Against macro uncertainty and a fluid tariff backdrop, the O&E industry has played its defensive role with an average performance of +15% YTD (vs. soft luxury sample at -5% and sportswear at -11%), supported by reassuring Q1 publications, proactive tariff mitigation initiatives and reiterated F
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
The strong improvement in aEBITDA margin in Q1 (+300bps to 24.2%) brought greater credibility to the reiterated margin target of 24% for 2025, considering that the CSSe was still well below that threshold prior to the Q1 publication (BGe: 23.1% / CSSe: 22.8%e). While remaining a bit more prudent th
Final FY24 results unveiled this morning are in line with last month's pre-release. FIE also provides an update on its Q1 performance: sales jumped by 13% (broadly in line with CSSe) whilst aEBITDA beat expectations by 11% following a 28% surge to EUR146m (CSSe: EUR131.5m). This impressive 370bp-im
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
In our last report a month ago ("Trumping tariffs"), we were relatively optimistic as Donald Trump had only added a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and implemented a 30-day pause on tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the situation has darkened since an additional 10% tariff has been
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
The stronger-than-expected margin delivery in FY24 unveiled yesterday has two positive outcomes: 1/ Fielmann USA demonstrated its capacity to improve profitability while maintaining a strong operating performance (+11% LFL) and 2/ it lends greater credibility to its reiterated FY25 aEBITDA margin t
With existing duties relatively low compared to other consumer categories, the potential new tariffs that could be imposed by incoming President Trump are naturally sparking concern across the US optical industry. At this stage, we are optimistic about the sector's ability to navigate tariffs: (i)
According to Vision Monday, FIE yesterday announced unexpected leadership changes at the helm of its US subsidiary, with Lukas Ruecker stepping down "for personal reasons" and replaced by CFO Russ Steinhorst. Hopefully, this surprising CEO change might not call into question the subsidiary's priori
Q3 publications were generally more mixed than previous quarters with many players flagging polarised consumer behaviour even in the traditionally defensive prescription category. Most companies were relatively optimistic about Q4 thanks to easier comparatives and a more favourable category-mix, wh
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
Last Friday, FIE reported weaker-than-expected Q3 numbers, with consolidated sales of EUR604m 4% shy of the CSSe, while EBITDA was significantly below CSSe (EUR124m vs. EUR157m) due to one-off costs and, arguably, an overly-optimistic CSSe margin uplift scenario for FIE's US business. During the ca
Among all the innovative products presented at Monday's Apple Keynote, the AirPods Pro 2 stood out for the new OTC hearing aid capability to be included for users with mild to moderate hearing loss, representing EUR1.4bn people globally. While most hearing aid stocks and, to a lesser extent, Essilo
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!
Yesterday, Fielmann (FIE) and Mister Spex (MRX) both reported their final H1 2024 results which were in line with their respective pre-announced figures. Arguably, Germany remains their largest market with a revenue share of 73% and 75% respectively but the market's focus has differed in recent mon
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we react to slower US inflation in June, further opening the door to a September rat
Beyond good preliminary H1 2024 numbers, FIE delivered an ambitious EBITDA target of 24% for 2025 (CSSe: 21.5%), with strong margin expansion for both its European and US operations embedded in the target. While this upbeat FY25 target must now be followed by strong execution evidence, it should gr
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o
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