reports
- Lorraine Tan
- CFA
Noble Group’s Liquidity Constraints Take a Bite, Our Fair Value Esti...
Our fair value estimate for no-moat Noble Group is little changed, rising to SGD 0.18 from SGD 0.17, following the release of the company’s 2016 full-year results. We’re a little disappointed with the low profit on its energy trades and have lowered our assumptions for its near-term trading margins reflecting the impact of hedges limiting gains in a rising price environment. However, the company’s 2016 net profit of USD 252.1 million (USD 8.7 million excluding profit contributions from bus...
- Lorraine Tan
- CFA
Noble Group Up on Takeover Talk, We Keep Our Fair Value Estimate at SG...
Noble Group’s share price has jumped in recent days following the revelation that it is in discussion to bring in a strategic shareholder that will strengthen the company’s financial position. At this stage, we retain our fair value estimate at SGD 0.17 ahead of the company's full-year results release on Feb. 23. We think upside to our fair value estimate could come from signs of improving working capital efficiency that would help alleviate the need to rely on more debt to fund its trading ...
- Lorraine Tan
- CFA
Noble Group Up on Takeover Talk, We Keep Our Fair Value Estimate at SG...
Noble Group’s share price has jumped in recent days following the revelation that it is in discussion to bring in a strategic shareholder that will strengthen the company’s financial position. At this stage, we retain our fair value estimate at SGD 0.17 ahead of the company's full-year results release on Feb. 23. We think upside to our fair value estimate could come from signs of improving working capital efficiency that would help alleviate the need to rely on more debt to fund its trading ...
- Lorraine Tan
- CFA
Updating Our Margin of Safety Methodology for Extreme-Uncertainty Stoc...
We are updating our methodology for extreme-uncertainty stocks to introduce a margin of safety for a 5-star rating of a 75% discount and for a 1-star rating a 300% premium. Extreme-uncertainty stocks will carry a 3-star rating when they trade between a 50% discount and a 150% premium. As is the case for all stocks, a 5-star rating will indicate our expectation that returns are highly likely to exceed a firm's cost of equity over a multiyear time frame. A 3-star rating indicates our belief that i...
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