Eutelsat: Q3 in line but under pressure as Russia hit and qoq weakness...

Eutelsat has reported Q3 FY24–25 operating revenues of EUR300.6m, in line with consensus (EUR302m), and reiterated full-year guidance. The group disclosed a EUR16m annualised revenue and EBITDA impact from the enforcement of EU sanctions mandating the cessation of Russian TV broadcasts—set to fully

SES: Q1 above expectations, but uneventful quarter

Solid Q1 relative to expectations, with revenues of EUR509m (+3.5% vs css, in line with BGe) and an EBITDA margin of 55.0%, 500bps ahead of consensus (BGe: 50.0%), driving a 14% beat on adj. EBITDA at EUR280m. Nonetheless, the print is relatively uneventful, with Networks revenues broadly flat qoq

Satcom update: Competitive pressure shows no sign of easing

We update our satcom outlook following The Next Launch Window industry brief. We remain concerned about incumbent operators, as we see no evidence of sustainable strategic positioning against Starlink—and soon Kuiper—as competitive threats intensify. European demand for sovereign capabilities could

Eutelsat: finally, something to hold on to?

We reassess our investment case after the recent share price rally and speculation that Eutelsat could replace Starlink in Europe, amid rising European reliance on OneWeb for strategic satcoms. Near-term volatility should persist as speculation has yet to translate into concrete revenue. However, w

SES: a strong Q4 in line with last week's trading update

Q4 results exceeded css on both revenue (+2% vs. css) and margin (+460bps vs. css), although this was largely anticipated following last week’s trading update. In our view, the strong operational performance was driven primarily by stronger-than-expected Networks and disciplined cost control, with

SES: defying Moody’s downgrade with a FY24 pre-release

SES issued a market update ahead of its FY24 results on 26th February 2025. The update follows Moody’s downgrade of SES’s outlook from stable to negative, with its credit rating remaining just one notch above non-investment grade. SES now expects adj. EBITDA to exceed the guidance range (EUR950–1,0

Eutelsat: modest revenue and margin beat, LEO capex recalibrated

Eutelsat released H1 results this morning, marginally ahead of consensus (+0.6% revenue, +40bps adj. EBITDA margin), though partly driven by one-offs, including a change in revenue recognition for Video contracts. The group reaffirmed all FY25 targets and lowered its capex guidance by EUR200m to EU

€10.6bn Iris² contract signed: a challenging deal for SES and Eutelsat

The contract for Iris², the European sovereign constellation, was signed yesterday. While widely expected, the announcement offered more clarity on the project’s financial and technical framework. European operators will invest a combined EUR4bn, with SES contributing up to EUR1.8bn and leading the

Eutelsat: no growth reacceleration in sight

Eutelsat's Q1 revenues came in 3% below consensus, primarily due to a 7.3% organic yoy decline in Video and Mobility revenues falling 9% below css. While the quarter was relatively uneventful, we underscore the limited revenue progression, with Q1 topline figures nearly matching last year's Q3 (-12

SES: model update pre-Q3 2024

We have updated our estimates ahead of Q3 2024 results, with the revised figures outlined in the table below. Our PT is adjusted from EUR6.1 to EUR5.7, primarily due to a downward revision in our Video revenue forecasts. Despite this adjustment, we maintain our Buy recommendation, as we continue to

Eutelsat: model update pre-Q4 2024

We have revised our estimates ahead of Q4 2024 results. Our updated estimates are detailed in the table below. Our Sell recommendation and PT remain unchanged. Eutelsat will report FY24 results on 9th August.

SES: model update pre-Q2 2024

We have revised our estimates ahead of Q2 2024 results. Our updated estimates are detailed in the table below. Our Buy recommendation remains unchanged, as we continue to consider the shares undervalued and view the attractive dividend yield as limiting downside risk. Our PT has been revised to EUR

Eutelsat: OneWeb's Momentum Yet to Take Hold

Q3 results were uneventful, with revenues meeting expectations at EUR300m (vs css EUR304m). Video decline has reverted to normative levels, while connectivity revenues have surged by 7% qoq and 37% yoy (on a reported basis), propelled by incremental GEO capacity and contributions from OneWeb. In ou

Satcoms' Muskonomics challenge

In this report, we assess the outlook for the satcoms sector amidst the heightened risk of Starlink and Amazon duopolising the industry. Incumbent operators face a strategic stalemate against the emerging 'gigaconstellations' due to cost uncompetitiveness, limited differentiation opportunities, hig

SES: Capital allocation strategy remains paramount

We maintain our BUY recommendation on SES (revised PT to EUR7.4 from EUR6.5) anticipating that new leadership and diminishing industry returns for capital addition in light of gigaconstellations dominance could trigger a more shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with updates expected alongside

Eutelsat: Caught between a rock and a hard place?

We reiterate our SELL recommendation on Eutelsat (revised PT to EUR3.1 from EUR5.3), as we see the operator caught between a rock and a hard place in light of increasingly crowded LEO competition combined, while rising capital costs constrain investment capabilities.This note is part of a report as

Model update

We have updated our estimates, with the changes detailed in the table below. Our price target (PT) has been revised from EUR7.1 to EUR6.5. Buy recommendation unchanged.

An update on Starlink and Iris²: time to revisit our views on the sect...

In this report, we delve into changes in the satcom competitive landscape in recent months. Our findings show a rapid expansion of Starlink over the past semester, and identify uncertainties related to the outcome of Iris², the European sovereign constellation project. Our outlook for Eutelsat rema

Bryan, Garnier & Co | ALFEN, DT, TIM, TEF, ETL, COP, ELIS, SGE

7.5% organic decline... as expected

Eutelsat has reported Q3 2022-23 revenues down 7.5% on an organic basis, in line with expectations, while FY23e guidance is confirmed. Growth was particularly weak this quarter due to (i) sanctions against Russian and Iranian channels and the carry-forward effect of the low rate of DoD renewals, (i