Hybridan Small Cap Feast 14/11/2023

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Ergomed has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** 9 November: Chapel Down Group ITF: England's leading and largest wine producer with an award-winning range of sparkling and still wines, under the Chapel Down brand. The Company owns, leases and sources from 1,023 acres of vineyards in South East England announces its Admission to AIM after its transfer from the Aquis Apex market. The Company will not be raising new capital or providing...

iMetal Resources Inc. (TSXV: IMR / OTCQB: IMRFF / FSE: A7V) – An Emerg...

Fundamental Research Corp has issued a report entitled “An Emerging Gold/Graphite Junior Near Established Majors and Juniors - Initiating Coverage” and dated September 28, 2023. The full report is now at

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 Sep 23

22th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob...

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - China's seasonality, illustrated

‘Sell in May and go away’. Is there a fundamental basis for this old trade expression in Commodity World? We think so, at least for China’s 1Bnt/yr steel & iron ore trades. For many years now, we’ve been flagging China-related upside risk in steel/ore trade flows and prices, in the early months of every calendar. It’s that country’s post-northern winter competitive restock, to secure its 80%-share of seaborne ore supply. This seasonal kick almost always reports across China’s trade/conversion/de...

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator stays on SELL - Demand deteoriates sharp...

The Restocking Indicator is having a bearish year. The signal has reported a SELL, or very close to it, since late January. This month saw the sharpest new orders contraction since last July. Mills remain firmly in destock mode; China’s reopening trade continues to disappoint; confidence in real estate is weak. We still expect market signals to define floors in H2, with upside risk building later in the year – most likely on 2024’s industrial restock.

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - What value, Commodity World?

What are global commodity markets worth? About US$6.5tn – Metals, Steels and Energy. While this figure’s down a massive 20%YoY, it’s still the 3rd-highest on record. Why did it fall? Dominant driver’s the passing of 2022’s war-prompted inflation, partly a response to a US Fed-led rate hikes. Curiously, commodity supply/demand/trade shifts over the past year have been quite modest, with most markets expanding in-line with broader economic growth, while shouldering extreme price trend-shifts and v...

LIBERUM: Morning Comment

Commodity snapSHOT, easyJet, IDS, Tyman, Market Highlights

LIBERUM: Morning Comment

 Ilika, ATOME Energy, Anglo American, British Land, Mitchells & Butlers, Uniphar, Ashtead Technology, On the Beach, Safestyle, Market Highlights

LIBERUM: Anglo American - Diamond prices continue to soften

DeBeers announced the fourth diamond sale of the year of $480m, down from $604m in the previous year. Prices appear to be driven by the fall in polished diamond index, down 7% YTD or -23% from the peak in March last year. Demand outlook is tough, given the global economic slowdown, featuring a weak post-lockdown China story. Bullish price events: slowing synthetic supply growth, and the West continues to seek a ban on Russian trade – more a hopeful than an effective strategy, in our view.

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Critical minerals for UK - mining an...

Virgin mining: Energy security and decarbonisation are driving the race in the sourcing of critical minerals from the natural world. This has contributed to the revival of exploration activities in the US, Europe and to a lesser degree the UK. For example, the global identified lithium resources increased from 40m tonnes in 2015 (the Paris Agreement year) to 97m tonnes in 2023, at a CAGR of 12%, according to the U.S. Geological Survey data. For example, there was no identified lithium resources ...

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Apr 23

27th April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object...

LIBERUM: Morning Comment

Commodity snapSHOT, Centamin, SigmaRoc, AB Dynamics, Card Factory, Loungers, hVIVO, Flowtech Fluidpower, Mining LOWdown, Market Highlights

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - Gold’s price containment, explained

‘Mate, I don’t get it: we’ve had a virus sweep the planet, multiple inflation shocks, bank failures, deteriorating growth/trade conditions – and Russia’s war drags on …but this wonderfully bullish backdrop for gold can’t lift its price much above $2,000/oz. Why?’ There are lots of frustrated gold investors out there right now. For years now, anyone buying gold for some longer-term price upside on this collection of dramatic macro-themes has had a tough time. Since 2020’s lockdown, gold’s price h...

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - Steel & Rust – seasonal peak

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator stays on hold - Mills lack confidence on...

The Restocking Indicator stays on HOLD, and so matches up with our short-term expectation that iron ore prices will be range bound for the next couple of months. There has been an improvement in domestic demand, but no post-lockdown ‘fireworks’ in play. Certainly not enough to get China’s steel mills, or us, excited on the short-term steel/ore outlook. Worth keeping an eye on rising pollution levels, for this could prompt policy action and lift lump/pellet/high grade premiums – bullish for AAL/F...

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - Bank-rattled commodities, illustrated

FACT: if gold’s price lifts, when those of industrial metals fall – that’s bearish. High-profile bank failures – SVB and Credit Suisse – prompted this rare, but widely understood signal divergence. Also, price sensitivity to the event was probably enhanced by the fact that Resources’ sector activity is subdued right now. Why? President Xi just flagged a modest 5% GDP target for 2023 + US Fed’s still chasing inflation + Russia’s war troubles the growth outlook …so, Commodity World was vulnerable ...

Millennial Potash Corp. (formerly Black Mountain Gold USA Corp.) (TSXV...

Fundamental Research Corp has issued a report entitled “A Low-Cost Alternative for Africa and Brazil’s Fertilizer Demand – Resuming Coverage” and dated March 16, 2023. The full report is now at

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - Tactical trading ideas

The epic rally across most metal/steel-related prices, which began last November, has ended. Bear factors? We see three: 1. market’s disappointment with China’s 5% GDP growth target for 2023 (last week’s NPC); 2. US Fed’s undaunted inflation-targeting hawkish pitch (ignores collapse in global energy prices; further hikes support US real rates/currency = drags on demand for no-yield commodities); 3. on-going deterioration in geo-political backdrop (saps investor confidence on growth outlook). Yes...

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator back to Hold - Demand improves, but inve...

The Restocking Indicator has upgraded to HOLD, after reporting a sell last month. Domestic demand has improved, although it is still being outpaced by the expansion in finished inventories. We believe a neutral sector call is sensible, ahead of China’s National People’s Congress this weekend. This annual event typically features the central government’s growth strategy for the year. Note, we do not expect stimulus fireworks, given the demand recovery reported over recent months. Statements on po...

LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - Lithium's bearish price drivers, listed

Lithium’s reporting one of the weakest commodity price performances of the New Year, down 25% year-to-date, and 35-40% down from this trade’s record-highs of 2022. It’s a big move. And while most market forecasters like us have been calling for this correction for months now, we’re probably a tad surprised that it has finally occurred. Why? Because EV-backed demand growth (66% of total lithium demand) has far exceeded most forecasts since 2021. We’ve basically struggled to assess the bullish hit...