reports
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: reassuring Q1 numbers and FY25 outlook reiterated
Hugo Boss has reported reassuring Q1 2025 results this morning: the FX-n sales decline of 2% was less negative than expected (CSSe: -4%) while the EBIT contraction was also less pronounced than initially feared (-12% to EUR61m vs. CSSe EUR50m) as another GM miss was offset by tight opex discipline.
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...
After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: stronger emphasis on margin improvement this year
The FY25 outlook unveiled yesterday shows greater visibility on the margin improvement trajectory, thanks to further sourcing efficiencies and disciplined cost control. However, sales trends remain more volatile, as evidenced by a MSD decline in the first two months of 2025 following a strong Q4. W
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: Q4 numbers beat and cautious FY25 outlook
Hugo Boss has reported FY24 results this morning: Q4 sales surprised positively with a 4% beat, driven by a strong year-end in both EMEA and the Americas, while EBIT was bang in line with expectations at EUR126m. Unsurprisingly, given the volatile macro environment, the FY25 outlook is quite cautio
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #57
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage: Luxury goods, Cosmetics, Consumer goods and Retail & E-commerce. This week, we look at the Fed's dilemma between its "wait-and-see" stance and mitigating the potential inflationar
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #50
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at Deloitte and NRF's predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season, expec
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: still limited visibility on FY25 outlook and MT targets
After outperforming the luxury sector over recent weeks, the stock was subject to profit taking moves yesterday, unleashed by the group's Q3 GM miss which overshadowed the EBIT beat, and another delay in its MT targets. We cut our FY24-26 estimates by 5% on average and adjust our WACC assumptions t
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: resilient sales increase and EBIT beat in Q3
This morning Hugo Boss has reported in-line Q3 sales of EUR1,029m incl. +1% FX-n sales growth thanks to limited exposure to China (c.6% of sales) and a resilient performance in EMEA. Q3 EBIT came in at EUR95m, or 5% above CSSe of EUR90m as the miss at the GM level was more than offset by tighter op
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term
Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2
As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: reassuring tone on margin protection
Following the huge operating deleverage sustained in Q2, the market was reassured by management's commitment to implement several cost measures aimed at protecting margins, with the first positive results expected as early as H2. As such, we now believe the mid-point of the FY24 EBIT range of EUR35
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: Warning on FY24 outlook and question marks on FY25 targets
Weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 results and a warning on FY24 guidance illustrate two weaknesses in Hugo Boss' investment case: 1/ amid softening luxury demand, affordable and premium price points are always hit the hardest due to reduced spending by aspirational clientele and 2/ "scissor effec
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: H1 profitability under pressure
We turn more cautious on the sector as recent newsflows points to a deterioration of China's macro. H1 should prove to be challenging for the sector with Q2 growth expected to decelerate sequentially from +1% FX-n in Q2 to zero in Q2. With lower topline growth, Luxury groups will be under pressure
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #34
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at underperformance by European, and especially French, equity indexe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #27
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the Q1 earnings season in the US, which is set to be a good vintag
- Cedric Rossi
Hugo Boss: Weak China and month of April spoilt the mood
In our view, the sharp negative market reaction was triggered by subdued trends in China and April trends which were slightly below the Q1 top-line performance (+6% FX-n), on top of another tough comparison base (Q2 2023: +20% FX-n). Whilst FY24 outlook was reiterated, management's relatively cauti
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in
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