Ahold Delhaize is said to have approached Carrefour in late 2024 before walking away in January 2025. The failed discussions are positive for us as a deal would have totally transformed Ahold Delhaize's equity story from "defensive/yield" to a tentative and very risky "growth/recovery" with a likel
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the initial impact of tariffs on the US consumer and economy. Happy readi
Post a strong Q1 print, we have cut our FY25 EBIT and EPS by 2% and 3% respectively, to reflect the reversing USD while a faster European profitability recovery should offset likely US margin erosion fuelled by a dilutive sales mix. PT lifted to EUR39 however, with a lower beta and untouched safe-h
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
Q1 was a soft start to the year with 0.6% LfL excl. Argentina, slightly below expectations mostly driven by France where price elasticity of 2024 price investments remains limited. We expect no material css adjustments and stick to our recent Sell rating. Upcoming court rulings over May-June will b
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the correlation between robust financial markets and healthy US consumer
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