EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
We believe that, after the price war-impacted 2024 and the seasonally-challenged 1Q25, Polish grocers should enjoy Easter-supported demand and a leap in the VAT hike in 2Q25E. In our view, the Polish consumer has matured, following the tough experience of the pandemic, and the inflation bubble that followed. With a propensity to consume no longer close to 100%, we see the rollout-led growth as more tangible than pure lfl expansion. Within the high-growth names, we prefer Żabka (initiation with a...
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid 1Q25 results, ahead of the market's expectations; some upside risk for2025E EPS forecasts POSITIVE • CEZ: 1Q25 beat on distribution and sales segments, disposal of Polish assets POSITIVE • Eurocash: 1Q25 – weak, as expected NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 1Q25, with a significant net income beat POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q25 softer than expected; FY25E budget below our forecasts NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line miss, due mainly to asset quality deterior...
HEADLINES: • Optima Bank: a touch of Midas, none of Icarus (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: solid 1Q25 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 1Q25 results – significant miss NEGATIVE • Richter: 1Q25 results in line NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 preliminary EBITDA 16% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 1Q25 highlights; 2025E guidance revised down NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q25 results highlights • Zabka (NOT RATED): ...
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