reports
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Buy rating untouched after earnings recalibration
Post-FY, we have cut our sales, EBIT and retail FCF estimates by 1%, 5% and 8% respectively, to reflect price investments made YTD in the UK. However, we do not expect a full-blown price war with the need to further reinvest, and are pricing in the top-end of FY EBIT guidance. Consensus has recalib
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: can Asda really revive the price war in the UK?
As Asda's new leader sends the group to the front line with a very aggressive and risky price repositioning plan, we struggle to identify a scenario whereby Asda would have enough ammunition to hold out. The feared scenario of a revived price war in the UK is not (yet) here, but we are adopting a s
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: sacrificing a short-term guidance upgrade for longer-term volum...
The Christmas period was strong with Tesco proactively investing further and building volume momentum. The group has traded in a potential guidance upgrade for longer-term volume gains, which makes sense in view of its competitors' limited room for manoeuvre. Buy reiterated with a 403p PT and persi
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: UK budget's extra staff costs eventually positive for competiti...
With the UK budget for 2025 set to onboard more staff costs for all food retailers o/w GBP460m estimated for Tesco, we remain confident in the group's ability to mitigate the impact with cost-savings while the UK's two laggards, Asda and Morrisons, look set to be squeezed for longer. As the UK groc
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
UK Retail: relief on relatively unharmful 2025 budget
The tax increases outlined in the UK's 2025 budget have proved to be skewed towards corporates and wealthy households with the prospect of manageable extra-staff costs for Tesco (Buy) and Deliveroo (Neutral) and better purchasing power prospects, fuelling a continued recovery in grocery volume &
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: P10 UK market share on the same trend as recent months
Following the P10 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix no longer negative, no price war in sight until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlocking strong market share momentum
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: "beat-and-raise" cycle still in motion post-H1
Post-another strong H1 publication and guidance upgrade, we continue to view Tesco as a "beat-and-raise" story with continued ability to lift guidance and positively surprise, and have lifted our FY 2024-26 FCF by c.6% and our PT to 404p. Tesco's exposure to the still healthy UK market combined wit
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: H1 EBIT beat and a welcome FY EBIT guidance upgrade
Post Tesco's strong set of H1 figures (particularly EBIT while sales were just in line), we view the FY retail EBIT guidance upgrade to "around GBP2.9bn" as sufficient enough to please investors and prompt a few estimates upgrades among sell-side analysts. Tesco's exposure to the healthy UK market
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #39
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we discuss the Fed's upcoming meeting and rate cut. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: defensive appeal and earnings momentum overshadow stretched val...
Ahead of the H1 release on 3rd October, we have lifted our FY FCF by c.3% and our PT from 349p to 386p on the back of better market dynamics and Tesco's market share development. While acknowledging the stretched valuation, we continue to favour Tesco (Buy) alongside Ahold Delhaize (Buy) as a conti
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: P08 momentum gains ground in a healthier UK market
Following the P08 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix back to growth, accelerating and looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution curre
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Still accelerating in an increasingly healthy market
Post P06 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix back in positive territory and looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlock
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: ever-stronger momentum
Post-Q1 publication and P06 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its over-exposure to a still healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlocking eve
- Clement Genelot
French Food Retail: welcome back to deflation
With France returning to food deflation in May at -0.1%, and the trend set to persist if not worsen over coming months, we foresee even more negative market growth and a greater likelihood of a price war in the short-term. Among the key grocery markets, France is becoming the hotspot, fuelling our
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