reports
- Marina Le Blanc
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: Benefitting from higher equity markets and neutral Covid-19 impact. Ahold Delhaize: 4Q20 preview –share-of-wallet transfer to retail drives top-line growth. ArcelorMittal: Impressive 17% 4Q20 EBITDA beat and US$1.6bn cash returned. Euronext: Strong beat on EBITDA; cost guidance disappoints (more timing savings). Fagron: Subdued 2H20, but mostly in-line. KBC: Cash return FY21 c.5.5% yield, conservative 15.5% CET1 excess capital threshold. Montea: FY results, prudent 2021 ambiti...
- Albert Ploegh
- CEFA
- Bert Colijn
- Julie Cichon
- Marcel Klok
- Maureen Schuller
- Mirjam Bani
- Philippe Ledent
- Steven Trypsteen
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Teunis Brosens
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
a.s.r.: Confirmation of capital return ambitions expected. AEGON: US earnings to recover in 2H, fueled by equity market rally. AMG: 45% lithium capacity expansion, de-risked through 5Y offtake. ASM International: New CFO with a strong track record. Fugro: CFO leaving, search for successor initiated. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Strong acceleration in 4Q20. NN Group: Capital return ambition expected to be confirmed. Signify: Shareholders and employees rewarded. Staffing sector: Page Gro...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ABN AMRO: Focus on NII, KYC and cost control. Euronav: 3Q19 in line, 4Q outcome difficult to predict. KBC: Decent performance expected in challenging market conditions. Kinepolis: Approval no longer needed to open new cinema complexes in Belgium. NN Group: New CEO, consistent messaging expected. Telenet Group: 3Q19 preview
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Dutch financials/Banks more affected by the thin cap rule
During the annual budget day (Prinsjesdag, the third Tuesday of September) the Dutch government published its 2020 tax plan. The 2020 tax plan provides, among other things, for the introduction of the anticipated thin cap rule for banks and insurers. We consider banks to be more exposed than insurance companies to the tax change.
- Albert Ploegh
- CEFA
NN Group/Capital return expectations not de-railed/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating. Macro headwinds have increased but investment case is not derailed: (1) we continue to see headroom to return more excess capital to shareholders; (2) NN delivered on its double-digit DPS growth promise over 2018 and we see room to grow dividends by 5-7% pa in the medium term; (3) on track for delivering promised cost savings; (4) cash remittances and Holding cash buffer are at very comfortable levels (€2.2bn 2Q19); and (5) several levers can be pulled to maintain ...
- Marcel Klok
- Maureen Schuller
- Philippe Ledent
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Benelux Morning Notes
Euronext: On track to reach FY19 cost guidance. KBC: Underlying results in line (solid), CET1 underlying a touch light. NN Group: Decent results but less strong than headlines suggest. SBM Offshore: Moving forward, preferably fast. Sligro: Ambitious goals for the Belgian operations. TomTom: Capital repayment sheds light on attractive FCF yield. VolkerWessels: Solid first quarter
Benelux Morning Notes
Euronext: Regulatory clearance obtained to acquire up to 100% of Oslo Børs VPS. Fagron: Gains foothold in Mexican market with €16.5m Cedrosa acquisition. Heijmans: Dutch SME sector lobbies for shorter payment terms. NN Group and Ageas: Potential interest in Spanish Caser (press articles). VolkerWessels: Preview: Be aware of IFRS 16
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: Leverage ratio a negative surprise, business plan in line with expectations. Arcadis: One legacy gone, one remains. DSM: Happy Valentine Buyback. KBC: Results of good quality, small miss on DPS but policy in line with commitment. NN Group: The long awaited share buyback (€0.5bn) has arrived. Ordina: Solid 4Q18 results with some small positives. SBM Offshore: FY18 review - dividend and 3rd hull say a lot. Telenet Group: Q4 FCF and KPIs below, 2019 guidance a bit below. Un...
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica: Buys €450m UK portfolio. Bekaert: Look for the silver lining. bpost: sale of old Brussels X sorting centre finalised. bpost: CLA agreement reached but costs at high-end. Euronext: Acquires 78% stake in Commcise. IBA: PT One contract signed in Belgium. NN Group: NN IP and ING Bank Slaski strengthen partnership in Poland. Takeaway.com: Deal in Germany, strong support for the investment case.
Benelux Morning Notes
BinckBank: Friendly all cash offer by Saxo Bank of €6.35 accepted by management. bpost: Feedback ING Benelux conference New York. Brunel: Feedback ING Benelux conference New York. Covivo: BNS merger conditions satisfied. Flow Traders: November ETP market volumes. Belgian Telecoms: BIPT cost models, some clarifications. Dutch Insurance: EIOPA stress test.
Benelux Morning Notes
Euronext: Markets slowdown in November. Melexis: Analyst day feedback. NN Group: PIM implementation of Delta Lloyd to add 9ppt. PostNL: >20% more parcel volumes between Black Friday and Sinterklaas / St Nicholas. Telenet Group: Not much new. Vonovia: 3Q results in line; Adapting to change
- Albert Ploegh
- CEFA
NN Group/Moving closer and closer to share buyback(s)/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating. Investment case: (1) Track record on cost savings is solid, (2) cash remittances and holding cash buffer are at very comfort levels, (3) sound operational capital generation profile can be maintained, (4) 2018F DPS could surprise positively INGF DPS €1.95 (+17.5% YoY) vs €1.86 company-compiled consensus and (5) clearly room for a special capital return, with headroom for a share buyback of €500m for 2019 and potentially recurring for several years.
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