Have payments hit bottom yet?

In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditisation risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditisation remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro environment. To answer the initial quest

Have payments hit the bottom yet ? - Worldline

In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditization risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditization remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro. To answer the initial question, we beli

Worldline - not as weak as expected, but too early to jump in

Worldline reported 2.5% organic growth in Q1 2024, weak in absolute terms but better than anticipated by the market and us. We wait for a clear uptick in momentum and the confirmation of an improved profitability to turn positive on the stock; which is arguably far from expensive at 5.1x EV/NTM EBI

Worldline - results and guidance in line

Worldline reported Q4 2023 results this morning, a touch below expectations on revenue but better than expected on profitability and FCF generation. As a reminder, the company had to cut its FY guidance in Q3 2023 to take into account the impact of the slowdown in consumer spending and the terminat

Most bad news priced in

In a sector note we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Worldline. We turn Neutral (from Sell) on the French name as the October profit warning reset expectations to a reasonable level. Our PT mo

Macro headwinds keep blowing

In this paper, we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Nexi and Worldline. We upgrade to Neutral (from Sell) on Worldline, as the October profit warning did reset expectations to a reasonable leve

Miss and cut

Worldline has reported disappointing Q3 2023 revenue missing consensus estimates by 2.5%. Acknowledging the slowdown in the economy, the group has also reduced its FY 2023e guidance to +6-7%, implying a harsh Q4 2023e. We have cut our expectations to the low end of the new guidance range, and slash

No longer paying off

In this paper, we review the investment cases of payment stocks in light of our increasingly bearish stance on the macroeconomic environment and the disruption risk faced by the sector. We have therefore cut our estimates, PT and recommendations for Nexi (Sell, EUR7 PT vs Neutral, EUR11PT) and Worl

Resilient but not immune

As detailed in our sector note, we are turning negative on the European payments industry. We argue that the challenging macroeconomic environment and the commoditisation risk in the sector offer more downside risk than upside potential. We are changing our recommendation on Worldline from Buy to N

FIS' merchant business takeover reviving the speculative interests ?

As GTCR nears a deal with FIS to take over its payment business, the speculations around M&A heat up in the payment sector. We therefore review the potential exit options for Worldline and Nexi shareholders. While Worldline could appeal to financial investors willing to turnaround operations an

Bryan, Garnier & Co | Worldline, Temenos, Dassault Systèmes, Orange, S...

Q1 revenue a touch above expectations, outlook confirmed

This morning's resilient Q1 2023 revenue figures of +9.2% Y/Y slightly exceed consensus expectations by 1.2%. The reiterated guidance pointing to +8-10% LFL revenue growth in FY 2023e, at par with market estimates, seems largely achievable. BUY, €61.00 PT confirmed.

Bryan, Garnier & Co Technology Daily | Orange, ESI, Worldline, Semis

Worldline and Crédit Agricole join forces in France

Worldline has announced an agreement with Crédit Agricole to form a joint company in merchant services, thereby confirming recent press rumours. We expect the deal to prove accretive on the income statement while leaving no stains on the balance sheet.

Bryan, Garnier & Co Technology Daily | IFX, NHOA, DTE, WLN, SEMIS