reports
- Kurthan Atmaca
Kafein Yazılım (KFEIN TI) - Fairly valued, downgrade to HOLD
Fairly valued, downgrade to HOLD Kafein’s shares have rallied by 80% in TRY terms and outperformed the BIST-100 by 64% in the past six months. We have made minor changes to our estimates for 2019/20/21, which does not necessitate a revision in our DCF-based TP. After the recent rally, at current levels, we believe the stock is fairly valued and downgrade to HOLD from Buy.
- Kurthan Atmaca
Kafein Yazılım (KFEIN TI) - Comfortable with 2019 targets: Maintain ...
We met with Kafein Yazılım management to get an understanding of the recent developments and also their expectations for 2H. Considering the business volume generated until August-end, management feels comfortable about reaching its y-y growth target of 40% at the net profit level in 2019. The receivable collection period from Turk Telekom had risen to six months as of 2017, from the typical three months, probably due to shareholder problems. The problem worsened and this period rose to nine ...
- Kurthan Atmaca
TURKISH SOFTWARE - Soft power
Software has become an essential input for operations of virtually all businesses, across industries and sectors along with delving deeper into every aspect of consumers’ life. As the information and communication technology (ICT) sector continues to expand globally, in Turkey too software is one of the fastest growing segments. During 2014-18, Turkey’s software sector grew at 23% CAGR to TRY18.3b - sector exports reached USD773m, growing at 17% CAGR in the mentioned period. Over and above the ...
- Kurthan Atmaca
Kafein Yazılım (KFEIN TI) - 1Q19 results beat expectations: Maintain...
Kafein posted TRY3.9m net income in 1Q19 - much better than our estimate of TRY3.0m. No consensus estimates were available. Although the top-line was roughly in-line with our forecast, a higher than expected operational margin led to better than expected bottom-line performance. Following the strong 1Q19 results, we raise our EBITDA margin assumptions and lower our financial expenses assumptions, which lead to higher EPS estimates. Consequently, our DCF and peer group multiple based TP goes up ...
- Kurthan Atmaca
Kafein Yazılım (KFEIN TI) - 4Q better than expected: Maintain Buy
Kafein posted TRY6m net income in 4Q18, better than our estimate of TRY5m. No consensus estimate available. Although top-line was below our forecast, higher-than-expected operational margin led to the better than expected bottom-line performance. Following 2018 results, we raise 2019-21E (refer exhibit 2) for EBITDA and net profit due to better than expected operational margin. As such, we also increase our DCF-based TP from TRY10.1 to TRY10.5, and maintain BUY.
- Kurthan Atmaca
Earnings Review / Kafein Yazılım (KFEIN TI) - 3Q results missed esti...
Kafein Yazilim posted TRY2.5m net income in 3Q18, below our estimate of TRY3.5m. A long holiday period in 3Q affected top-line performance, causing a miss also at the bottom-line. The other reason for the bottom-line miss was that some invoicing was postponed to 4Q, which moved net profit of TRY1m to the next quarter. Following quarterly results, we revise our estimates and lower our target price by 9.7% to TRY9.45. Although Kafein Yazilim’s financial performance has been less than ideal this q...
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