Disappointing H1 profitability

Whereas Richemont's H1 sales were almost in line with market expectations, EBIT was much lower, both for the Jewellery Maisons and Specialist Watchmakers divisions. Following H1 results, we cut our FY25 and FY26 estimates by 6%. We have adjusted our PT from CHF150 to CHF140. Buy reiterated

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

Richemont to face margin pressure as watch sales decline in H1 2025

Ahead of H1 results (end-September) due out on 8th November, we lower our Richemont FY25 earnings by 6% to reflect i/ further deterioration in Chinese consumer confidence, and ii/ lower demand for Luxury Watches from Asia which is iii/ pressuring margins in the Specialist Watchmakers division. We s

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure

We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure

Richemont FY24 results: jewellery continues to shine

Richemont FY24 results were broadly in line with expectations but remained solid nonetheless given good sales growth at Cartier & VCA despite a tough comparison basis, and a healthy performance in Europe and the Americas. We continue to favour Richemont as growth prospects in jewellery remain p

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #25

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on resilient US activity from the perspective of a healthy Logistics Mana

Welcome Q3 sales surprise confirms our confidence in the group's outlo...

Richemont's 8% Q3 sales increase was slightly above market expectations and reassured investors after last week's profit warning from Burberry. Momentum remained healthy with the European cluster and accelerated with US clientele over the period, while the double-digit exit rate was another positiv

Richemont H1 results prompt 5% cut to our earnings estimates

We lower our FY24 and FY25 estimates by 5% to reflect i/ the weaker than expected H1 2024 performance (mainly at the EBIT level), and ii/ lower growth prospects for FY24. Nevertheless, we expect Richemont's Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) to continue to gain market share and

Luxury Goods: normalising demand to limit upside in H2

Where do we stand after H1?Since the start of the year, we have been positive on the European Luxury Goods sector on expectations that China's reopening would bolster Luxury Goods sales throughout 2023. Q2 sales grew 17% on average. As expected, Hermès (+27%), Moncler (+26%) and Tod's Group (+24%)

Luxury Goods: VICs keep splashing out

Despite questions raised by investors on China's reopening, and US market normalization, we still expect strong growth in Q2 2023e (+15% y/y FX-n) for our Luxury goods coverage. Beyond Q2, we remain strongly convinced by the growth potential of the China luxury market especially for the most exclus

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Casino, Ceconomy, Richemont

Richemont benefiting from rising demand for jewellery

We lift our FY24 and FY25 estimates by 11% to reflect i/ the strong FY23 performance, and ii/ higher growth prospects for FY24 with 1) a gradual recovery in luxury spending by Chinese clientele as they travel outside of Asia, and 2) the superior brand desirability of Richemont's Jewellery Maisons (

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Richemont, Mister Spex, Eyeswear