reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: very comforting French reopening stats. BE Semiconductor Industries: Feedback from Q&A, conference call with CEO. Euronext: Feedback from Q&A with CFO. Euronext: Healthy trading volumes in May. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Press reports of possible interest in GrubHub. NIBC: Offer price set to be reduced to €7.0 per share. Staffing: Positive surprise in US May Temp data and job report show signs of a recovery. Coverage changes
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
SIP SIPEF GROUP
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
DWNI DEUTSCHE WOHNEN SE
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
ADJ ADLER GROUP SA
BBED BETER BED HOLDING N.V.
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
CRES COIMA RES S.P.A.
NIBC NIBC HOLDING N.V.
VONOVIA SE
FNG FNG NV
ARM ARIMA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
- Albert Ploegh
- CEFA
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Hans D’Haese
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reginald Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Tijs Hollestelle
Benelux thematic equity research/Covid-19 scenario analysis
The ING Benelux equity research team has performed a Covid-19 scenario analysis in order to provide a reference point for investors and to test if stocks: (a) have been relatively oversold in comparison to their earnings risk; (b) still provide downside risk; and/or have balance issues in a Covid-19 scenario; and (c) could bounce sharply if a vaccine is found; or (d) benefit relatively from the crisis. Our analysis results in lists of stocks that we consider: (1) low earnings risk, with attracti...
DSM KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
ENX EURONEXT NV
NVJP UMICORE
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
APAML APERAM SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
AKU1 AKZO NOBEL N.V.
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EURN EURONAV NV
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
BEFB BEFIMMO SA
AGN AEGON NV
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
FUR FUGRO NV CERT OF SHS
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
A14V70 FLOW TRADERS NV
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
FAGR FAGRON SA
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
BAR BARCO NV
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM SA
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
RAND RANDSTAD NV
A2JH5S UNIBAIL-RODAMCO SE
EXM EXMAR N.V.
TESB TESSENDERLO GROUP N.V.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
BAMNB KONINKLIJKE BAM GROEP NV
BOKA KONINKLIJKE BOSKALIS WESTMINSTER N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV
ACOMO AMSTERDAM COMMODITIES N.V.
REN RELX NV
COFB COFINIMMO SA
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
CFEB COMPAGNIE D'ENTREPRISES CFE SA
REC RECTICEL SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
DECB DECEUNINCK S.A.
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
SIP SIPEF GROUP
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
SIOE SIOEN INDUSTRIES N.V.
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
GIMB GIMV NV
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
NIUWF NSI NV
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
AGFB AGFA-GEVAERT NV
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
ACCEL ACCELL GROUP N.V.
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
DWNI DEUTSCHE WOHNEN SE
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
KENDR KENDRION NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
BPOST BPOST SA
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
ADJ ADLER GROUP SA
MITRA N.V. MITHRA PHARMACEUTICALS S.A.
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
MELE MELEXIS NV
BBED BETER BED HOLDING N.V.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
INX IMCD N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
GVNV GRANDVISION NV
CRES COIMA RES S.P.A.
RDSB ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC CLASS B
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
KVW KONINKLIJKE VOLKERWESSELS N.V.
AVTX AVANTIUM NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
BALTA BALTA GROUP
NIBC NIBC HOLDING N.V.
BSGR B&S GROUP S.A.
AC8 AUSCANN GROUP HOLDINGS
MTL ARCELORMITTAL
3NY1 NYRSTAR
VONOVIA SE
FNG FNG NV
53812 AGEAS N.V.
DWS0D2 DWS AKTIEN SCHWEIZ
ARM ARIMA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
AL8 ALDERAN RESOURCES
MARELE INVERSIONES S.A.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
a.s.r.: Time to become more outspoken (post VIVAT). AEGON: 1H19F – unfavorable market movements to mask underlying positive trends. Brunel International: 2Q19 in line but outlook below due to phasing of projects. D'Ieteren: Strong Febiac July figures. GBL: Not the typical private equity investor NN Group: Near-term focus on integration of acquisitions, but what next? Vonovia: Strong operations, mindful of politics
Benelux Morning Notes
Avantium: From Synvina to ARP. BE Semiconductor Industries: Feedback from analyst & investor meeting. Cofinimmo: Sells another Brussels decentralized office building. D'Ieteren: Management favors large investment. German resi: Why this one is different. NN Group: To acquire VIVAT Non-life for €556m SBM Offshore: What about Mero?
Benelux Morning Notes
Intervest Offices & Warehouses: Acquires, builds and terminates. Lotus Bakeries: Acquisition of the BEAR production facility in South Africa. NSI: Update on its largest development. Proximus: Union leaks on staff reduction measures. Vonovia: Its moment in the sun. WDP: Enters Germany in JV with VIB
Benelux Morning Notes
Agfa-Gevaert: partial sale of Agfa Healthcare confirmed and EBIT beat. Deutsche Wohnen: No news is good news. German Resi: Berlin Mietspiegel 5% up, but ‘political noise' risk as well. Merlin Properties: Very strong 1Q19 organic growth. SBM Offshore: 1Q19 preview - Turnkey gets more in shape. Vonovia: Completes €744m capital increase
- Jaap Kuin
Vonovia/Higher guidance still prudent & taking a stand/HOLD
Proving its worth as the ‘risk-off' stock of the moment in Europe and raising its guidance while leaving more in the tank has driven Vonovia shares substantially higher post 1Q19. The biggest contributor for the VNA performance is the 1H19 asset valuation guidance (to be higher than 1H18 or >€1.4bn) and we increase our estimate from ?900m to €1.5bn (+€1.2/share in NAV). Management indicates its increased guidance is still very prudent as it is still ‘learning about the new business lin...
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: Slow boat to China. Adecco: 1Q19 results beat; quality beat and improved pricing. DSM: Pearls before swine. Kendrion: Automotive continues to be weak. PostNL: 1Q19 in line, 2019 outlook reiterated, mid term Parcels guidance encouraging. SBM Offshore: Liza Unity decided, more to follow. Sligro: Increasing its market position in the Dutch foodservice market. Solvay: Solid results on tough comps and headwinds, outlook slightly lowered. Vonovia: Boosts guidance and explains...
Benelux Morning Notes
DWS: Cost efficiency measures well on track, NNM worse than expected. KPN: Bloomberg reports bid talks instigated by Brookfield. NIBC: 2H18F preview - bringing home the goodies. Signify: Mixed 4Q18 update; margin improvement, but FCF trend negative. Staffing sector: Manpower 4Q18 results, 1Q19 outlook weak. January trend stabilization. Vonovia: The elephant has officially left the room. WDP: Boosts growth plan & strong value uplift
Benelux Morning Notes
Euronext: Markets slowdown in November. Melexis: Analyst day feedback. NN Group: PIM implementation of Delta Lloyd to add 9ppt. PostNL: >20% more parcel volumes between Black Friday and Sinterklaas / St Nicholas. Telenet Group: Not much new. Vonovia: 3Q results in line; Adapting to change
Benelux Morning Notes
ADO Properties: More refinancing activity Ascencio: Flat results, weak organic growth a.s.r.: Loyalis – organic capital accretion >9% Basic-Fit: New membership structure - the maths D'Ieteren: Febiac November figures German Resi: On the €2 modernisation cap and valuation Unilever: What a Horlicks of a deal
- Jaap Kuin
Real Estate Strategy/Segment vs style: time for value?
We investigate a presumed October 2018 ‘style' rotation and try to find factors driving performance over the last year, potentially giving direction for 2019. Overlaying segment performance (eg, German resi vs offices vs retail) and style factors ‘quality' (initial yield), ‘growth' (2016-2019F EPS CAGR), ‘value' (low PER), we find that value consistently underperformed from February to August, after which quality underperformed and high yielding assets outperformed from July. Retail rema...
GFC GECINA SA
BEFB BEFIMMO SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM SA
A2JH5S UNIBAIL-RODAMCO SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
NIUWF NSI NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
DWNI DEUTSCHE WOHNEN SE
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
ADJ ADLER GROUP SA
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
CRES COIMA RES S.P.A.
VONOVIA SE
- Jason Ball
- CFA
German Residential/Mietspiegel changes: Parsing the effects
The change in the Mietspiegel lookback period from 4 to 6 years was the one element of the coalition housing proposal we did not expect to move forward this quickly. In our view, the final decision to go ahead with it reflects the pace and extent to which political pressure has increased over the course of the year. Meanwhile, the change reinforces our view that capex will become an increasingly important source of differentiation over time. We see increased investment as a natural strategic rea...
- Jaap Kuin
- Jason Ball
- CFA
German Residential/Nothing comes for free
• We think the sector's status as a consensus overweight continues to be well deserved and short-term equity price dislocations should be bought. • In our view, the key themes for the next few years will be capital allocation, modernisation economics, and the impact of cost inflation. • We initiate with a BUY rating on Deutsche Wohnen and LEG Immobilien. • We initiate with a HOLD rating on ADO Properties and Vonovia.
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