We have launched our new website with a revamped research portal – Home | Auctus Advisors. We’d be very interested to receive any feedback you may have. AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: Encouraging drilling results. Decreasing opex – Production to date in October is 950 bbl/d, the same level as reported on 24 September. The MGH-43 well has encountered 41 m of prospective gross sand intervals with good to exc...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production. All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d). Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline. Production in Brazil remains shut-in. GeoPark had highlighted these downside risks in August. This was partially offset by (1) high prod...
• Zephyr has decided to extend the State 36-2R well in the Paradox basin by drilling a 5,500 ft lateral on the well. • We are not surprised by this decision given that the acid job performed on the existing 130 ft interval was very successful with peak test production of >2,100 boe/d. • Zephyr believes that the ultimate recovery of the extended well could reach 2 mmboe, which is well above what would have been recovered from the 130 ft interval. • The 5,500 ft lateral is expected to cost ~US$7 ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Another horizontal well with high flow rate – The fourth horizontal well at Carrizales Notre (CNB HZ-5) has been put on production at a gross oil rate of 2.7 mbbl/d (1.35 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 11%. This flow rate compares favourably with CNB HZ-4 that was put on production at a gross oil rate of >2.5 mbbl/d (8% water cut). Overall gross oil production fro...
• • 1H24 sales volumes in the Williston were 1,239 boe/d. • The FY24 production guidance for the Williston is unchanged at 1.1-1.3 mboe/d. This excludes >100 boe/d of natural gas liquids. • While the cash position at the end of June 2024 was ~US$1.1 mm, the receivables were US$11.5 mm (with payables of only US$7.6 mm). The overall cash plus receivables minus payables of ~US$5 mm is well above our expectations of US$0.2 mm. This reflects the expected imminent payments of US$3.9 mm (US$3 mm from t...
6th September 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: None What’s baking in the oven? Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps If you would like to unsubscribe, please email with “unsubscribe me”. Hybridan Chefs Banquet Buffet*** Camellia 4250p £117.4m (CAM.L) The UK based hold...
• Following a successful acidization job, Well State 36-2R has been tested at peak rates of >2,100 boe/d, including up to 510 bbl/d of condensate/light oil and almost no water. This excludes potential natural gas liquids production that would result in an even higher rate. • This flow rate compares very positively with the peak rate of 1,350 boe/d achieved during the first test (announced in July). The pressure response during the second test is also much better than during the previous test. T...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha...
• 2Q24 production in the Williston Basin was 1,226 boe/d. This excludes natural gas liquids (historically 150-200 bbl/d). This represents an increase of 7% compared to 1Q24 but 2Q24 production from the six wells Slawson wells continues to be partially impacted by gas export infrastructure constraints. • The FY24 production guidance for the Williston Basin has been set at 1.1-1.3 mboe/d excluding natural gas liquids. Including natural gas liquids, we estimate that this would equate to 1.25-1.5 mb...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Diversified and high impact newsflow over the balance of 2024 – ADX has confirmed a very busy programme of activity from September. The overall unrisked value of the programme is ~A$1.70 per share, which represents 17x the current share price. In early September, ADX will drill the Anshof-2A side track. The well is expected to intersect thick Eocene reservoirs similar to that encountere...
• The State 36-2R LNW-CC well has been tested at peak production rates of 1,350 boe/d with the well still choked and production constrained. • Initial reservoir pressure was ~8,600 psi, which is very high. • The condensate yield of 180 bbl/mmcf is much higher than at well State 16-2LN-CC and higher than expected, which is a positive surprise. This suggests that the well is producing slightly more condensate than gas. We only expected a condensate yield of 50 bbl/mmcf. With 58 deg API for the co...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now be...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and...
• The FY23 operating cashflow after interests of ~US$9 mm was above our forecasts (US$7 mm) due to change of working capital. We expected a negative change of working capital given (1) Zephyr had to make advance payments for the remedial of the State 36-2R well ahead of being reimbursed by the insurance and (2) the fact that the proceeds of the production for the Slawson wells were not received until part way through 1H24. • Zephyr’s revolving credit facility (RCF) has been redetermined with an ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN) C: target price of £0.50 per share: High impact well offshore Morocco on track to spud in August – The FY23 financials were in line with our forecasts. The high impact Anchois East well is expected to spud in August. A drilling success could increase the size of Anchois to over 1 tcf (300 bcf net to Chariot). Our overall unrisked NAV for Anchois, including Anchois East Footwall and Anchois East North Flank, is £0.42 p...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C: target price of C$0.35 per share: Re-iterating production guidance – 1Q24 production was 802 bbl/d with average realized price of US$82/bbl. This is in line with our expectations. Operating netbacks for the period stood at C$2.2 mm, also in line with our expectations. Operating cashflow before changes in working capital was (C$0.37 mm). With a large proportion of opex being fixed, growing production is very...
3rd June 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: The shares of Zegona Communications (ZEG.L) have been readmitted for trading on the Standard Segment of the Main Market, following the reverse takeover of 100% of Vodafone Spain for EUR5bn. Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial...
• 1Q24 production (excluding NGL) in the Williston was 1,151 boe/d. This is 140 boe/d above our expectations and ~100 boe/d above 4Q23 production. • Production in March (excluding NGL) had increased to 1,212 boe/d. This does not represent the full production capacity as the Slawson wells were partially curtailed due to lingering infrastructure constraints. We forecast 1,320 boe/d in 2Q24. • The State 36-2R well has reached 10,084 feet depth and the casing string has been cemented in place. The ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24 production of 2,730 boe/d was close to our expectations. Arrow’s cash position of US$11.6 mm was also in line. The first water disposal well at RCE is being brought into production and the conversion of the CN-4 well is currently waiting regulatory approval. These two disposal wells are very importa...
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