reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
Suspension of Coverage
From 2nd of June we are suspending coverage of companies below due to a reallocation of resources. Our prior estimates should no longer be used as an indicator for the company moving forward.ADIDASBEIERSDORFCARREFOURDELIVERY HEROESSILORLUXOTTICAHELLOFRESHHermès InternationalHUGO BOSSINTERPARFUMSJUS
ADS ADIDAS AG
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
ITP INTERPARFUMS
OR L'OREAL SA
KER KERING SA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
SFL SAFILO GROUP S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
SFER SALVATORE FERRAGAMO S.P.A.
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
CFR RICHEMONT
BEI BEIERSDORF
BOSS HUGO BOSS
DHER DELIVERY HERO
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
EF ESSILORLUXOTTICA
UHR THE SWATCH GROUP
MC LVMH
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #70
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the initial impact of tariffs on the US consumer and economy. Happy readi
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: persistent concerns and no short-term catalyst in sight
Post-Q1, we remain impressed by the MENA performance and sceptical about the recovery in Korea. Neutral reiterated with a EUR36 PT despite >30% upside as we see no short-term catalyst to engage a rerating from 8.3x EV/EBITDA. Mounting legal issues in Spain & Italy, an uncertain recovery in K
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #66
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the correlation between robust financial markets and healthy US consumer
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Southeast Asia remains an issue
The recent Momentum Works' annual Asian update showed a continuous market share loss across Southeast Asia for Delivery Hero, reviving debate about this underperforming and loss-making unit. We continue to believe that a sale at any price or even a pure exit would eventually be positive for Deliver
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: more investments and no improvement in FCF conversion o...
The Q4 trading update proved to be reassuring for the Middle-East whereas Korea's recovery remains hypothetical. We have notched down our FY 2025 EBITDA again on the back of disappointing FY guidance, marked by additional investments in Korea and a slower development of adtech. We remain on the sid
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: new ratings hierarchy for a new year
As we enter 2025, we are looking for self-help levers capable of further boosting food delivery platforms' growth/FCF profiles while putting consolidation options aside. After a very efficient year in 2024 for our ratings hierarchy, we are now adjusting it by double-upgrading Just Eat Takeaway to B
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: understanding the cash implications behind the Spanish ...
With Delivery Hero about to lose in the lower courts in Spain, it has decided to shift its rider model to an employment model in the country. This should cut FY EBITDA by EUR100m causing a 9% css cut with gradual payments to be made to cope with contingencies (EUR200m/year over three years in our v
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO spicing up investment case
The Talabat sub-IPO brings EUR1.9bn, de-levers the balance sheet to below 2x net debt/EBITDA and has already fuelled a 65% share price recovery. But a closer look at the SOTP shows that other businesses beyond Talabat are valued at just 6x EV/EBITDA (i.e.like a food retailer) and 9x for Korea (slig
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: model update
Post-Q3 trading update, we have again updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR46 (based on a mix of DCF and SOTP) and a Buy rating.FY 2025 estimates adjustment: We have left our FY 2024 estimates unchanged but cut our FY 2025 EBITDA by c.EUR60m or c.5% to reflect more investments in Korea (rev
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: all eyes on asset value maximisation ahead of Korea rel...
Post-Q3, we understand that the EBITDA warning was driven by a delayed and more harmful reshuffling of the commercial offer and subscription programme in Korea, a more temporary than structural element with 2025 set to return to growth and market share gains in the region. We maintain our PT at EUR
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO to crystallise massive value and deleverage...
The recent CMD for Talabat ahead of the IPO demonstrated its superior profile with a prospective valuation of c.16x EV/EBITDA in our view, potentially raising c.EUR1.7bn for Delivery Hero and further deleveraging its balance sheet to such low levels that liquidity concerns would be permanently remo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: selling Taiwan plus surprise capital raise reserved to ...
Delivery Hero has surprisingly agreed to sell Taiwan to Uber for USD1,250m / EUR1,160m (o/w EUR885m for Taiwan at 0.6x EV/GMV and EUR279m via a reserved capital increase at a 30% premium). With both parties in tough negotiations for months, we see this as a compromise to let Delivery Hero cash-in t
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