reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Southeast Asia remains an issue
The recent Momentum Works' annual Asian update showed a continuous market share loss across Southeast Asia for Delivery Hero, reviving debate about this underperforming and loss-making unit. We continue to believe that a sale at any price or even a pure exit would eventually be positive for Deliver
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: more investments and no improvement in FCF conversion o...
The Q4 trading update proved to be reassuring for the Middle-East whereas Korea's recovery remains hypothetical. We have notched down our FY 2025 EBITDA again on the back of disappointing FY guidance, marked by additional investments in Korea and a slower development of adtech. We remain on the sid
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: new ratings hierarchy for a new year
As we enter 2025, we are looking for self-help levers capable of further boosting food delivery platforms' growth/FCF profiles while putting consolidation options aside. After a very efficient year in 2024 for our ratings hierarchy, we are now adjusting it by double-upgrading Just Eat Takeaway to B
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: understanding the cash implications behind the Spanish ...
With Delivery Hero about to lose in the lower courts in Spain, it has decided to shift its rider model to an employment model in the country. This should cut FY EBITDA by EUR100m causing a 9% css cut with gradual payments to be made to cope with contingencies (EUR200m/year over three years in our v
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO spicing up investment case
The Talabat sub-IPO brings EUR1.9bn, de-levers the balance sheet to below 2x net debt/EBITDA and has already fuelled a 65% share price recovery. But a closer look at the SOTP shows that other businesses beyond Talabat are valued at just 6x EV/EBITDA (i.e.like a food retailer) and 9x for Korea (slig
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: model update
Post-Q3 trading update, we have again updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR46 (based on a mix of DCF and SOTP) and a Buy rating.FY 2025 estimates adjustment: We have left our FY 2024 estimates unchanged but cut our FY 2025 EBITDA by c.EUR60m or c.5% to reflect more investments in Korea (rev
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: all eyes on asset value maximisation ahead of Korea rel...
Post-Q3, we understand that the EBITDA warning was driven by a delayed and more harmful reshuffling of the commercial offer and subscription programme in Korea, a more temporary than structural element with 2025 set to return to growth and market share gains in the region. We maintain our PT at EUR
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Talabat IPO to crystallise massive value and deleverage...
The recent CMD for Talabat ahead of the IPO demonstrated its superior profile with a prospective valuation of c.16x EV/EBITDA in our view, potentially raising c.EUR1.7bn for Delivery Hero and further deleveraging its balance sheet to such low levels that liquidity concerns would be permanently remo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: selling Taiwan plus surprise capital raise reserved to ...
Delivery Hero has surprisingly agreed to sell Taiwan to Uber for USD1,250m / EUR1,160m (o/w EUR885m for Taiwan at 0.6x EV/GMV and EUR279m via a reserved capital increase at a 30% premium). With both parties in tough negotiations for months, we see this as a compromise to let Delivery Hero cash-in t
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: still delivering despite competition-driven reinvestmen...
In Q1, Delivery Hero demonstrated its ability to outperform peers and generate an appealing growth/profitability/FCF profile, which should continue to fuel the ongoing rerating (i.e. 0.9x EV/Sales 2025e vs. 0.7-0.8x as of Feb.) even though Meituan's in-road into Saudi Arabia has to be closely monit
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Q1 sales beat, FY sales guidance upgrade.
Q1 proved to be strong, beating consensus figures, with re-accelerating GMV and sales growth. The upgrade to FY 2024 sales guidance (with rising debate over the prospect of an EBITDA upgrade as well this year) strengthens our view that Delivery Hero deserves to rerate further beyond 0.9x EV/Sales g
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles
Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
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