reports
- Chris Wickham
Beldray leads the way
Beldray’s strong performance and better than expected online and supermarket sales were the salient features of UPGS’s latest unscheduled trading statement. With continuing momentum in the order book and increasing resilience due to balanced distribution across its trading channels, we upgrade our full year FY2021 forecasts and argue that, at the current price of 98p, the shares would have to rise a full 50% to reach our 150p fair value. UPGS anticipates that underlying EBITDA in FY2021 will be...
- Chris Wickham
Ultimately, there’s brand value
What could have been a “year of living dangerously” for UPGS was a year of living positively. Today’s headline preliminary FY2020 results contain few surprises, so investors should in our view reflect on the company’s relatively upbeat stance for the near-term outlook. Despite new Covid measures, a combination of effective brand management, new distribution channels and geographical expansion augurs well for sustainable revenue growth. We maintain our assessment of fair value for UPGS’s share...
- Chris Wickham
Coronavirus disrupts H2 sales revenue
Ultimate Products (UP Global Sourcing Holdings PLC), which in recent half-years significantly accelerated its trading momentum, looks set to suffer from coronavirus related disruption to its business in the second half. The company has made a trading update announcement this morning and as a result we are withdrawing our financial forecasts until there is greater certainty.
- Chris Wickham
Positive End to FY2019 Confirmed
UPGS’s pre-close FY2019 trading statement confirmed a previously stated view on 17th July that FY2019 would end on a positive note. The company will announce preliminary full year results on 5th November 2019. Ahead of then, underlying trends remain firmly positive. We upgrade FY2020 forecasts too. Sales revenue in FY2019 grew by 40.8% to £123.3m. The company’s most recently guided range was £121.5m to £122.0m. EBITDA is expected to be 53.4% higher at £9.9m compared with our £9.7m...
- Chris Wickham
Further positive surprises – growing well!
UPGS looks to end FY2019 on an extremely positive note. Its trading statement issued today indicates that sales revenue will be above both our own and market expectations. Moreover, profits (EBITDA and pre-tax) should also beat our estimates. With sales growth outperforming across the group, management strategy appears on track. After recent share price weakness, valuation metrics look supportive for the share price. In terms of valuation, we remain firmly of the view that 100p is a reasonab...
- Chris Wickham
Good reasons for optimism
UPGS’s half-year results included a 47.3% rise in underlying pre-tax profits, bolstered significantly by a 21% normalised increase in sales revenue. An optimistic tone on H2 sales prompts us to raise our full year forecasts and that has positive implications for both the group’s financial strength and valuation. UPGS translated brisk sales growth into strong profit gains in its first half. Underlying EBITDA increased by 48.4% to £6.6m, underlying pre-tax profits by 47.3% to £5.9m and adj...
- Chris Wickham
Sustaining strong growth momentum
UPGS’s positive trading update, released yesterday, prompts us to raise our key estimates by more than 10% for all of revenue, EBITDA and adjusted EPS. Importantly, the company distinguishes itself from the more troubled UK consumer facing businesses with 24% potential sales growth in FY2019. The RNS revealed that the positive momentum referenced in its last trading statement - issued 6th November 2018 - has continued. As a result, we upgrade our FY2019 forecasts only a couple of months l...
- Chris Wickham
Feeling good about FY2019
After an unquestionably challenging year, UPGS delivered FY2018 preliminary earnings results in line with consensus as underlying EPS was 5.4p. Sales revenue of £88m and £6.5m adjusted EBITDA reconfirmed an earlier announcement. UPGS’s international business continued to gain ground as a portion of sales due to a strong H2. Moreover, FY2019 appears to have started well and we raise our EBITDA estimate from £6.9m to £7.1m, largely due to better than expected sales revenue: the future feel...
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