increased guidance for the full year of high-single-digit percentage organic operating income growth implies a stronger second half than we had anticipated, and we may raise our near-term estimates slightly. However, we remain comfortable with our medium-term assumptions, and we are maintaining our DKK 705 fair value estimate. While we acknowledge the positive momentum in the business, we believe Carl...

Strong 2Q for Carlsberg but Margin Expansion Already Priced In

Carlsberg performed well in the first half of the year and in line with our forecasts. However, increased guidance for the full year of high-single-digit percentage organic operating income growth implies a stronger second half than we had anticipated, and we may raise our near-term estimates slightly. However, we remain comfortable with our medium-term assumptions, and we are maintaining our DKK 705 fair value estimate. While we acknowledge the positive momentum in the business, we believe Carl...

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Carlsberg 1Q18 in line, maintains guidance

• Carlsberg's (CARLB) net revenue in 1Q18 declined 5% to DKK12.7bn, just short of the company compiled consensus of DKK12.8bn. Reported revenue was impacted by a negative 5% currency effect, a 2% decline due to the disposal of Nordic Getränke and 2% organic growth (in line). The latter was equally split between organic volume growth and price/mix. Organic volume growth was underpinned by strong growth of international premium brands as well as craft & specialty and alcohol-free. Tuborg was u...

Carlsberg's Lack of Economic Moat Evident in 3Q; Margin Expansion Pric...

Carlsberg's third-quarter trading update epitomized our investment thesis for both the company and the wider consumer staples sector. Strong structural and cyclical headwinds remain, meaning that organic sales growth is running well below historical rates and EBIT growth depends on cost efficiencies. Durable competitive advantages can help to offset these pressures, but we do not believe Carlsberg has an economic moat, and the modest third-quarter sales contraction lends some support to this bel...

More Progress on Margins in 1H for Carlsberg, but Lack of Moat May Lim...

There were few surprises in Carlsberg’s first-half earnings report, with revenue only slightly below our above-consensus estimate, and earnings roughly in line. Strong cost and cash management made this another decent quarter for Carlsberg, but our no-moat rating reflects the lower pricing power and scale efficiencies of the business relative to competitors. With mid-single-digit EBIT growth, the firm is currently performing in line with our medium-term forecasts, and the market appears to be ...

More Progress on Margins in 1H for Carlsberg, but Lack of Moat May Lim...

There were few surprises in Carlsberg’s first-half earnings report, with revenue only slightly below our above-consensus estimate, and earnings roughly in line. Strong cost and cash management made this another decent quarter for Carlsberg, but our no-moat rating reflects the lower pricing power and scale efficiencies of the business relative to competitors. With mid-single-digit EBIT growth, the firm is currently performing in line with our medium-term forecasts, and the market appears to be ...

Carlsberg Makes Solid Start to 2017; Shares Fairly Valued

Carlsberg’s first-quarter trading update puts the firm perfectly on track to meet our full-year expectation of 4% organic growth and just over 5% on a reported basis. We are raising our fair value estimate to DKK 665 from DKK 610 to account for the time value of money over the past year, and we regard the shares as being fairly valued. Although first-quarter pricing of 4% indicates pricing in line with the bets of the global brewers, we expect this to be relatively temporary, and we are mainta...