reports
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: model update
Post-Q3 trading update, we have again updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR46 (based on a mix of DCF and SOTP) and a Buy rating.FY 2025 estimates adjustment: We have left our FY 2024 estimates unchanged but cut our FY 2025 EBITDA by c.EUR60m or c.5% to reflect more investments in Korea (rev
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: all eyes on asset value maximisation ahead of Korea rel...
Post-Q3, we understand that the EBITDA warning was driven by a delayed and more harmful reshuffling of the commercial offer and subscription programme in Korea, a more temporary than structural element with 2025 set to return to growth and market share gains in the region. We maintain our PT at EUR
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO to crystallise massive value and deleverage...
The recent CMD for Talabat ahead of the IPO demonstrated its superior profile with a prospective valuation of c.16x EV/EBITDA in our view, potentially raising c.EUR1.7bn for Delivery Hero and further deleveraging its balance sheet to such low levels that liquidity concerns would be permanently remo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: selling Taiwan plus surprise capital raise reserved to ...
Delivery Hero has surprisingly agreed to sell Taiwan to Uber for USD1,250m / EUR1,160m (o/w EUR885m for Taiwan at 0.6x EV/GMV and EUR279m via a reserved capital increase at a 30% premium). With both parties in tough negotiations for months, we see this as a compromise to let Delivery Hero cash-in t
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: still delivering despite competition-driven reinvestmen...
In Q1, Delivery Hero demonstrated its ability to outperform peers and generate an appealing growth/profitability/FCF profile, which should continue to fuel the ongoing rerating (i.e. 0.9x EV/Sales 2025e vs. 0.7-0.8x as of Feb.) even though Meituan's in-road into Saudi Arabia has to be closely monit
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Q1 sales beat, FY sales guidance upgrade.
Q1 proved to be strong, beating consensus figures, with re-accelerating GMV and sales growth. The upgrade to FY 2024 sales guidance (with rising debate over the prospect of an EBITDA upgrade as well this year) strengthens our view that Delivery Hero deserves to rerate further beyond 0.9x EV/Sales g
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles
Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #17
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the markets' harsh reaction to the January CPI (US), which from an opt
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: appealing growth/profitability profile and easing liqui...
Post-FY publication, we see FY 2024 guidance as further proof of Delivery Hero's ability to adopt an appealing growth/profitability profile that would assuredly deserve a rerating from 0.8x EV/Sales towards 2-3x. Liquidity concerns have long restrained this rerating, but even on very cautious assum
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #15
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage from Luxury & Consumer goods, to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the latest economic data on US consumers as we think they could pr
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: understanding the Southeast Asian problem
Recent Momentum Works 2023 market share data reveal the urgency for Delivery Hero to sell off its Southeast Asia business. With EUR2.6bn GMV/EUR360m sales/EUR82m EBITDA losses on sale for some time, we expect no material proceeds (EUR200-400m) and see Meituan as a more credible buyer than Grab. App
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Peso hurting Q4, appealing FY 24 prospects
Ahead of the Q4 trading update on 14th February, we have cut our FY 2023 sales estimate by 2% notably because of the Peso devaluation while lifting our FY 2023 EBITDA by 9% with a faster loss reduction across dark stores and Glovo geographies. In a still unanswered valuation debate within the food
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open
With the sales warning/EBITDA guidance upgrade divergence persisting in Q3, the "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open in the food delivery sector. We see a two-scenario path when comparing the sector with adjacent food retail and restaurants, pointing to a 0.5-3x EV/Sales range. While we
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