reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Officially back to Italy
Fnac Darty now owns 71.5% of Unieuro and has some legal leeway in Italy to force a delisting even with less than 90% of shares. While it is too early to integrate Unieuro into our model, we continue to view this as strategically relevant, while remaining cautious on the execution risks it bears and
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: Delayed sales stabilisation and persistent risks
Post a very weak Q3, we foresee a delayed stabilisation in sales with FY 2025 again (slightly) negatively marked by depressed real estate, a more promotional environment and a very anxious French political/fiscal context. Despite management's strong focus on preserving FCF generation and the remain
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: gross margin-fuelled EBIT guidance upgrade
Post-Q3 marked by disappointing LfL and impressive gross margin expansion fuelled by services and the category mix, we have lifted our FY 2024-26 EBIT by c.2% and expect the consensus to do the same. But the equity story remains polluted by persistent uncertainties concerning the ongoing bid for Un
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #43
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. As we are now entering the crucial holiday shopping season, this week we look at external facto
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: still executing and delivering
Post another quarter of good execution and EBIT-FCF delivery, we now see Ceconomy meeting the top end of its FY EBIT guidance and have lifted our FY 2024-26 EPS by 4% and our PT to EUR3. Even after yesterday's share price drop, Ceconomy remains our top pick in the offline specialised retail segment
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #34
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at underperformance by European, and especially French, equity indexe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: Clarified EBIT guidance 6-14% above expectations
Ahead of its full Q2 publication on Wednesday, Ceconomy has pre-released its Q2 and clarified its FY EBIT guidance from "clear increase YoY" to EUR290-310m, coming out 6-14% above consensus with Spain and Italy fuelling the performance. Within our specialised retail segment, Ceconomy (Buy) remains
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Q1 LfL decelerating as expected, FY guidance reiterated
The Q1 LfL trend continued to slow in line with estimates while product mix provided a nice 30bp gross margin boost. Even with reiterated FY 2024 EBIT and FCF guidance, uncertainty over the timing of a consumption recovery remains a huge pushback preventing everyone from being more bullish despite
- Clement Genelot
MdM: model update
Post-FY publication, we have fine-tuned our model to better take into account: i) the full FY accounts, ii) some positive one-offs that boosted 2023 EBIT, iii) c.100 store conversions via an affiliation model rather than 75/25% via affiliation/franchise.Our DCF-valuation approach still leads to a E
- Clement Genelot
MdM: Back to basics with a 2024-26 back-end loaded plan
Maisons du Monde's CMD marked a paradigm shift with the growth era now behind us and the urgent need to fix the basics going forward. We can only welcome this new strategy, totally in line with the new CEO's profile, especially with its more asset-light model thanks to massive recourse to affiliati
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #18
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the CCP accelerating policy support. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: EBIT miss, FCF beat and limited downside risk from now on
Following a mixed FY publication (EBIT miss, vague EBIT guidance, FCF beat), we now feel that downside risk is limited with the consensus rebasing at last and cash generation helping to set a floor. Upgrade from Sell to Neutral as the lack of short-term M&A speculation and uncertainties around
- Clement Genelot
Anger in the field: five questions stemming from French farmers' block...
With the French farmers' crisis still unresolved, blockades are set to worsen and refocus on Paris as of today with: 1/ short-term issues concerning Parisian grocery stores above all (mostly affecting the New Casino group and to a lesser extent Carrefour), 2/ longer-term issues as we expect lawmake
- Clement Genelot
MdM: Too many red flags to remain Neutral
Ahead of the FY publication, an accumulating number of red flags (the company has gone surprisingly quiet, weaker year-end consumption trends in furniture, the Red Sea crisis disrupting freight costs and Ikea pressurising the market) have prompted us to cut our rating to Sell with a EUR4 PT vs. EUR
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: FY 23 guidance threatened by poor Christmas sales
Ahead of FY 2023 results due out in late February, we have cut our FY 2023 EBIT by 6% to reflect what we believe was a poor Christmas season. With EBIT expected at EUR168m, we now consider FY guidance as out of reach and also question the consensus' optimism when it comes to FY 2024 as we are 2% be
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