>Topic of the week: the good, the not good and the worrying - From the batch of Q1 results, one outstanding performance stands out, the one of Miu Miu that again grew in excess of 80% this quarter. Astutely combining quiet luxury with fantasy, the sister brand of Prada together with Loewe - part of LVMH F&L - are probably the franchises encapsulating the most the current zeitgeist among young luxury shoppers. It stands for only 22% of the group sales and the reaction ...
>Topic of the week: the good, the not good and the worrying - From the batch of Q1 results, one outstanding performance stands out, the one of Miu Miu that again grew in excess of 80% this quarter. Astutely combining quiet luxury with fantasy, the sister brand of Prada together with Loewe - part of LVMH F&L - are probably the franchises encapsulating the most the current zeitgeist among young luxury shoppers. It stands for only 22% of the group sales and the reaction ...
EPS growth prospects are brighter in the US than in Europe, which is justified given the differential in the growth and inflation outlook between the two regions. However, the adjustment that has taken place on EPS in Europe is a positive factor: we are now "at the price" ahead of the cyclical recovery that is taking shape for the rest of 2024. Sector-wise, the ongoing upward revision of EPS in travel & leisure, banks and media is expected to continue apace and provide support for sec...
Les perspectives de croissance des BPA sont supérieures aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe, ce qui est justifié étant donné le différentiel de perspectives de croissance et d’inflation entre les deux zones. L’ajustement qui a eu lieu sur les BPA en Europe est toutefois un facteur positif : nous sommes désormais « au prix » avant la reprise cyclique qui se dessine pour la suite de 2024. Sectoriellement, la révision à la hausse en cours des BPA sur le Travel & Leisure, les banques et les Media...
>Topic of the week: what we know, what we need - At least we now know with good precision what we need in order for the sector’s perception to improve again. Reporting Q1 sales that featured 2% growth at cc for its soft luxury division, LVMH indicated that over the quarter spending from the Chinese cluster grew 10% while the local demand from Europeans, Americans and Japanese taken together was down in low single digit. To get to the reacceleration, we and the consens...
>Topic of the week: what we know, what we need - At least we now know with good precision what we need in order for the sector’s perception to improve again. Reporting Q1 sales that featured 2% growth at cc for its soft luxury division, LVMH indicated that over the quarter spending from the Chinese cluster grew 10% while the local demand from Europeans, Americans and Japanese taken together was down in low single digit. To get to the reacceleration, we and the consens...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
>Swiss watch exports: March down -16.1% leads to a Q1 at -6.3% y-o-y (luxury category also negative over the quarter at -2.8%) - - Over March 2024, exports amounted to CHF 2,002m down 16.1% y-o-y after -3.6% in February and +3.1% in January. This is a very weak figure but was obviously impacted to a good extent by a negative working days effect. On the whole, Q1 was down -6.3% (as a reminder: Q4 2023 witnessed +4.7% growth, FY 2023 growth ended at +7.6%). The l...
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
The logistics market is our preferred real estate segment, where the coming growth remains undervalued. We prefer the high growth stock within this segment, CTP. We also have Outperform recommendations on Argan, Montea and VGP. We believe WDP is fully valued, though. - ...
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
>Topic of the week: no party planned this earnings season - If the most recent trends for luxury stocks are to be taken seriously, expectations related to the coming Q1 earnings season must have been seriously downgraded over the last weeks. The sector as a whole now witnesses a YTD gain below 10% and modestly above the one visible on the Stoxx 600; Hermès aside, it is trading at a discount versus pre-Covid. If a few franchises with above average brand momentum and/or...
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
>Topic of the week: let’s talk about prices - Above trend rises in unit prices have been a visible feature of the post-Covid strong revenue growth posted by the luxury industry at large. Historically, the annual growth of the sector runs at +8%/+10% on average with volume, price and mix contributing more or less equally but the post-Covid economic backdrop has allowed a faster pace of annual price rises: we estimate that the average price inflation ended up close to h...
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