reports
- Albert Ploegh
- CEFA
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Hans D’Haese
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reginald Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Tijs Hollestelle
Benelux thematic equity research/Covid-19 scenario analysis
The ING Benelux equity research team has performed a Covid-19 scenario analysis in order to provide a reference point for investors and to test if stocks: (a) have been relatively oversold in comparison to their earnings risk; (b) still provide downside risk; and/or have balance issues in a Covid-19 scenario; and (c) could bounce sharply if a vaccine is found; or (d) benefit relatively from the crisis. Our analysis results in lists of stocks that we consider: (1) low earnings risk, with attracti...
DSM KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
ENX EURONEXT NV
NVJP UMICORE
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
APAML APERAM SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
AKU1 AKZO NOBEL N.V.
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EURN EURONAV NV
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
BEFB BEFIMMO SA
AGN AEGON NV
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
A14V70 FLOW TRADERS NV
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
FAGR FAGRON SA
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
BAR BARCO NV
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM SA
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
RAND RANDSTAD NV
A2JH5S UNIBAIL-RODAMCO SE
EXM EXMAR N.V.
TESB TESSENDERLO GROUP N.V.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BOKA KONINKLIJKE BOSKALIS WESTMINSTER N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV
ACOMO AMSTERDAM COMMODITIES N.V.
REN RELX NV
COFB COFINIMMO SA
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
CFEB COMPAGNIE D'ENTREPRISES CFE SA
REC RECTICEL SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
DECB DECEUNINCK S.A.
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
SIP SIPEF GROUP
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
SIOE SIOEN INDUSTRIES N.V.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
GIMB GIMV NV
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
NIUWF NSI NV
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
AGFB AGFA-GEVAERT NV
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
ACCEL ACCELL GROUP N.V.
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
DWNI DEUTSCHE WOHNEN SE
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
KENDR KENDRION NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
BPOST BPOST SA
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
ADJ ADLER GROUP SA
MITRA N.V. MITHRA PHARMACEUTICALS S.A.
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
BBED BETER BED HOLDING N.V.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
INX IMCD N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
GVNV GRANDVISION NV
CRES COIMA RES S.P.A.
RDSB ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC CLASS B
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
KVW KONINKLIJKE VOLKERWESSELS N.V.
AVTX AVANTIUM NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
BALTA BALTA GROUP
NIBC NIBC HOLDING N.V.
BSGR B&S GROUP S.A.
AC8 AUSCANN GROUP HOLDINGS
MTL ARCELORMITTAL
3NY1 NYRSTAR
VONOVIA SE
FNG FNG NV
53812 AGEAS N.V.
DWS0D2 DWS AKTIEN SCHWEIZ
ARM ARIMA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
AL8 ALDERAN RESOURCES
MARELE INVERSIONES S.A.
Benelux Morning Notes
Befimmo: Sells asset for €93m, ticking another box. Euronav: Cautious 2Q19 outlook, longer-term outlook good. FNG: Excellent FY18 performance. Kinepolis: New cinemas in Canada. Nyrstar: Extension of lock-up deadline. Orange Belgium: Buys IT services group BKM for €52m. Sif Group: Preview - Borssele 3&4 complete. Xior Student Housing: Passing the test
Nyrstar : Thank you Belgian law
Nyrstar announced last Monday that it has entered into a lock-up agreement with representatives of its key financial creditor groups which sets out the terms for the recapitalisation of the group and restructuring of its debt. - The recapitalisation includes a sale by the company of the « Operating Group » at fair market value pre-restructuring to a newly incorporated English subsidiary of the company (“NewCoâ€) and one or more schemes of arrangement under the UK Companies Act 2006....
Nyrstar : Thank you Belgian law
Nyrstar announced last Monday that it has entered into a lock-up agreement with representatives of its key financial creditor groups which sets out the terms for the recapitalisation of the group and restructuring of its debt. - The recapitalisation includes a sale by the company of the « Operating Group » at fair market value pre-restructuring to a newly incorporated English subsidiary of the company (“NewCoâ€) and one or more schemes of arrangement under the UK Companies Act 2006....
Benelux Morning Notes
Belgium: Accelerated Bookbuild for BE-REITs. Flow Traders: 1Q19 trading update – US saw improved trading conditions. Nyrstar: Capital review results in near-total dilution. Proximus: Trade unions present counter proposals to restructuring plan. Staffing Sector: Hays' 3QFY19 trading update. Vopak: Underlying better but many moving parts
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: Sale of HPA leads to capital gain of €105m. AMG, Solvay: Limited impact from 737 MAX issues. Econocom: Final results confirm management intention to refocus, increase FCF. GBL: Decrease in NAV but growing dividends and guidance reiterated. Nyrstar: ‘Capital review will lead to very substantial dilution'. Wessanen: PAI in the sky
Benelux Morning Notes
ADO Properties: Mystery buyer revealed at ADO Group. Aedifica: Confirms closing of UK purchase. BinckBank: Investor uncertainty causes (further) delay in strategic transformation. D'Ieteren: Febiac January car registration figures. Euronav: CEO steps down. Nyrstar: More drama. Staffing sector: US January Temp data stable; jobs report positive
- Stijn Demeester
Nyrstar/Dilutive action looks unavoidable/SELL(previously Hold)
Nyrstar's poor 3Q18 results have resulted in a rapid deterioration of confidence in its solvency and refinancing capabilities. Following this turn of events, Nyrstar has started a capital review to address its high leverage. We cut our TP to €0.40, pricing in a potential dilutive debt/equity swap, and change our recommendation from Hold to SELL, driven by the significant refinancing risk, low visibility on the outcome of the capital review, and high probability of dilution.
Benelux Morning Notes
B&S Group: Completes FragranceNet.com deal D'Ieteren: Belron to pay €400m dividend, very strong EBITDA and FCF momentum Euronav: Benefit from higher prices underway GrandVision: 3Q18 preview - back to business Heijmans: 3Q18 preview - Wintrack II project downside risk? Nyrstar: 3Q18 worse than expected Telenet: 3Q18 preview
Nyrstar : Trafigura: “Should I stay or should I go?â€
Following the profit warning in September and the downgrades of the rating by S&P and Moody’s, the prices of Nyrstar bonds have been in free fall. The 2019 straight bond is now trading at a cash price of c. 82% (ytm of 37%), while the 2024 straight bond is trading at c. 67% (ytm of 17%). The 2022 CB 2020 put trades at a cash price of 73% (ytp of 27%). - We highlighted in our previous report published in June that the group will not have enough liquidity to cover the repayment of th...
Nyrstar : Trafigura: “Should I stay or should I go?â€
Following the profit warning in September and the downgrades of the rating by S&P and Moody’s, the prices of Nyrstar bonds have been in free fall. The 2019 straight bond is now trading at a cash price of c. 82% (ytm of 37%), while the 2024 straight bond is trading at c. 67% (ytm of 17%). The 2022 CB 2020 put trades at a cash price of 73% (ytp of 27%). - We highlighted in our previous report published in June that the group will not have enough liquidity to cover the repayment of th...
- Stijn Demeester
Nyrstar/Downgrade to Hold, on refinancing risk/HOLD (previously: Buy)
Post Nyrstar's profit alert, we reduce our 2018F-20F EBITDA estimates by 33%, 13% and 11% and cut our target price from €7.5 to €2.8, driven by lower estimates and multiples. While we see a significant EBITDA upswing next year, we believe the current adverse market conditions could prove it difficult for Nyrstar to refinance the €350m bond, due in 2H19. As a result, we believe the company could become dependent on its lenders to provide short-term capital as bridge financing until it shows...
Benelux Morning Notes
Flow Traders: August ETP market volumes GrandVision: Nice to meet you! Montea: capital increase of €41m and facts on Tiel sale-and leaseback deal. Nyrstar: Consensus to come down by 20-25% following profit alert Takeaway.com: Uber reported to be in early talks to buy Deliveroo WDP: Full steam ahead in Luxembourg
Nyrstar : A risk/reward profile that is not attractive enough in our v...
Though Nyrstar’s credit metrics will improve significantly in the next two years, there are still some uncertainties at the moment in our view: the liquidity risk (not enough liquidity to cover the repayment of the EUR 350m straight bond due 2019; a new refinancing operation will therefore be needed), the reaction of S&P with regards to credit metrics that would not meet the criteria (adjusted leverage below 5x) for a B- rating at the end of this year, the execution on Port Pirie...
Nyrstar : A risk/reward profile that is not attractive enough in our v...
Though Nyrstar’s credit metrics will improve significantly in the next two years, there are still some uncertainties at the moment in our view: the liquidity risk (not enough liquidity to cover the repayment of the EUR 350m straight bond due 2019; a new refinancing operation will therefore be needed), the reaction of S&P with regards to credit metrics that would not meet the criteria (adjusted leverage below 5x) for a B- rating at the end of this year, the execution on Port Pirie...
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