reports
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank on it/Costly French retail exit may be just the right thing to do...
HSBC has flagged the potential sale of its French retail business, with a resultant pretax loss estimated at €1.9bn for HBCE and a negative 15bp CET1 ratio effect on HSBC Holdings. Despite the negative optics, we consider such a sale as supportive of the bank's target to simplify its operations and to concentrate on more profitable activities.
- Julie Cichon
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
European banks/Supply shifts to senior from subordinated
We look at the progress in unsecured bond supply of the largest banks in 11 European countries, covering 28 bond issuers. We estimate that these banks have, on a year-to-date basis, completed on average 52% of their 2021 (unsecured) funding programmes. We consider banks in Belgium, Spain and France to be especially well positioned in terms of issuance progress as compared with expected total funding for the year. Banks in Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands may be more active in 2H21.
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
DANSKE DANSKE BANK A/S
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
BRIO BANCO SANTANDER RIO B
SGBJ SOCIETE GENERALE DE BANQUE-JORDANIE
SCBK STANDARD CHARTERED BANK KENYA LTD
CABK CAIXABANK SA
NWG NATWEST GROUP PLC
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
BCS. BARCLAYS PLC CEDEAR
HSBC.. HSBC HOLDINGS PLC CEDEAR
NDA DK NORDEA BANK ABP
LYG. LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC CEDEAR
ERSTE BANK DER OESTERREICHISCHEN SPARKASSEN AG ERSTE NTX INDEX
BBV. BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. CEDEAR
688598 KBC (A)
- Alyssa Gammoudy
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
UK banks: The return of the releases
UK banks HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest Group and Standard Chartered have reported their 1Q21 numbers, while Barclays is set to report tomorrow. The general message so far regarding loan quality has been rather reassuring, with three of these banks improving guidance for cost of risk in 2021.
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank on it/Downgrade pressures mount on HSBC
Moody's placed HSBC ratings on review for downgrade late last night, citing the bank's profitability issues. We consider it likely that the agency will follow through with a downgrade. We would not rule out a possibility of Fitch following suit. We retain our cautious view on HSBC due to these profitability issues, while we consider its capital position as strong. In our view the bank's non-callable senior paper trades at tight levels and is especially vulnerable to a widening in case of a rati...
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank on it/HSBC's 4Q20; we remain cautious going into the final MREL b...
The uncertain operating environment took its toll on HSBC Holdings' earnings in 4Q20 with sluggish revenue trends resulting in poor profitability metrics. Credit losses remained elevated and Stage 3 loans edged up. HSBC retains its strong capital position with a 500bp headroom to its CET1 requirement, but it plans to drive down the CET1 ratio in the medium term. 2021 will be the last MREL build-up year with US$15bn in HoldCo senior supply on the cards. We consider HSBC's underlying performance a...
- Alyssa Gammoudy
- Hendrik Wiersma
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/CSPP and PEPP, Banco Santander, HSBC, BAWA...
Strategy Another week of high CSPP net purchases brings monthly total to over €4.6bn Financials Banco Santander: The worst is behind us? HSBC 3Q20: Revenue pressures intensify, strong capital for now BAWAG: Risk costs still the centre of attention in 3Q20 Consumers Nestlé: New factory in Ohio (US) planned Diageo: Acquires Chase distillery Utilities BP: despite a better third quarter, 9M20 financial results remain weak
- Alyssa Gammoudy
- Hendrik Wiersma
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/UK banks, HSBC, RBS, Nordic banks, Pernod ...
Financials: UK banks scrap dividends and share repurchases this year. HSBC's performance remained resilient in 1Q20, but expected loan losses to increase. RBS cancels its dividends confirming the decision to have no impact on AT1 coupon payments
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
HSBC vs Standard Chartered/Covid-19 just one of the challenges ahead
HSBC and Standard Chartered reported relatively strong earnings for 2019, but the outlook for 2020 remains challenging with lower rates, a softening economic outlook and the spreading of Covid-19 representing headwinds for credit metrics. Of the two we consider HSBC to be better positioned to absorb softening in its metrics with its solid capital buffers and capital generation capacity. We would prefer HoldCo senior debt over capital products, which are more vulnerable to widening in the current...
- Jean-Christophe Dourret
- Jean-Christophe Dourret
- Hendrik Wiersma
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Job Veenendaal
- Nadège Tillier
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Casino announces disposal programme
Casino (COFP) last night announced an asset disposal programme with an estimated size of €1.5bn, including real estate assets. Casino noted that its directly owned real estate portfolio was valued at €3.9bn at as of 31 December 2017. Half of the disposals are expected to be completed in 2018 with the remainder scheduled for 2019. The new programme will come on top of the ongoing sale of Via Varejo. The disposals are aimed at accelerating debt reduction in France and continuing the business m...
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