reports
- R.J. Hottovy
Amazon is capitalizing on new sources of cash flow beyond AWS, Prime, ...
Amazon's top- and bottom-line outperformance was the clear story of its first-quarter update. However, we believe the more important takeaway for investors is that the drivers are built to last while simultaneously enhancing the sources behind our wide moat rating. Amazon's core retail profit functions--which we consider to be third-party seller services and retail subscriptions--accelerated to 44% and 60% growth, respectively. While both line items saw modest benefit from revenue recognition a...
- R.J. Hottovy
Built to Last: Amazon's Core and Emergent Business Lines Make for a Lo...
Amazon's top- and bottom-line outperformance was the clear story of its first-quarter update. However, we believe the more important takeaway for investors is that the drivers are built to last while simultaneously enhancing the sources behind our wide moat rating. Amazon's core retail profit functions--which we consider to be third-party seller services and retail subscriptions--accelerated to 44% and 60% growth, respectively. While both line items saw modest benefit from revenue recognition a...
- William Basa
- R.J. Hottovy
Amazon's Risk Profile Is Evolving but Company Still Well Positioned Ov...
After an up-and-down week following criticisms from President Trump, investors in wide-moat Amazon likely find themselves with greater uncertainty about what, if any, regulatory restrictions the current administration could impose. Despite the headlines, we see increased regulatory oversight as a low-probability event over the near future and see little reason to change our $1,600 fair value estimate. However, we also think our high uncertainty rating accounts for new potential regulatory risks,...
- William Basa
GMR Macro Technicals - 6 April 2018
Amazon (AMZN) has resurfaced and is about hit its first major test on the upside since the break. Meanwhile USDJPY hasn't made contact with monthly downtrend since the January break. It should get its first look at that sell structure today or next week. Treasuries and stocks are neutral and widespread heading into US employment number. See GMR Macro Technicals for specific price levels and detailed Trade Strategy.
- William Basa
- William Basa
- William Basa
- William Basa
- William Basa
- William Basa
Macro Technicals - March Monthly Outlooks - 2 March 2018
Favorites trades for the month are the continuation of trend in USDJPY, with deep new target lows, and aggressive sales of Treasuries on strength to March downtrends and developing Q2 resistance. See Macro Technicals for detailed price forecasts and specific market-by-market Trade Strategy,
- William Basa
- R.J. Hottovy
Partnership With Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Offers Amazon Cleares...
Though details are sparse, we view the Jan. 30 announcement that wide-moat Amazon, wide-moat Berkshire Hathaway, and narrow-moat JPMorgan Chase will form "an independent healthcare company that is free from profit-making incentives and constraints" as an intriguing partnership that opens up Amazon to a more serious push into other healthcare products and services. Instead of directly entering the market through an acquisition of or partnership with a pharmacy benefit manager, insurer, drugstore,...
- R.J. Hottovy
Amazon Taps Whole Foods to Satisfy Its Hunger to Expand Its Grocery Pl...
On Nov. 16, wide-moat Amazon announced its intentions to acquire narrow-moat Whole Foods Market in a $13.7 billion all-cash deal, which equates to $42 per share or around a 25% premium to our fair value estimate and the prior market close. The transaction is valued at a forward enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 11 times. We intend to raise our $33.50 fair value estimate for Whole Foods to the deal price (adjusted for the time value of money), as we don’t foresee another bid surfacing before ...
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