Maisons du Monde: Delayed sales stabilisation and persistent risks

Post a very weak Q3, we foresee a delayed stabilisation in sales with FY 2025 again (slightly) negatively marked by depressed real estate, a more promotional environment and a very anxious French political/fiscal context. Despite management's strong focus on preserving FCF generation and the remain

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!

MdM: model update

Post-FY publication, we have fine-tuned our model to better take into account: i) the full FY accounts, ii) some positive one-offs that boosted 2023 EBIT, iii) c.100 store conversions via an affiliation model rather than 75/25% via affiliation/franchise.Our DCF-valuation approach still leads to a E

MdM: Back to basics with a 2024-26 back-end loaded plan

Maisons du Monde's CMD marked a paradigm shift with the growth era now behind us and the urgent need to fix the basics going forward. We can only welcome this new strategy, totally in line with the new CEO's profile, especially with its more asset-light model thanks to massive recourse to affiliati

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!

Anger in the field: five questions stemming from French farmers' block...

With the French farmers' crisis still unresolved, blockades are set to worsen and refocus on Paris as of today with: 1/ short-term issues concerning Parisian grocery stores above all (mostly affecting the New Casino group and to a lesser extent Carrefour), 2/ longer-term issues as we expect lawmake

MdM: Too many red flags to remain Neutral

Ahead of the FY publication, an accumulating number of red flags (the company has gone surprisingly quiet, weaker year-end consumption trends in furniture, the Red Sea crisis disrupting freight costs and Ikea pressurising the market) have prompted us to cut our rating to Sell with a EUR4 PT vs. EUR

Red Sea tensions: looming risk of a new wave of inflation

In our first note last month "Will Red Sea tensions disrupt our groups' supply chains?" we discussed why the first attacks on commercial shipping routes were unlikely to cause major supply chain disruption for our companies, provided they did not last too long. However, since then, the attacks have

Will Red Sea tensions disrupt supply chain of our groups?

Following several attacks on commercial shipping since mid-November, seven of the largest shipping firms announced they would redirect their container ships from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal and switch to a safer route around Africa. This traffic rerouting implies additional costs and delays when

MdM model update post-profit warning

Following the much-awaited, yet stronger-than-expected, profit warning from MdM, we have cut our FY 2023-25 sales estimates by 3% and our EBIT estimates by 30% with a PT notched down from EUR9 to EUR7. Even after the -52% share price performance YTD, MdM is not that cheap, and we only foresee a pot

Maisons du Monde: Model update

Post-Q1 earnings publication in May and ahead of the Q2 publication on 27th July, we have updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR9 (based on a DCF) and a Sell rating.FY 2023-25 estimates: We have trimmed our FY 2023-25 sales to reflect a slower sequential improvement from Q2 2023 while upgrad

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Claranova, Mr Spex, MdM, Tod's

Temu coming to Europe with value/young customers in sight

With Pinduoduo's subsidiary Temu coming to Europe and likely to be as successful as it was in the US in recent months, it is about to become equally important as Shein, Wish and Aliexpress. Value players in fashion/electronics/decoration with low price points and young customers are at risk, but ou

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Spec. Retail, results

Specialised retail: favour Germany over France and Southern Europe

With food inflation still accelerating across Europe (>15%) and a lengthy disinflation process throughout H2, consumption arbitrage is set to continue and affect discretionary goods retailers. Recent trends suggest that France and Southern Europe are really suffering while Germany is benefiting

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Casino, Maisons du Monde, Tod's

Too early to revisit the Maisons du Monde case

Post-FY publication, we understand that 2023 is set to be another challenging year with no growth and continuous profitability pressures despite reassuring early signs for gross margin. With FY 2023 guidance likely to be blurred and/or low, meaning the new CEO cannot disappoint in his first year in

No FY guidance until May, kitchen-sinking in the making?

MdM has provided no FY 2023 guidance, preferring to wait until May despite having good visibility on key gross margin components and OPEX cost measures. This choice tends to confirm our initial concerns related to the arrival of the new CEO and his potential (and legitimate) aim to dampen market ex

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | adidas, Hugo Boss, MdM, Zalando