Delivery Hero: selling Taiwan plus surprise capital raise reserved to ...

Delivery Hero has surprisingly agreed to sell Taiwan to Uber for USD1,250m / EUR1,160m (o/w EUR885m for Taiwan at 0.6x EV/GMV and EUR279m via a reserved capital increase at a 30% premium). With both parties in tough negotiations for months, we see this as a compromise to let Delivery Hero cash-in t

Delivery Hero: still delivering despite competition-driven reinvestmen...

In Q1, Delivery Hero demonstrated its ability to outperform peers and generate an appealing growth/profitability/FCF profile, which should continue to fuel the ongoing rerating (i.e. 0.9x EV/Sales 2025e vs. 0.7-0.8x as of Feb.) even though Meituan's in-road into Saudi Arabia has to be closely monit

Delivery Hero: Q1 sales beat, FY sales guidance upgrade.

Q1 proved to be strong, beating consensus figures, with re-accelerating GMV and sales growth. The upgrade to FY 2024 sales guidance (with rising debate over the prospect of an EBITDA upgrade as well this year) strengthens our view that Delivery Hero deserves to rerate further beyond 0.9x EV/Sales g

Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles

Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #17

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the markets' harsh reaction to the January CPI (US), which from an opt

Delivery Hero: appealing growth/profitability profile and easing liqui...

Post-FY publication, we see FY 2024 guidance as further proof of Delivery Hero's ability to adopt an appealing growth/profitability profile that would assuredly deserve a rerating from 0.8x EV/Sales towards 2-3x. Liquidity concerns have long restrained this rerating, but even on very cautious assum

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #15

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage from Luxury & Consumer goods, to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the latest economic data on US consumers as we think they could pr

Delivery Hero: understanding the Southeast Asian problem

Recent Momentum Works 2023 market share data reveal the urgency for Delivery Hero to sell off its Southeast Asia business. With EUR2.6bn GMV/EUR360m sales/EUR82m EBITDA losses on sale for some time, we expect no material proceeds (EUR200-400m) and see Meituan as a more credible buyer than Grab. App

Delivery Hero: Peso hurting Q4, appealing FY 24 prospects

Ahead of the Q4 trading update on 14th February, we have cut our FY 2023 sales estimate by 2% notably because of the Peso devaluation while lifting our FY 2023 EBITDA by 9% with a faster loss reduction across dark stores and Glovo geographies. In a still unanswered valuation debate within the food

Food Delivery: "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open

With the sales warning/EBITDA guidance upgrade divergence persisting in Q3, the "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open in the food delivery sector. We see a two-scenario path when comparing the sector with adjacent food retail and restaurants, pointing to a 0.5-3x EV/Sales range. While we

Right-sizing in Asia would be more than welcome

With Delivery Hero in discussions to sell seven countries in Asia (vs. only two initially expected), the group is at last willing to right-size its business with a more than welcome 10% accretive impact on group EBITDA and a potential EUR1bn in proceeds, paving the way for repayment of a quarter of

Key takeaways from Instacart's upcoming IPO

With Instacart's IPO approaching, we believe that the targeted valuation of 2.8-3x EV/Sales 2023e will first require that concerns surrounding growth prospects, sustainability in the value chain and social regulations are addressed. More interestingly, the targeted valuation fits perfectly with the

Model update pre-Q2 2023

Ahead of the Q2 publication on 9th August, we have cut our estimates by 7% to reflect a faster top line recovery in Korea, Middle-East and LatAm, which seems to be making management more willing to reinvest more "extra EBITDA" into the business. Even though a FY 2023 EBITDA guidance upgrade looks v

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | HFG, DHER, PERP, BIC, AVQ, ULVR

Cautious, but aligned with css FY GMV guidance dragged down by Korea

Alongside an in-line Q1 GMV and reassuring Q1 EBITDA margin very close to breakeven at -0.1%, Delivery Hero finally unveiled FY 2023 top line guidance (i.e. 5-7% GMV c.FX growth vs. consensus slightly above 7%) highlighting a cautious view on Korea's recovery throughout Q2-Q3-Q4 2023. Delivery Hero