reports
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: another year of sales decline and restructuring in 2...
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as another year of declining sales and restructuring with management rightly focusing on FCF to preserve the company until the French furniture market recovers. We remain below MdM's >EUR100m cumulative FCF target as we remain more cautious regarding a market recovery i
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: beyond soft core 2025 guidance, what to expect from June s...
Post-FY, we have lifted our PT from EUR28 to EUR30 to reflect a MSD to HSD EPS raise (o/w DD Unieuro integration boost partly mitigated by softer core business). We expect the June CMD to focus on FCF generation with services, new businesses and Unieuro synergies fuelling margin recovery. Beyond a
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #53
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: EBIT building blocks show 2025/26 target is achievable
Post-good FY 2023/24 results, we have conducted a deep dive into EBIT building blocks to understand how conservative FY 2024/25 guidance is and how realistic the necessary acceleration is to meet the FY 2025/26 target. We end up with EBIT 3% and 18% above css for 2024/25 and 2025/26 and a EUR3.3 PT
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #51
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the new record high reached by online shopping during the Cyber Week 2024.
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #50
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at Deloitte and NRF's predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season, expec
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Officially back to Italy
Fnac Darty now owns 71.5% of Unieuro and has some legal leeway in Italy to force a delisting even with less than 90% of shares. While it is too early to integrate Unieuro into our model, we continue to view this as strategically relevant, while remaining cautious on the execution risks it bears and
- Clement Genelot
Maisons du Monde: Delayed sales stabilisation and persistent risks
Post a very weak Q3, we foresee a delayed stabilisation in sales with FY 2025 again (slightly) negatively marked by depressed real estate, a more promotional environment and a very anxious French political/fiscal context. Despite management's strong focus on preserving FCF generation and the remain
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: gross margin-fuelled EBIT guidance upgrade
Post-Q3 marked by disappointing LfL and impressive gross margin expansion fuelled by services and the category mix, we have lifted our FY 2024-26 EBIT by c.2% and expect the consensus to do the same. But the equity story remains polluted by persistent uncertainties concerning the ongoing bid for Un
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #43
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. As we are now entering the crucial holiday shopping season, this week we look at external facto
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: still executing and delivering
Post another quarter of good execution and EBIT-FCF delivery, we now see Ceconomy meeting the top end of its FY EBIT guidance and have lifted our FY 2024-26 EPS by 4% and our PT to EUR3. Even after yesterday's share price drop, Ceconomy remains our top pick in the offline specialised retail segment
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #34
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at underperformance by European, and especially French, equity indexe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ceconomy: Clarified EBIT guidance 6-14% above expectations
Ahead of its full Q2 publication on Wednesday, Ceconomy has pre-released its Q2 and clarified its FY EBIT guidance from "clear increase YoY" to EUR290-310m, coming out 6-14% above consensus with Spain and Italy fuelling the performance. Within our specialised retail segment, Ceconomy (Buy) remains
- Clement Genelot
Fnac Darty: Q1 LfL decelerating as expected, FY guidance reiterated
The Q1 LfL trend continued to slow in line with estimates while product mix provided a nice 30bp gross margin boost. Even with reiterated FY 2024 EBIT and FCF guidance, uncertainty over the timing of a consumption recovery remains a huge pushback preventing everyone from being more bullish despite
- Clement Genelot
MdM: model update
Post-FY publication, we have fine-tuned our model to better take into account: i) the full FY accounts, ii) some positive one-offs that boosted 2023 EBIT, iii) c.100 store conversions via an affiliation model rather than 75/25% via affiliation/franchise.Our DCF-valuation approach still leads to a E
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