Barclays reported strong capital but lowered its NIM guidance. This lower guidance suggests that revenue support from higher rates is slowing down. Negative implications are instead only starting to come through as cost of risk guidance implies a weaker 2H. 2H issuance is likely to focus on senior debt. Barclays announced it will call its AT1, a positive also for its outstanding callable paper.
We look at the progress in unsecured bond supply of the largest banks in 11 European countries, covering 28 bond issuers. We estimate that these banks have, on a year-to-date basis, completed on average 52% of their 2021 (unsecured) funding programmes. We consider banks in Belgium, Spain and France to be especially well positioned in terms of issuance progress as compared with expected total funding for the year. Banks in Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands may be more active in 2H21.
UK banks HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group and Standard Chartered have reported their 1Q21 numbers, while Barclays is set to report tomorrow. The general message so far regarding loan quality has been rather reassuring, with three of these banks improving guidance for cost of risk in 2021.
EBA published the 2018 stress test results for European banks today (2 November). Altogether 48 financial institutions covering around 70% of the total banking assets across the region were tested. The weakest banks based on stressed capital ratios were in the UK, Italy, Germany and France. The strongest banking sectors were found in Norway, Finland and Poland.
Barclays' (BACR) board members have been exploring wide-ranging contingency plans including a merger with Standard Chartered (STANLN) according to the FT citing people familiar with the matter. The story underlines that there has not been formal discussions of the potential combination with Standard Chartered on the Barclays board, but a private conversation had taken place between a director at each bank.
Barclays (BACR) indicated yesterday that the UK Crown Court had dismissed all charges brought by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) against Barclays PLC and Barclays Bank. The charges were related to Barclays' capital raising in 2008 regarding fraud by false representations relating to agreements with Qatar Holding and unlawful financial assistance in relation to a US$3bn loan provided to the State of Qatar. According to Barclays, the SFO is likely to re-instate these charges by applying to High C...
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