Hugo Boss: resilient sales increase and EBIT beat in Q3

This morning Hugo Boss has reported in-line Q3 sales of EUR1,029m incl. +1% FX-n sales growth thanks to limited exposure to China (c.6% of sales) and a resilient performance in EMEA. Q3 EBIT came in at EUR95m, or 5% above CSSe of EUR90m as the miss at the GM level was more than offset by tighter op

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

Hugo Boss: reassuring tone on margin protection

Following the huge operating deleverage sustained in Q2, the market was reassured by management's commitment to implement several cost measures aimed at protecting margins, with the first positive results expected as early as H2. As such, we now believe the mid-point of the FY24 EBIT range of EUR35

Hugo Boss: Warning on FY24 outlook and question marks on FY25 targets

Weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 results and a warning on FY24 guidance illustrate two weaknesses in Hugo Boss' investment case: 1/ amid softening luxury demand, affordable and premium price points are always hit the hardest due to reduced spending by aspirational clientele and 2/ "scissor effec

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o

Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure

We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #34

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at underperformance by European, and especially French, equity indexe

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #27

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the Q1 earnings season in the US, which is set to be a good vintag

Hugo Boss: Weak China and month of April spoilt the mood

In our view, the sharp negative market reaction was triggered by subdued trends in China and April trends which were slightly below the Q1 top-line performance (+6% FX-n), on top of another tough comparison base (Q2 2023: +20% FX-n). Whilst FY24 outlook was reiterated, management's relatively cauti

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in

Hugo Boss: macro headwinds prompt cautious FY24 outlook and postponed ...

Beyond the challenging macro environment, we believe two other negative factors have forced Hugo Boss to adopt a more cautious tone compared to other luxury groups recently: 1/ challenging comps as the group's sales soared by 49% over 2021-23, and 2/ the group is more sensitive to the fiercer promo

Hugo Boss: all eyes on margin improvement potential for 2024

Admittedly, yesterday's huge negative market reaction (-9.7%) was harsh compared to the Q4 EBIT miss (6%) but the latter might raise question marks over Hugo Boss' margin trajectory for FY24 in the event of a more harmful impact from promotional activity. Pending the FY23 results release on 7th Mar

Q4 earnings season: we see little downside risk for Hugo Boss

Ahead of its preliminary results and FY2023 results due on 7th March, we expect further double-digit FX-n sales growth in Q4 (+13%e), driven by robust momentum in the US and an easier comparison basis in China. We should see a positive turning point at the GM level (+70bp to 62.1%e) even though the

Model update post Q3 2023 results

Management's tone during the conference call last Thursday was optimistic, supported by a good set of Q3 numbers and healthy trends recorded during the month of October. However, some question marks linger with regard to promotional activity and consumer demand, particularly in Western Europe. Our

Model update post H1 2023 results

Further to strong momentum at Hugo Boss in Q2 and revised FY23 guidance, we have increased our FY23-25 estimates by 6% on average, as well as our PT to EUR78 vs. EUR75 previously.

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | MONC, ZAL, ULVR, ADS, BOSS

All eyes on next month's CMD to assess MT potential

With sales growth of 25% FX-n in Q1, Hugo Boss achieved one of the strongest performance amongst the fastest-growing players within our luxury sample (+13% on avg.). Interestingly, Hugo Boss is not exposed to the fastest-growing categories, i.e. leather goods and hard luxury, and does not operate i

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | ZAL, SFL, CO, ULVR, BOSS, EL

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Hugo Boss, Safilo, Casino