Suspension of Coverage

From 2nd of June we are suspending coverage of companies below due to a reallocation of resources. Our prior estimates should no longer be used as an indicator for the company moving forward.ADIDASBEIERSDORFCARREFOURDELIVERY HEROESSILORLUXOTTICAHELLOFRESHHermès InternationalHUGO BOSSINTERPARFUMSJUS

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #70

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the initial impact of tariffs on the US consumer and economy. Happy readi

Richemont very resilient again

Richemont enjoyed a fairly strong Q4 on the back of a 7% sales increase driven by Jewellery Maisons (+8%), highlighting that very exclusive brands such as Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels outperformed the luxury market (as was the case for Hermès). H2 EBIT margin remained virtually unchanged. We

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign

Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...

After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #54

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how investors are reacting vis-a-vis the Fed pause in rate cuts. Happy re

Richemont: Q3 well above expectations

Richemont Q3 sales grew 10%, significantly above market expectations (+1%) and the Q2 performance (-1%). All regions achieved a better trend in Q3 than in Q2, especially North America. We lift our earnings by 5%. Combined with our DCF rollover, this implies a PT at CHF150 vs CHF138 previously. Buy

Richemont: FY EBIT marginally trimmed due to FX

Richemont will release its Q3 sales on January 16th and we expect a slight acceleration vs Q2. Nevertheless, due to FX and gold price, we marginally cut our FY EBIT. Buy reiterated with CHF138 PT (CHF140 previously).

Disappointing H1 profitability

Whereas Richemont's H1 sales were almost in line with market expectations, EBIT was much lower, both for the Jewellery Maisons and Specialist Watchmakers divisions. Following H1 results, we cut our FY25 and FY26 estimates by 6%. We have adjusted our PT from CHF150 to CHF140. Buy reiterated

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

Richemont to face margin pressure as watch sales decline in H1 2025

Ahead of H1 results (end-September) due out on 8th November, we lower our Richemont FY25 earnings by 6% to reflect i/ further deterioration in Chinese consumer confidence, and ii/ lower demand for Luxury Watches from Asia which is iii/ pressuring margins in the Specialist Watchmakers division. We s

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure

We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure

Richemont FY24 results: jewellery continues to shine

Richemont FY24 results were broadly in line with expectations but remained solid nonetheless given good sales growth at Cartier & VCA despite a tough comparison basis, and a healthy performance in Europe and the Americas. We continue to favour Richemont as growth prospects in jewellery remain p

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #25

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on resilient US activity from the perspective of a healthy Logistics Mana

Welcome Q3 sales surprise confirms our confidence in the group's outlo...

Richemont's 8% Q3 sales increase was slightly above market expectations and reassured investors after last week's profit warning from Burberry. Momentum remained healthy with the European cluster and accelerated with US clientele over the period, while the double-digit exit rate was another positiv

Richemont H1 results prompt 5% cut to our earnings estimates

We lower our FY24 and FY25 estimates by 5% to reflect i/ the weaker than expected H1 2024 performance (mainly at the EBIT level), and ii/ lower growth prospects for FY24. Nevertheless, we expect Richemont's Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) to continue to gain market share and

Luxury Goods: normalising demand to limit upside in H2

Where do we stand after H1?Since the start of the year, we have been positive on the European Luxury Goods sector on expectations that China's reopening would bolster Luxury Goods sales throughout 2023. Q2 sales grew 17% on average. As expected, Hermès (+27%), Moncler (+26%) and Tod's Group (+24%)

Luxury Goods: VICs keep splashing out

Despite questions raised by investors on China's reopening, and US market normalization, we still expect strong growth in Q2 2023e (+15% y/y FX-n) for our Luxury goods coverage. Beyond Q2, we remain strongly convinced by the growth potential of the China luxury market especially for the most exclus

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Casino, Ceconomy, Richemont