reports
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: no sign of commercial sequential improvement
Post-weak Q1 sales marked by no sequential improvement on easy comps and market share losses, we foresee a delayed recovery in France and cut our FY 2025 sales by 1% and our EBIT & FCF by >40%. Our new EUR2.4 PT reflects a slight return to growth only from 2026 onwards. Beyond management's s
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: "growth businesses" continue to overshadow softening German ...
Post-Q2, we have cut our FY sales and EBIT by 1% and 2% to reflect a softening German environment while still believing in the company's ability to meet its FY 2024/25 and 2025/26 EBIT targets. We believe the back-end loaded contribution capacity of "growth businesses" is underestimated by the cons
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: CFO appointed as interim CEO
With CEO Karsten Wildberger stepping down to become a federal minister in Germany, Ceconomy has appointed CFO Kai-Ulrich Deissner as interim CEO. In our view, this is the best option to ensure completion of a well-thought FY 2025/26 strategic plan (still not fully priced-in by the consensus and sha
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: CEO surprise leave, what next?
With the CEO stepping down at short notice to become a federal minister, Ceconomy is entering a period of uncertainty. Far from the management instability and poor execution of the 2018-2021 era, we see the group in much better shape and hope for a smooth short-term interim with the current CFO sti
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: softening trend in Q1
Q1 proved soft with LfL decelerating and turning negative (leap-year headwind, weakening France, competitive Belgian market). No impact on our FY EBIT in line with guidance at this stage, but monitoring French retail data will be key in late Q2-early Q3. Neutral reiterated ahead of CMD on 11th June.
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: another year of sales decline and restructuring in 2...
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as another year of declining sales and restructuring with management rightly focusing on FCF to preserve the company until the French furniture market recovers. We remain below MdM's >EUR100m cumulative FCF target as we remain more cautious regarding a market recovery i
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: beyond soft core 2025 guidance, what to expect from June s...
Post-FY, we have lifted our PT from EUR28 to EUR30 to reflect a MSD to HSD EPS raise (o/w DD Unieuro integration boost partly mitigated by softer core business). We expect the June CMD to focus on FCF generation with services, new businesses and Unieuro synergies fuelling margin recovery. Beyond a
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: EBIT building blocks show 2025/26 target is achievable
Post-good FY 2023/24 results, we have conducted a deep dive into EBIT building blocks to understand how conservative FY 2024/25 guidance is and how realistic the necessary acceleration is to meet the FY 2025/26 target. We end up with EBIT 3% and 18% above css for 2024/25 and 2025/26 and a EUR3.3 PT
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #51
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the new record high reached by online shopping during the Cyber Week 2024.
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #50
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at Deloitte and NRF's predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season, expec
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Officially back to Italy
Fnac Darty now owns 71.5% of Unieuro and has some legal leeway in Italy to force a delisting even with less than 90% of shares. While it is too early to integrate Unieuro into our model, we continue to view this as strategically relevant, while remaining cautious on the execution risks it bears and
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: Delayed sales stabilisation and persistent risks
Post a very weak Q3, we foresee a delayed stabilisation in sales with FY 2025 again (slightly) negatively marked by depressed real estate, a more promotional environment and a very anxious French political/fiscal context. Despite management's strong focus on preserving FCF generation and the remain
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: gross margin-fuelled EBIT guidance upgrade
Post-Q3 marked by disappointing LfL and impressive gross margin expansion fuelled by services and the category mix, we have lifted our FY 2024-26 EBIT by c.2% and expect the consensus to do the same. But the equity story remains polluted by persistent uncertainties concerning the ongoing bid for Un
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #43
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. As we are now entering the crucial holiday shopping season, this week we look at external facto
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!
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