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Karen Andersen
  • Karen Andersen

Maintaining Our FVE for Shire and Takeda During Extended Offer Period

We’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates for Shire (GBP 48.90 per share/$205 per ADR) or Takeda (JPY 5,400) following Shire’s first-quarter results and continued negotiations between the two firms regarding a merger. The latest offer from Takeda, made on April 24—GBP 49 per share, including almost GBP 22 per share in cash (the highest proportion of cash of any of the prior four offers)—is not a formal bid, but we expect Takeda to formalize the bid by the new May 8 deadlin...

Karen Andersen
  • Karen Andersen

Shire Remains Undervalued as Takeda Weighs Higher Bid and Allergan Ent...

Shire has released details of recent negotiations with Takeda, detailing three proposed (and rejected) bids from the Japanese pharmaceutical firm. Allergan is also now evaluating a potential offer for Shire. We’re maintaining our GBX 4,890 per share/$205 per ADR valuation for Shire; shares remain undervalued, in our view, and the firm’s growing plasma business and steady rare-disease portfolio contribute to its narrow moat rating. As we noted previously, we think the market’s focus on comp...

Karen Andersen
  • Karen Andersen

Takeda Considers Swallowing Shire, a Somewhat Surprising Move That Cou...

Japanese pharma firm Takeda said it is officially considering making an offer for diversified rare-disease-focused Shire in what would probably be a merger of equals (both companies have recently traded around the $40 billion market cap level). We are maintaining our fair value estimates for both until we see evidence that discussions are advancing; an official offer is expected in April. While we see Takeda's shares as fairly valued, we’ve seen Shire’s shares as significantly undervalued in...

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